focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Divesting of non core assets can’t be the reason for the suspension surely? Interesting no value put on the transaction. Tuppenth ha penny imo
excellent news or not so what�s the verdict here? I am interested in your thoughts on this and what it could mean for re-entry to the market.
This is why I asked about Hydrogen being created..... >>>>> http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy/toyota-to-build-world-first-hydrogen-and-renewables-plant-20171204-gzycr9.html
tahmoor coalmine !!(see FT ) in Oz which suggests that their intention is maybe less about a move into renewables and more about security of energy supply for their steel-making businesses. Puts a slightly different slant on actions here but does illustrate that they have cash and are spending.
Thanks casp... I obviously have a lot to learn and value your input here.
While it is impossible, at this stage ,to know whether the proposed deal will complete and if it does what price the stock will be on readmission there are ways to make estimate(or is it a guess?) At face value the transaction consists of GFC getting a half share of the "new " company which will consist of ARL's previous IP and assets which the market at suspension valued at £45 mill and a power station(previously valued at £61 mill) with long-term raw material supply and delivery contracts aimed at producing and selling 220Mwh of energy to an adjacent steel mill. So the new company will have assets valued at £106 and around 250 mill shares in issue , therefore based on assets, an SP of 42p BUT The power station was loss-making on closure in April(?)revenues £72 mill, losses£5.5 mill and will presumably be intended to make a profit on reopening and in the recent interview the phrase "highly accretive " was used, so maybe we should revalue the power station when functioning at , say a 30% premium eg £79 mill ,hey presto new SP(45+79/250) = 48p BUT If we seek to value the power station on an NPV basis(ie the current value of a future revenue stream, after accounting for initial costs)my rough estimate(based on the figures drawn from the assumption of a 1.35 interest cover) is an NPV of £154 mill (ie 61p for the power station alone, but lots of caveats to that!) Finally we could assume that a company with around £150-£200 mill in debt, is likely to need a market cap similar, or else debt ratios would be unacceptable to the market, GFC will know this and must therefore assume a market cap of ~£200 mill ie SP 80p All of this is pure estimate/guess work even though it is based on the published figures and could well be wide of the mark. In general terms the move is likely to be SP positive because of the association with a big co. and the apparent strategy of creating a fairly significant revenue stream in the near(ish) future , a broadening of the opportunity base and the city endorsement implied by the funding. Comments(and criticisms) welcome!
I’m struggling to see a negative here. I am just a novice at this game though, but something’s telling me I should have gone baubles deep here when I had the chance. Like you said it seems to be a good match, obviously the fund raising for the project could be a dampener however I am in for the long here as with all my investments and knowing what I know about how much Wales has been investing and funding it’s co2 emissions reductions and with the coal plant being close to home it’s looking pretty positive to me. A question I have is will the plant be producing hydrogen and if so what amounts could be expected, the reason being I know wales has been looking toward hydrogen as a major player in fuel for homes and transportation.
I don't know what to think.It's a bit unnerving having my shares suspended as there is nothing I can do about it. I'm hoping its positive and we come out well out of this, but am also wary as well. On the face of it, it seems a good match up and consolidation in this industry is expected.
And the matter in hand. There’s talk of this in 70s when reintroduced what’s people’s opinions on simec etc....
Atlantis Resources 1 UKOG 0
You were cutting that fine with only 20mins to spare:)
Ok let's settle this once and for all. It was sarcasm/comedy about the fact Atlantis has just announced details about merging into a megatron powerhouse and I had gone and out all my green into ukog. You need a bit of humour being invested in ukog. So for the last time I hold stock in both, exited for both, will find out in the next month or so about Atlantis's deal and intentions and UKOG are to drop the mother of all RNS'S tomorrow morning at 7am, if you and your hype/ramping crew are to be believed. So come 7am 18th December when this rns drops detailing us about billions of barrels of oil being purged come straight onto here and call me out for the fool I am and get your apology. If not then may we never speak again and you take every last penny out of ukog along with me and very quickly get it into Atlantis as quick as possible. What do you think?
Boobs pleas leave this board, as you can see Theres not one argument in progress nor has there been for some time. Take one look at ukog's on the other hand and it's akin to a warzone. Why? Because people are rapidly losing trust and getting burnt my point was Atlantis is a REAL company , with REAL people, and guess what a REAL product. So all the best to striking oil in the Sussex hills or undeneath the north terminal duty free foundations. But Atlantis plc and Red T energy are real company's at the forefront of the fourth industrial renewable revolution. I've got a couple of g's still in U.K.O.M.G as a 1000-1 rank outside bet that I need it to double now to break even , but nothing in comparison to the 10 large In here which only went in through careful research and analysis and a gut belief this was the way forward as it's now looking More and more likely. 6p party can't come soon enough and il still be £10 down from the brokers sale fee:)
Our little has been covered in the Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/14/sanjeev-gupta-takes-first-step-london-stock-exchange-renewable/
It's simple since have agreed to purchase shares from arl in return for a number of opportunities to be passed Arl's way. Researching through Simecs most recent acquisitions and partnerships I think it's looking to pool a lot of resources into its ambitious plan. Fantastic news for us the share holder IMHO. However Have a merry Christmas all and a very very very prosperous new year.
Just watched the interview with Tim Cornelius. That is one confident guy with big ambitions. Seems like a well put together plan with supply and off-take agreements all lined up. Exciting times.
Please ignore these nasty trolls there bitter and twisted they've been conned by a rainbow chasing 2 bob oil outfit ukog who can't even deliver a simple honest runs regarding flow rates. This is because all they've found is mud and water. For the record Atlantis is legit and about to go big time, on and is actually a real business operating with real business leaders, titans if industry not some lifestyle aimers hoodwinking the innocent hardworking investor.
Hi Folks - I have now read through this morning RNS and offer the following summary (factual) and observations (speculative). The transaction essentially means that ARL are paying around £44mill , in the form of an all-share offer for the Uskmouth power station, currently closed, but which last year was valued at £61 mill , with a revenue of £72 mill and annual losses of £5.5 mill . The plan is to redesign the power station at a cost of £200 million to generate 220 mw/h of energy by consuming pelleted fuel manufactured adjacent to the site by N+P from around 1 million tonnes of (household?) waste per annum. The output will be contracted to GFG for a 20 year period(probably for steel production by the related party GFG) with " a minimum contracted cash flow" The costs of conversion are to be met by "medium to long-term senior debt" and an equity raise for "working capital" On the face of it this is an enormous leap in scale by ARL . What is currently a £45 mill MC company is embarking on a £200 mill "Fixed price, date certain turnkey project" over less than 2 years to meet a 20 year energy supply contract. .In addition ARL have an offer to make "a number of acquisitions from the GFG alliance(funding?)" Clearly without the shelter of their new and significantly larger partner this would be a non-starter. So much for the facts now for the speculation- for ARL to be able to raise £200 mill of "senior"ie relatively cheap debt the presence of GFG is essential and I cannot help but suspect that , if all goes well, ARL will be subsumed into the GFG empire within a year or three. The reasonably good news for current holders is that the takeout price will be above yesterdays close and may be several times that. GFG's stated aim is to "create >1gig of renewable energy in the UK within 3 years" ARL's IP may well contribute to that but ARL as a discrete organisation is now less likely. All just my opinion/ surmise.
Didn;t some company puit in £2 million quid before at 59p? They usually have some conditions about later takeovers etc. I am pretty sceptical about this. The upscaling is of course welcome but for years they have been trumpeting how good the product is and now they are keen on diversification. My money is on a discounted placing. Or one for institutional mates with juicy terms.
On the face of it some consolidation seemed likely - interesting about the diversification. I see there will be another fund raise.. "Atlantis expected to carry out a further equity fund raising".... What price can we expect then do you reckon?
Just skimmed the RNS - out of the blue! First (very rough) thoughts The new merged organisations of ARL as currently exists MC ~£45 mill and a functioning pellet-driven power station(in 2020) generating 200 mwh per annum earning~£10 mill pa profits (fag-packet). value of the lot ~ £100 mill. So on the face of it looks positive , existing shareholders would own half of a £100 mill co. rather than all of a £45 mill co.Implying a ~10% uplift in SP on re admission. BUT lots of other implications all to complex to analyse yet.
Well said, you win some and lose some. As long as the winners overides the losers
I'm back in today. Looks like this is oversold and a reversal is starting so I got back in. Hope I'm right but this is the risk we take when share dealing.