London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I’m seeing a few posts stating that ARB is undervalued… I’m not sure we are. MCap is currently £540m which doesn’t seem to far off the mark to me. How are people arriving at the conclusion this well below where we should be given the current headwinds etc.
I also feel anything above 215 BTCs for July will beat market expectations.
massively undervalued for a growth stage company, with high profit levels, large assets, low debt and massive expansion plans in the bag, in a commodity sector with rapidly rising price point
And if we benchmark against RIOT and MARA then we are an investment with good upside
Who are you? "We", usually means a paid Fudder. ARB is approaching its third birthday and has seen circa 350p a share so along comes a prima donna know all effing expert to slap us down.
It's all going to depend on the future expectations for BTC.
My own view is that BTC will easily reach $100k this year.
By using forward projections (aka wild guesses) for BTC, you can arrive at a DCF valuation of ARB, but I personally think that it's guesswork and charlatanism. Ultimately - the price is what people are prepared to pay for it and I'm happy buying/holding!
That's just my view and I'm OK that it's different to yours!
Amor - what are the margins of Argo?!
compare that to any other company - let me know when you find better
More impressive for margins would have been selling BTC at 60K USD on the companies behalf and buying back in at 28K USD. Currently we have a director who borrows against the upcoming value of BTC spending on the new farm in Texas. This share will stay pretty static or a long time if it's all spent before it's ever on the right side of the balance sheet.
I’m sure he would have if he knew that was going to play out, Flip the coin and imagine he would have sold all our Hodl at 60k and it went and hit 100k, Not so clever, Trading Btc seems a dangerous past time to me. Rather we hold and see where we are come Q4 but do understand the arguments for selling some.
@NickTN: "More impressive for margins would have been selling BTC at 60K USD on the companies behalf and buying back in at 28K USD."
Hindsight is a beautiful thing.
He's going to look like a genius if BTC quickly rises above 60K. Maybe he knows more about BTC than we do?
Even so when it hits 100k - what then. Bigger borrowing against?
What constitutes a profit here though? Holding all the bitcoin?
yep, playing against the broad sweep of the S2F model made a lot more sense than trying to second guess market volatility. The highest probability of maximising return on HODL in the medium term lies in the stretch between end of 2021 and run up to next halving. I've no doubt that was in the business planning and wouldn't be surprised to see a game changer strategy shift during that period.
Good point further clarity as to the strategy for Argo would be good.
It’s not restricted to Argo all the main NA miners seem to be using a Hodl strategy, I’d imagine lo and behold they all start selling around the same time to, That’s when you will see some converted for the balance sheet.
"Even so when it hits 100k - what then. Bigger borrowing against?"
The board has some smart people on it and I'm sure that they're thinking of the strategy.
Personally, I would say, sell *some* of it to keep the old-world accountants happy, but that's just my view.
Nick
He made a big thing about fiat being a depreciating asset hence we were hodling. He's rightly committed to bitcoin going forward to the point of converting his party to bitcoin. I don't think it would have gone down too well had he called in our main asset thereby demonstrating a lack of commitment to crypto. As others have mentioned, there's also the uncertainty and erratic value of bitcoin.
Quarters and years
The medium term strategy is HODL against the rise in BTC, while increasing productivity, enlarging capacity, and sowing seeds for diversification choices. If all the ducks line up for early 2022 then BTC over $100k, table institutional adoption environment, largest mining facility on stream, Pluto and opportunities to diversify on the back of Taproot, by state digital currencies, blockchain fintech vision horizons massively expanded etc etc.
"What constitutes a profit here though? Holding all the bitcoin?"
Yes. Profit is recognised when the coins are mined but so is any subsequent change in HODL value. The profit shown in the report and accounts includes both with the BTC value taken as at the date of the accounts i.e. 31/12/2021 for the next FY accounts.