We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
We are sitting at the bottom of a wave, historically these last 4-8 weeks. Can sometime stretch longer if this dips further. However if this pans out to be the bottom of the current wave, next week or 2 we should see a sharp rise.
ATB.
When this has MOMO, the FOMO will explode! 😈
There's no doubt about it that Nick and the board made the wrong calls re the placing, at least with the benefit of hindsight. Equally it's understandable why he would have expected the signing of the Anglo deal in 2023 to support the share price sufficiently in order to place at at least 3p in 2024, and maybe higher. Instead he got caught on the wrong side of a massive collapse in valuation for any non-cashed up small cap and we get to where we are now.
The warrants are a bit frustrating but in the grand scheme of things it's almost immaterial if the JV proves a roaring success. Before the placing there was 1.233B shares in issue and now there are 1.446B. A placing at a much more stomachable price would have meant perhaps 1.35B shares at this point with slightly fewer warrants.
To act like the lowball placing has blown any chance of meaningful returns is quite obviously daft.
@SK
I think we've both had a good run in UFO over the past month.
Must admit I took some off the table from my 0.12p - 0.14p entries and it has pulled back a little. & happy to discuss UFO on their bb.
-
Coming back to ARCM..
If you look into what is classed as a genuine Tier 1 deposit then the $1.9billion valuation for the whole ZPC project would probably place it towards the conservative end of a Tier 1 deposit. (Especially with copper prices on the rise).
In recent history, battles over some of these tier 1 assets have been fierce, extremely tactical and in many cases totally unexpected.
-
Tier 1 deposits are “Company making” mines. They are large, long life and low cost
Tier 1 deposits valuations typically in excess of $2billion +
Tier 2 - $500m+-$1.5bn.
The opportunity is certainly there for AA to prove up multiple structures and define a Tier 1.
They have committed sufficient cash to drill sufficient metres that by the end of Phase 1 drilling the market is going to have a very good idea of the size, scale and potential here.
Returning to the valuation target of $1.89billiom for ZPC.
AA would not commit that level of cash into drilling if they didn't think they wouldn't see a significant multiple on their outlay.
The valuation target likely provides an adjustable margin for either a Tier 1 discovery or mulplie Tier 2 discoveries (each outcome of which would be extremely value accretive).
Really, PP? I didn't realize that highly respected AIM junior mining analyst, John Meyer, had slated the incompetence of any other mining companies as directly and openly as he has Arc: "I wouldn't trust the Arc board to run a local sweet shop!"
Sadly, his assessment of their lack of ability is reflected in what has been happening in ARCM recently:
-failed due diligence on the Tingo shares, which are now suspended as a suspected fraud
-loss of almost $5m worth of available for sale securities from Arc's balance sheet
-massive overpayment on salaries (how these clowns can think their failed performance warrants about a million a year!)
-driving the share price down for a year and then placing an addition c20% of shares in free float at 5 year lows
@Portfolio Power
Thank you for posting the WHI research. Reading it now.
I used to have one of these for Alien at 2.7 but have since lost it.
Do you hold much value in these broker notes?
See it across a few boards.
Posting like some kind of deranged jealous jilted former lover.
Embarrassing comments really.
A new broker was brought in.
Whinging comments once you have been kicked into touch is desperately embarrassing stuff
ARCM clearly living rent free in the heads of some on here on the daily :-)))
The real risk in a company like ARCM comes from the incredibly poor management here - I'm not sure if anyone has ever doubted that a major will be able to find copper on our licences if there is any to be found, but with such poor leadership here which has led this company to the verge of bankrupcy and then done a placing at 5 year lows....well, it's hard to see how PIs will get any huge upside now. Sadly, NvS and his bunch of freeloading pals will still bleed a million a year out of Arc, which is a real shame. (I find the guy's behaviour at ARCM to have been an absolute disgrace - losing the only large cash/cash equivalent holding with no explanation, placing at multiyear lows rather than placing straight after the AAL deal was announced, etc. As noted junior mining AIM analyst John Meyer said, "I wouldn't trust the Arc board to run a local sweet shop!" Thing he's right on the money there.) Regardless, I've bought a couple of shares here to flip if and when this gets into the 2s (so, come on guys, get ramping please!) If it had a credible management team with integrity I'd have sunk this year's complete ISA allowance into Arc, but there's no way I'd want to risk a lot with someone like NvS at the helm.)
Zambian Copper Project (ZPC)
From WHI research:
The ZCP in the ZCB is a pre-resource project with significant potential.
Valuing potential is not straightforward, though history shows that tangible success (i.e.
discovery drill hole, maiden resource, resource upgrade, and progression through
engineering and economic studies) is likely to accrete significant value to ARC.
We determine a base value for the ZCP using the terms of the Anglo JV (first reported -
RNS 12.05.22):
• Phase 1 - Anglo will pay $14.5M in staged cash payments to Unico Minerals Ltd (67% ARC) and invest up to $24m in exploration expenditures (total $38.5M) within three years and 180 days of the signing of the Agreement (RNS 20.04.23)
to secure a 51% interest in ZCP.
-
• Phase 2 - Anglo may elect to increase its interest in the ZCP to 60% by investing a further $20M (total $58.5M) within two years of the completion of Phase 1.
-
Phase 3 – Anglo may elect to increase its interest in the ZCP to 70% by investing a further $30M (total $88.5M).
We determine the value of the ZCP using the value that Anglo places to earn 70% of the
project. Anglo will, in total, pay $88.5m for 70% of the ZCP project (which calculates at
$125.4m for 100%). ARC’s interest in the project was 67%, prior to Anglo’s involvement,
we therefore calculate that ARC’s stake is worth $84.7m (being 67% of $125.4m).
We consider that Phases 2 and 3 are dependent on exploration success, should the JV
advance beyond Phase 1 we would revise our valuation approach and fair value, but note
that in similar cases there has been a significant rise in the value of the junior partner.
We show what could be achieved in exploration success.
-
Valuing exploration success:
-
Based on our two examples – we are not aware of any other AIM listed explorers with
comparable recent success – we conservatively suggest that a maiden resource for the
ZCP could generate a 10x uplift in the value of ZCP.
This would likely represent the
completion of Phase 2 of the JV. Should the JV progress through Phase 3 (JV Completion
and reporting of updated resource) we anticipate an updated resource and suggest that
the uplift in value may reach 15x.
-
Some Conservative SP targets in the region of 10 x to 15 x for ARCM.
https://s2.q4cdn.com/256050873/files/doc_downloads/research_notes/2023/FN-ARCM-031123a.pdf
Of course I'm filtered dear cos I have shown you for the utter fraud ehat you are , and with most of you cowardly little turfs it's easier just to hide away from serious albeit easy questions.
Game set and match old bean.
I'll take that question.
In a commodity bull market there is A LOT more upside to be had from small caps than there is from established players. Of course as always it comes with more risk but that's the aim for any small cap investor, be in during boom times and be long gone during downturns.
ARCM may well prove to be a very good example. Anyone investing here over the past few years were caught out by a liquidity crisis on AIM and a copper market that never quite hot up enough to offset that, (as well as disappointing mgmt decisions).
But now ARCM is near 5 year lows, the long wait for the drilling campaign to get started is over and even the most negative of posters on here are saying 'copper prices set (sic) to rocket'
Of course many will choose to invest instead in the mining giants and will probably see very healthy returns but strike gold (well copper) in Zambia as is expected and the returns from 1.7p here will dwarf those from the likes of Glencore - too high risk for your average investor sure but more than worth the risk for those that have done their homework and have an appetite for exposure to outsized gains.
And a reminder https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1755895067699454248
Think some of you have got mixed up posting about the AA takeover on here.
Dont think BHP or any other potential suitor will give a flying fook about the few bob that AA have put into the JV with a tiny badly run little nonentity
like ARCM
ATVB
TNR
XXX
ps SpeshNeedsimpleSimon0p you are filtered so dont bother posting your usual cr4p
It would make even more sense to take Arc out before prove the licenses up, but would Zambian law allow it yet ?
Thinking about it would make more sense for Anglo to prove Arcs licence up and take Arc out to add more value to their shareprice.
PeasantBoy will be interesting to find out what the other licence in Zambia Arc are looking at. Bhp could bid for Arc to get the 30% in Zambia.
Lovely summary/perspective Pheasant ,hope you don't mind but I've copied it elsewhere (with the added problem of spinning out the SA businesses)
I think we are quite within our rights to follow your lead and answer no questions!!!, but what in your expert opinion will happen to this SP if anglo hit 1 or even multiple tier 1 deposits given their historical knowledge of these licences ????, that's why I'm here princess but remember only invest what you can afford to lose, a lesson the majority of you muppets obviously forgot to follow.
Inside BHP’s Anglo American bid: the £31bn tug of war over copper
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dd1ef011-841e-4771-b374-3ed1b41e1577?shareToken=2d34f716821ab4a043610aedc8c90833
if as widely reported by reliable sources that copper prices are "expected" to rise significantly, why dont you supposed investment and copper experts instead of putting your money into highly speculative ****e aim mining shares just buy copper futures?
interesting eh?
anyone brave enough to offer a sensible answer without abuse?
atvb
tnr
xxx
Yes it crossed my mind that Anglo would do well to crack on and produce some promising cores as the buyout negotiations develop.
An early start for the brains of the outfit this morning, possibly been up all night compiling an answer to my questions???, I have noticed you guys seem to be as efficient at digging up the past with no real factual contributions as most women........ impressive.
If Anglo is to/can survive as an independent, observers say it will need to tidy up its portfolio pdq.
Three significant developments could well occur and take place much faster than anticipated because of timing now: two of these are well publicised the third less so.
Spinning off/selling de Beers
Accelerating Woodsmith's JV investment being led by RBC and....
Driving/announcing/flagging up one or two significant copper deposits in Zambia.
The first two could each comfortably add $3-5bn to Anglo's mkt cap and a prospective tier one or a couple of meaningful tier 2 deposits in Zambia could add a not dissimilar figure as well...
Citibank believe Anglo's current copper assets are alone worth £30 a share, c£5 a share more than BHP's total offer.
Add in the above three plus other developments Anglo can accelerate we could have Anglo back to c£40 plus a share in value. And those Zambian assets.....NvS must be purring this w/e.
Yes, you're right he doesn't very often contribute anything even remotely truthful. More importantly the failure of the board to act professionally and capably is a much bigger issue for ARCM shareholders than the current and/or projected price of copper.
It's quite clear from the failure to say anything to the market about the complete Tingo fiasco (and what an absolute debacle that was) that the management have nothing but contempt for the market and their own shareholders. Someone should be taking accountability for the complete disaster of losing $5m in liquid balance sheet assets, but as per usual there is a deafening silence from the "executive chairman" whilst he and his board friends continue to milk almost a million a year out of the company. Had they not completely screwed up the Tingo situation, there would likely have been no need for a raise recently.
Which leads to the KCB - it doesn't matter how bad the drill results are, it has one very useful purpose in providing justification for management to keep drawing their ridiculous salaries. So the KCB will be drilled for the forseeable future.
Anyone interested in an ARCM investment, should research the "executive chairman" here and his history at Bumi (the only real leadership role of note which he's had) and the utter disaster that was. Nat Rothschild, as a major Bumi shareholder, had some interesting insights to share in public about NvS's (lack of) suitability for a leadership role. None of that is me putting a spin on things, it is all in the public domain and very easy to just Google and research for yourself - I strongly recommend doing it before investing a penny in ARCM (mind you, at this rate, a penny will buy you a share! So much for all those 10-20x fantasies of the rampers from 2021 was it, it's been so long I forget!)
Wow Fullers congratulations, this is indeed the first time ironically you have posted something that is indeed (PARTLY) true!!
The price of copper and indeed potential takeover of AA have at present absolutely no relevance whatsoever to ARCM as to date the nearest they, or the shareholders are to copper is the odd few 1p and 2p coins that lurk in their pockets or collection jar!!
ATVB
TNR
XXX
Well TNR for 1 is a veritable font of knowledge I trust his clear and concise answers to questions implicitly.
So I will be joining you on Monday morning.