Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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The current FS is based on heap leach recovering X% of the contained copper. Cu recovery falls off. A cliff when ore type becomes chalcopyrite dominant. The only way to go form this state to one where copper recovery is dramatically higher is to increase recovery in the chalcopyrite dominant mineralisation. Teh only way to do that is to replace heap leach with some sort of vay/agitated leach preceded by soem sort of oxidation system. Albion is a good example. AL that needs a radically different plant layout and brings in the need for a tailings storage facility. DOing this of course completely changes the pit limits. It’s a completely different project that may wel increase npv and increase it by a lot. Please dont underestimate the work it will take to bring it to FS standard
To put it simply, they just wouldn’t do it if it wasn’t going to increase the NPV by a reasonable amount. People are just making negatives out of positive news.
They won’t re-do everything, they will just tweak it. The share price is doing pretty good today considering the market and suggests it must have bottomed. Any placing will likely come after news on the improved recovery so anyone waiting to get in cheaper might be disappointed. Also it will probably be a private placement to keep AE out. If it comes from a miner/potential bidder then this should fly. It was undervalued before the deal and its undervalued now regardless of any deal, even at its high it still wasn’t overvalued.
True except what they have cant be called a Definitive Feasibility study. (DFS). TM is onnrecord in ens and video saying they are reloading at the processing path or be something different to heap leach. One can only assume something like Albion process or similar. This is a fundamental change to,the project requiring almost,every aspect from geology to mine planning to processing and environmental impacts to be reworked to feasibility standard. Thats. A huge body of work which can be expected to,take as long as the previous FS. They are going to need a whole lot more than £2.5m to do that.
I note he also said he is expecting Consultants reports soon. Thats more bills coming in a hurry
As I've said before, Manini needs to focus on getting away a raise for around £2.5m at circa 1.6p (10% dilution), along with some forward guidance. Following this the sp will have a solid base in the high 1's, but more importantly he can then focus his attention on getting the final permit without worrying about running out of cash. He can also re-start talks with partners or whoever else at this point, but shouldn't make any deals until that license is secure so he has a stronger position in any negotiations. He's f@cked up the order of things on a number of occasions and I hope he has the good sense to see what needs to come first before anything else. If he does a raise around that 1.6p level then he can hit me up for £100k and I'm sure many PIs will jump at the chance to average down. Once the final license lands the sp will be in the 3's and he can raise a small amount again if he needs more time to find a suitable partner. The assets are strong, but he needs to get them shovel ready before doing any deals. If he doesn't pull his finger out and do this raise the sp will be near that 1.6p mark soon enough as people think a raise is coming and will continue to move toward the exit. He then has to raise at 1.2p and so on. You'd think he would have learned his lesson by now. Anyway, sorry for your losses guys. Good luck and I may see you again as an investor if Tony can get that raise sorted. Lots of potential but not a lot of cash at the moment.
I know for a fact that similar companies are receiving a lot of offers right now and they aren't even at the same stage. It’s got the DFS and it’s independently valued and ready to go. Sure companies could wait to try and take it out cheaper but it would be negligible compared to what t it will make in production and they will want 100% to get it on the road quickly rather than build a stake.
What are the chances of actually getting Manini booted out? Based on his brilliant leadership and outcome we see today for shareholders.
IMP only this share will now just flounder around until March as doubt Manini is working hard to find a solution/ plan to get us out of the hole he's dug.
Buy out - we can pray for even 5p, but who wants to buy right now when they will just give it 6 months and even after a cash raise, we will still be at bobbing around 2p - IMO only as cash raise will just swamp the market with cheap shares.
I'm stuck in for the longer term now, I'm not solidifying the paper loss yet as there is real potential still in assets. Rather praying heads roll for incompetance and blatant lies to investors !
GLA
Grasberg mine.
I agree, great assets, atrocious BOD.
A really embarrassing display from Manini and co IMO.
Oh well in the bottom drawer it goes in the hope of a take-over.
It wont be good for existing investors. We've had our chance. Rinse and repeat.
Can this dropping more as confidence disappears, but it'll either bounce up (as suggested below) or just be turgid. I've got a fairly small outlay here and still high high risk for me, but i'll continue the interest nonetheless as the commodity is a good thing, management perhaps not so much!
30th june 2020 cash was £2.028mil -
I note that back in 30th June 2019 they had just £460k cash but didn't raise until March 2020 some 9 months later when they raised the £3..36m.. (off market raise)
so yes they will need funds at some stage if they are going to start drilling on Beutong, when is anyone’s guess. They may be fine for months yet and a lot can happen in months.
Ive only got a small hold left here and will watch developments with interest
More cash might have be wasted on the failed Aeturnum fiasco.
Next quarterly report will provide better picture on cash and burn rate
Yes fair enough the cash at 30 June will be exhausted
The market knows that ARS is desperate for cash to stay in business as a going concern.
Is ARS in the position to chose who put food into its begging bowl?
The lower it goes the more of a takeover target this becomes. Even if it doesn’t bounce soon it will one day re-rate out of the blue on takeover news and erase everyone’s losses. Improved recovery rates coming soon which should push up the NPV.
I doubt ARS will let Aeturnum anywhere near. That's a worse outcome that Aeturnum selling out.
Now that would take the biscuit!
Quite the reverse, Aeturnum may pick up another 20% below 1p in next placing.
Its Aeturnum selling out. It picked up 20% of ARS at 0.9p from memory and then did nothing but waste a year.
Raise will come and at what price 2p or less