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Actual Values:
5.1MT = 8.7% Zinc (440kT) & 2.6% Lead (133kT)
Our 23.44% Share = Zinc 103.1kT & Lead 31.2kT
88% Zinc Recovery = 90.73kT
80% Lead Recovery = 24.96kT
* Updated for todays metal prices*
Zn $2850 p/T = c$260M
Pb $2050 p/T = c$51M
Say c$290M
Processing cost of US$21.25/t
Mining cost of US$46.50/t
These costs are based on Jan 2021 so add 15% for inflation and current price increases => c$80
1.195MT (23.44% of 5.1MT) pay material
Multiplied by $80 p/T combined costs
= c$95M
So....$290M - $90M = c$200M (£170M)
Irish corporate tax is 25% of the £170M = £127.5M clear.
We are valued about 2% of what is profit in the ground proven..........madness
Never mind if it's extended with these recent drills.
Easy buy tbh
top post gino. no brainer really , glta
Nice reminder Gino of the potential value of Stonepark. What is our mcap? lol
I doubt we will ever see anything like those values sadly - and here is why: if you were Glencore, and we held out for silly money what would you do? I would buy G11 (since they must do that to get control of the asset) then i would announce a $100m work program and there is no way we could finance our share, so we would be diluted to death. Of course the risk to Glencore is that a mid sized player or fund buys Arkle and can fund their share of future drilling. So, on the basis of that, i expect Glencore will make an offer for our share but it will likely be for a low amount, say $10-20m, just to simplify their ownership when they take over G11. I sincerely hope that Teeling is preparing for such possibilities, and if we see another major take a share of Arkle in another placing then I will mortgage the house to buy as much as I can here because it is an auction with Glencore and one other deep pocket (which can afford a cash share of major drilling) which is the only way we will see anything resembling a % of the value here for current shareholders. Would love to hear other (ideally different) reasoned views.
$15m = £13m
Divide by 345m shares = 3.7p per share!
That's a premium of over 650% of current SP!!!!!
Still far too little but come on market/Pi's get with it!
GL.
Whilst the numbers here are unlikely to be a sell on valve, it doesn't change the fact that based on today's price we are looking at £120M+ profit.
I agree, i expect a 8-12% sale price vs asset value, would be what the target is. £10M would see a lovely SP of circa 10X
The biggest variable will be if this extends west.....this far it suggests it is possible, then add that extension as additional asset value.....easy to add another 1Mt to the calculations
The point if the calculations are to show the disconnect between SP and what is proven in the ground already.....not what's coming
Norway Nell, DvH et al - nothing wrong with your arguments and points. We already know that JT has turned down one offer from Glencore previously and that whatever one’s view of him, he has a fair history of mercurial dealmaking (African Diamonds etc). Furthermore Glen are awash with cash as witnessed by their almost daily acquisitions of own shares recently - for £millions and millions. Arkle is back-pocket cash even at 10-20x today’s mcap. That said my own fear is that Glen aren’t daft either, and we end up with a situation (eg like at Ithaca a few years ago) where minority shareholders were forced to accept an offer way below true value (albeit still v profitable for most). I just hope that Jonno gets his dealmaking trousers on the right way round here.
theres more than glencore operating in ireland with deep pockets that could bid. there are several big names there
Hopefully the results of the drilling of the first hole in the latest Stonepark programme (commenced in September) will be released this side of Christmas to whet the appetite of investors. G11 have stated that the last 2 holes of the current programme will be completed before year end. Then we have the additional hole as announced recently. You never know, Teeling might surprise us with news about our other projects eg gold, lithium....