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I wouldn't be surprised, now that US & EU will have to re-evaluate their energy profile. Russia is also threatening to cut off uranium supply.
Hi Jungle,
If my amateur analysis is right I see us climbing up to and through 350p. Similar to the 2009/10 rise.
The drivers are low shares in issues, royalty model, metals profile and non Russian commodities. Furthermore, the war will hopefully one day end and Ukraine will be rebuilt but they won’t even want as much as a tap washer from Russia!
As always though seriously consider selling half on a double or at least a slice and spread your risk.
Usual caveats
Trek
Since Mar 10th the SP in Berkley Energia BKY have risen 70%.APF had and may still have a large shareholding and royalties in the company. As has been discused here The Salamca mine was not going to happen but with all EU countries reassessing there energy needs I am wondering if the Spainish Gov might be thinking of changing their minds and giving the green light to this Uranium mine. If so that would be great for APF.
This share really is a hidden gem. I've been building my holding here gradually since 2019 and my lowest Buy price was 105.06p on 21/09/20 - so I'm a happy bunny. I really can't se any Share Buybacks - only 214m shares in issue so hopefully not.
Well gents, I stand corrected on the share price high, not sure what I was looking at, apologies all :-)
I remember selling some at 190p in the wife's ISA and thought it was a lot longer ago than that. APF have have been a great income for me us over the 10 years or so, could not be happier with them, especially lately.
I witnessed APF climbed to 220p+ when it happened 3 years ago. But I cried like a baby because I sold all my holdings in batches, up till 180p. Then the train left without me. Not gonna make the same mistake this time.
£ 3.07. In. 2012
13martyn13 SP peaked at 225p in May of 2019.
Absolutely agree the dividend won't be compromised. Quite clear the company are well ahead of their projected debt reduction - though for most royalty and streamers it isn't a problem continually refinancing as cashflow builds and diversifies through further acquisitions. For me the focus in the near term is Piaui going into pilot production sometime in May. APF have the option to increase their GRR on the nickel/cobalt asset for up to $70m. I'm sure Marc is quite keen to ensure Piaui goes a long way to replacing Kestrel as that begins to run off.
Dividends won’t be compromised. It’s pretty central to the business plan. These guys walk the walk!
‘ Purpose
Financing investment in natural resources to enable a sustainable future
Strategy
To become a leading natural resources company through investing in high quality projects in preferred jurisdictions with trusted counterparties, underpinned by strong ESG principles
Anglo Pacific is the only non-precious metals royalty and streaming companies listed on the London Stock Exchange (APF) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (APY) investing in high quality projects in preferred jurisdictions with trusted counterparties, underpinned by strong ESG principles.
With a diversified portfolio of 16 assets across five continents and 10 commodities, its business model provides investors with a de-risked exposure to the mining sector.
Anglo Pacific has a strong balance sheet and uses its free cash flow to grow its portfolio and pay dividends.“
Usual caveats
Trek
Mantos already looking at another expansion - even though this current expansion isn't fully operational yet. That is great news for APF as any increase in production or expansion comes for free. Osisko, who have a stream on the silver production at Mantos are projecting a 60-70% uplift over the next FY
Agreed on the buybacks, certainly not at this price, APF are at about an 8 year high I think.
APF just tweeted about Capstone Mining Corp and Mantos Copper's merger.
APF have a 1.525% royalty on all copper from Mantos Blancos mine in Chile, which contributed US$5.67M to APF in 2021.
All seems to be getting better and better at the moment, without tempting fate.
Q4 div depends on full year less previous 3 quarters. APF have had a good year, expect a Q4 div in excess of 1.75p and a modest increase in quarterly dividends thereafter. Please, please no buybacks, you must have better ideas than that, don't you?
I wouldn’t be surprised if the final divi is kept at the same as the previous three, at 1.75p giving 7p for the year.
Then going forward moving up on a quarterly basis from the 1.75p level.
Surely better to smash down the debt - especially with rising interest rates.
With prices as they are the BOD have a bit of a quandry as APF must be throwing off cash like no tomorrow. I expect a minimum final divi of 5 pps and that will use about £10 million but they must be earning close to that each month. Pay down debt or what..... I guess we find out next week.
Take out the technical blip and nickel is still on a roll esp since March. Likewise cobalt and uranium. Uranium is a good way to play the nuclear element of the FAANG 2.0 rotation that merril lynch is pushing.
You can see the commodity prices here
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cobalt
And APF pf here although I think it’s probably shifted a little since.
https://www.anglopacificgroup.com/portfolio/
Also still getting a +5% yield here, well covered and should increase on the back of metals prices or even a special divi.
Usual caveats
Trek
Does anyone know whether apf still has interests in HZM? At one point, they seemed to have an equity stake of over 20%, plus an option to aquire a NSR(now expired). The only reference I can find from apf about this is(from 2020 results):
"£4m of non-core asset disposals, mainly Berkeley Energia and Horizonte Minerals shares, to majority finance the share buyback"
Nothing is listed on the (current)website as regards HZM so has the entire stake been divested? Given that the Araguaia project now seems to be under construction, was this a bad time to sell down a stake, particularly to fund a buyback? Though hard to know how much it may have been diluted of course. Apf not listed on their major shareholders page.
hope we have left the <150p train and are now heading to the 200s. would be a shame if it languishes in the 130-140p range again.
Yep, Kestrel will be throwing off the cash so will definitely be a record 1st quarter and then will just depend on how prices hold up. $400 ish average for the full year would do nicely and anything above that would be amazing. Market seems to be assuming this will drop back in the next few days which given some of the falls in other commodities MAY be right but who knows.
I have been adding a few more as at this rate our FY forecast will be covered in H1 so I am expecting a very very bullish set of results and 1st Q update ??
So, 2021 was a record year and now coking coal is up 50% this year? Unless I'm reading that wrongly.
This is going to be mega for APF SP. Don't think the market gets it. Just added from my profit from GLEN ??
Been there for a few days now. Updated daily here:
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/SGX-ACF1%21/
OMG @ today's apparent met coal price.
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$635.0/t
Cobalt LME 3m US$82,000/t
This is only from one source, so part of me wonders if it is accurate.. but on the other hand maybe it is just a slightly delayed move relative to what has happened with thermal coal prices. I though $400odd/t was pretty ludicrous. $635/t is insane. Lets hope kestrel is selling a few shipments at this level. And also cobalt at $82000/t is pretty sweet, I think it was at about $52000/t when they completed the aquisition of the stream.