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It was in response to your claim that the VB process was led by BL.
"APF simply jumped at the opportunity to tag onto that deal."
Who cares how it happens? As long as it's happened... The fact remains that they've recorded record quarter/year and the share price has not yet caught up.
The people who deserve credit for the VB transaction is Wheaton. APF simply jumped at the opportunity to tag onto that deal.
They've just recorded a record quarter/year. As far as I understand, that's been heavily influenced by the Voisey's Bay acquisition, which was led by BL? I see they've also just produced a new website. I like how they've shown more of the team.
This share is highly correlated with the commodity price cycle and I expect it to gain significantly over the coming months.
I could be 100% wrong. I am biased. Do your own research.
I entirely agree. Company by own admission has struggled to get the share price where it deserves. I was hoping for a heavy hitter from outside who would bring a fresh perspective. Markets clearly unimpressed as well . Disappointed
I can't believe there wouldn't have been significant interest in the CEO role. Disappointed they haven't attracted a bigger hitter to the role. The outlook for APF and the diversified royalty space is very compelling, and many would have fancied the opportunity. MBL has always left me a little underwhelmed whenever I've heard him present.
That'll do !
The 2016 report still mentions a crinum royalty and suggests it was based on land ownership(like kestrel).
https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReportArchive/a/LSE_APF_2016.pdf
Looking at the old rns I also saw reference to a royalty not only over kestrel but also the crinum mine. This was oporated by bhp and stopped production quite a decade or so ago(uneconomic I think). However it has since been sold and the new owner is looking to return it to production. There was an accident at the end of last year which has delated restart.
Sadly I can find much information on what APF actually own(not sure if what ever royalty they had maybe only covered open pit and not underground or something). They are not great at actually listing exactly what they own. I would still like to know what happened to the groundhog royalty. Though obviously these things do not fit with the 'look at us we're a super clean battery company narative'.
Cobalt hovering around $70,000 which is a 3.5 year high I believe.
Over the past 3 days I have had a number of meetings online with the CEO s of mining companies through the Mines & Money portal and the message , loud and clear, is that the world is heading for a major deficit in Copper and Uranium in the next 5 years. I suspect that the same can be said for cobalt. I classify all of these as future commodities whether for EV's or power.
Ah, ok to be fair four mile predated him too and despite difficulties may have actually have performed ok.
Very decent results, a little ahead of what I expected. And strong short term outlook. 'Amazed' the SP is still lower than it was at points during h1 of last year. The price enviroment is a really fortunate thing at the moment as it will be good to see debt come down and hopefully further meanful income streams added. Piaui could contribute meaningfully and assuming things develope as planned the intial royalty and equity investments there could be proven to be a good move, the upsize option potentially making it a core asset.
I'm not so fussed about JT going. I'd have been happy for him to stay too. The absoute core here is kestrel and that predates him. He's made some good moves I would say, LIORC has turned out well, Voiseys Bay so far has performed well(though I would argue is not without risk, given possible developments in battery chemistry). Narrabri and Four Mile arguably have not been so successful. I think he's improved a lot, but I'd also say he is not the best at selling the company. I also get irritated with the excessive use of the word 'transformational'. I think truely, it'll take 10 yrs to really say how well he has done. I still think he should have looked for something sizeable in copper when it was cheaper.
I was looking back at some old rns and found this from 2005 relating to kestrel:
'coal royalty receipts from the Kestrel and Crinum mines, operatedby Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton respectively, were £5,313,000 (2003: £3,376,000). The independent valuation of these interests at the year-end was A$141.3 million(£57.6 million)'
Lol at that valuation. Obviously the £ has devalued a fair bit since then, but still. A big part I think of kestel turning out so powerful has been changes to the way queensland royalty rates are calculated, possibly also increases to the reserves/lom, improvements in mining tech. I wonder on what basis it was initially aquired?
Agree with your thoughts on JT.
He's going to be heading up Cotec. Shares are currently suspended, but I'm keeping an eye out for when they come out of the trading halt.
Here's the website:
https://cotec.ca/
Such a shame JT is off - he has such vision and it is clearly paying off. Anyone know where he is off to next? Personally I would like to be an early investor in any new venture he is associated with.
Additional Comment:
"Sales volumes from Kestrel were lower than expected during 2021. This shortfall is expected to be recovered during the first half of 2022 and delays the period in which mining moves away from our private royalty land by a further quarter. With stronger coking coal prices at the beginning of this year compared to last, this bodes well for earnings in 2022."
Roughly another 18 months
Nice graph, showing the performance of Cobalt over the past year:
https://twitter.com/FirstClassMetal/status/1486356280251985922/photo/1
Even better than the rare earth metals and copper. Very few people realise that APF is now a play on cobalt.
A good set of results. A couple of years ago the BOD said they intended to pay out 60% of profits as dividends, so I am wondering if there may be an increased final dividend.
Any active traders will have noticed, that this share has some very dubious operators; same old tricks from the bucket-shop days, quickly pulling orders. Funny to watch them. Same old spoofing tricks as described in Flash Crash.
Quite a few companies like APF in Canada and Australia but as far as I know it's more or less unique on the FTSE.
I like the business model a lot - so many tiddlers try to play with the big boys and set up operations (and big commitments / debts) only for the ambition to come undone. Their agility has enabled them to refocus at minimal cost.
I'm slightly sceptical about all this transitioning and future commodities bandwagon - but it's beside the point. These commodities are in demand today and will grow almost regardless.
Anyway, this looks solid to me and I added £23k worth just after the opening bell. I'd have added more if not for this being a weak day on the markets generally.
Excellent update and a good set of results for JT , having masterminded the transition from thermal coal to "future" commodities.
Hope we can add a lump of copper to the portfolio in the future since there could be a massive shortage in a few years time due to the EV ramp up.
The key for the short to medium term now is how much more kestrel mining is on Anglo royalty land.