Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
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Arden have released a replacement research note. They retain their 280p target price and 19.3p EPS forecast this year - a P/E of just 7.1 - here's their summary:
Https://research.arden-partners.com/portal/portal.html
"Buy
Target Price: 280p
Trading Statement – Improvement and Opportunity
Continuing improvement –
Anexo has released a pre-close statement ahead of final 2021 results on 11 May 2022. With current trading in line with management’s expectations, recovery in Bond Turner and industry dislocation playing to Anexo’s strategy and capabilities, we believe the group has re-entered a strong growth trajectory which will deliver excellent shareholder returns over time. Reiterate buy.
Increasing focus on quality in credit hire – the successful launch of the MCE referral contract in November 2021 provides Anexo with the scope to be more targeted in the cases it takes on, driving more efficient use of capital and higher margins and should enable quicker recycling of funding through the business. In our view, the market has yet to fully understand the positive impact of this on Anexo.
Legal processing accelerating – The re-opening of the court system supports accelerating cash collections at Bond Turner for reinvestment in credit hire and housing disrepair. Cash collections have been rising and reflect the substantial capability Anexo has built in its legal settlement capacity. In Housing Disrepair, growth remains strong and will further benefit from marketing through 2022.
Further growth funding secured – Anexo has secured further debt funding for growth, which combined with more efficient capital use and faster cash collections, provides excellent headroom for the Group to continue to expand across its various business lines. The MCE contract provides validation of the Group’s strategy and market position and gives visibility of a referral stream to provide lenders comfort over the growth potential in the business and demonstrates the demand from lenders to put capital to work in Anexo’s business.
Investment thesis and valuation - We have argued for over a year that Anexo was in prime position to take significant share in credit hire and become an integral part of the insurance claims processing industry. With strong momentum across all businesses, we swee further share gains and likely upward pressure to our 2022 forecasts. At only 7.1x 2022E P/E on our forecasts, the shares are excellent value in our view considering the market position of the Group. Buy."
Arden reiterate today their Buy and 280p target price.
Progressive Equity Research have issued an update note this morning.
They forecast 19.2p EPS this year, so almost exactly the same as Finncap, for a P/E of only 7.1.
In summary:
"Confident trading update and increased debt facilities
Following a strong January trading update and forecast upgrades, Anexo has issued a confident trading statement ahead of its 2021 full-year results announcement on 11 May."
Very happy with today's year end trading statement, with trading nicely in line with previously upgraded expectations.
Which means historic 16.8p EPS (up from 11.4p EPS in 2020).
For the current year, Arden forecast 19.3p EPS, so ANX are now on a P/E of just 7.1.
Importantly, cash collections and settlements have improved - and new increased loan facilities and litigation funding has been obtained, showing management's ambition and the confidence of the banks in ANX.
All divisions are trading well and have good growth potential, as outlined above.
Plus there's the kicker of the large VW case settlement receipt coming into view hopefully this year.
All looking good imho:
Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/anexo-ANX/share-news/Anexo-Group-PLC-Pre-Close-Trading-Statement/87777377
I've been a bit behind the curve here, and only just had the realisation that ANX's McAms subsidiary covers not just motorcycles for leisure, couriers etc, but also food delivery bikes (Yamaha 125s for example) and scooters.
No wonder this division has been growing so fast given the rise of Deliveroo, Uber Eats, Just Eat etc. Particularly as most of these drivers are such a menace zipping in and out oand between cars and must have loads of accidents.
I may have to rethink my price targets upwards :o))
This is from the Shares Magazine event in February 2022:
Https://youtu.be/cd3jr8NhvhE
It's a good watch. Fingers crossed for a VW settlement this summer which would bring in a very material sum indeed.
On top of which ANX could go after all the other motor manufacturers named in the video.
Meanwhile there should be a run-up in the share price prior to the results on 11th May given the "significantly ahead" update on 18th January.
With 19.9p EPS forecast for this year, at 130p ANX are now on a current year P/E of just 6.5. Bonkers imo.
The chart certainly looks set for a bounce from these levels judging by the usual price action.
ANX were recently tipped in the IC as follows FYI:
"Anexo (ANX)
Aim: Share price: 149p
Market value: £174mn
Website: www.anexo-group.com
Liverpool-based Anexo (ANX) is a provider of a complete litigation claims process focused on the recovery of credit hire and repair costs for the impecunious non-fault motorist involved in a road traffic accident. By offering both credit hire and legal services, Anexo has a competitive advantage over pure credit hire companies (who lack the in-house capacity to litigate a customer’s claim), and solicitors (who lack a vehicle fleet to offer to motorists).
The business has recovered strongly after taking a hit in 2020 when normal working practices for lawyers and law courts were impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic, and the spike in home working subdued road usage. Inevitably, this had effect on the ability of Anexo’s staff to agree settlements with counterparties which subdued cash collection rates.
However, the company is now motoring. A pre-close trading update revealed that both divisions are trading well ahead of previous expectations, buoyed by a sustained recovery in Anexo’s core credit hire division (driven by growth in motorcycle courier market and the withdrawal of rivals from the market), and the reopening of courts, which has enabled faster settlement of claims. In fact, analysts at Panmure Gordon pushed through low double-digit EPS upgrades of 16.7p, 19.9p and 20.6p for the 2021 to 2023 financial years.
Furthermore, those earnings upgrades exclude any contribution from Anexo’s investment in a claim on behalf of 15,000 claimants against German carmaker Volkswagen (VW) in relation to the emissions scandal. It could generate £16mn of operating profit for Anexo, and perhaps sooner than many realise. That's because The High Court in London ruled that VW's attempt to strike out the deceit element of the claims against it to be without merit. VW has already agreed a settlement with those affected by its actions in many other jurisdictions. It’s worth pointing out that Anexo is “investigating the pursuit of similar claims against other manufacturers which have potential to be of significant value to claimants and to the company".
Admittedly, Anexo’s share price has only made modest progress since I highlighted the investment potential despite the hefty earnings upgrades. However, on a 2022 forward PE ratio of 7.4 and underpinned by a near 2 per cent dividend yield, the earnings upgrade cycle is being woefully underrated. Buy."
Ken Wotton of Gresham House is very keen on ANX per this interview (50.55 minutes in).
Great to hear his view that the VW case could be settled as soon as early this summer - this would be highly material for ANX:
Https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/q-a-with-ken-wotton-managing-director-at-gresham-house-156eee8/
ANX are presenting on Thursday for free via Shares Mag/AJ Bell:
Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/anexo-ANX/share-news/Anexo-Group-PLC-SHARES-MAGAZINE-AJ-BELL-Investor-E/87217532
Rivaldo, The last bit of the article for Anexo is "I continue to see upside to my 200p fair value target, having included the shares, at 136.9p, in my market beating 2021 Bargain Shares Portfolio." (The rest of the article is about other shares.)
Here's the full tip:
"Questor: Anexo helps drivers involved in accidents so more traffic boosts business, but a low valuation also offers protection
This column continues to cast around for companies that could benefit from an end to lockdowns and restrictions and what just might be a return to a degree of normality – all while seeking some protection from falls should a new variant emerge to confound everyone’s best-laid plans.
Legal services and credit hire for motorists might not seem like an obvious choice but that is one reason why Anexo has the potential to deliver some positive surprises, while its undemanding valuation offers some protection.
First researched some 16 months ago, Anexo helps drivers who are involved in car accidents that were not their fault by handling legal claims and replacement vehicles, which are charged to the at-fault drivers’ insurers.
Business levels dipped in 2020 as lockdowns meant there were fewer drivers on the road, fewer accidents and thus less need for the company’s assistance. But a trading update last week said revenues were better than expected and profits would come in “materially higher” than analysts’ forecasts for 2021.
Moreover, the three positive trends that are driving that improvement should continue in 2022. The number of cars back on the road should continue to recover this year and that is likely to mean more claims from fault-free drivers.
Meanwhile a surge in second-hand car prices means claim values are rising and a gradual reopening of the courts is allowing more cases to be heard and settled. Improved case resolution should in turn help cash flow, which has been crimped by higher trade receivables (hence the weak cash conversion).
December’s announcement of a new service for people who live in substandard housing adds another string to Anexo’s bow, while the firm continues to represent some 15,000 claims from Volkswagen drivers in a class action suit over the “dieselgate” emissions scandal. A verdict in favour of the claimants would further boost Anexo’s earnings, although analysts are sensibly not including this in their forecasts.
Even without any success in the VW case, Anexo’s shares hardly look expensive on less than 10 times earnings for 2021, a multiple that consensus profit forecasts of a one-fifth increase in earnings per share suggest could fall to barely eight in 2022.
Such a tempting price tag may explain why asset manager DBay Advisors, a shareholder with a 29pc stake, tried to buy the whole firm at 150p a share last summer, albeit without success.
DBay’s holding, coupled with the 38pc stake held by three senior executives, may make the shares less liquid than some and the spread between brokers’ buying and selling prices (2pc at the time of writing) could be wider than investors are used to, especially for larger stocks.
However, we already have a double-digit percentage paper gain on Anexo and there could be more to come. Hold."
ANX have also been tipped overnight by Simon Thompson in the IC - though it's another article I can't read!
Here's the opening bit which is free to read:
Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/01/24/bargain-shares-on-the-results-and-m-a-beat/
"Our small-cap stockpicking expert highlights four investment opportunities including two bid targets
January 24, 2022
By Simon Thompson
One of the strongest drivers of share prices is positive earnings momentum.
Liverpool-based Anexo (ANX:146p), a provider of a litigation claims processing focused on the recovery of credit hire and repair costs for impecunious non-fault motorists involved in road traffic accidents, fits the bill. Analysts not only upgraded full-year earnings estimates ahead of the half-year results last September, but a bullish pre-close update has prompted low double-digit earnings per share (EPS) upgrades to 16.7p, 19.9p and 20.6p for the 2021 to 2023 financial years, too.
A sustained recovery in Anexo’s core credit hire division (driven by strong growth in motorcycle courier market and withdrawal of rivals due to Covid), and the reopening of courts (which has enabled faster settlement of claims) means both units are trading well ahead of previous runs rates. The group is also actively engaged with 15,000 claimants who are pursuing claims against German carmaker VW in relation to the emissions scandal. Panmure Gordon estimate these claims could generate £16m of operating profit for Anexo, a sum that’s not embedded in forecasts for the £172m market capitalisation company.
etc"
Looks like a positive review for ANX in today's Questor column in the Telegraph - subscriber-only though so I can't access:
Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/questor-stock-should-prosper-reopening-hold-against-new-variant/
"The Telegraph
Questor: this stock should prosper from reopening...
Questor share tips: Anexo helps drivers involved in accidents so more traffic boosts business, but a low valuation also offers prote....."
https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/stocks-to-follow-on-vox-markets-21-12-21-5a3485d/
Anexo covered by Paul Hill and Justin Thingamebob
They don't mention Anexo's new foray into addressing substandard housing - but otherwise a reasonable write up. Anexo is growth at a reasonable price plus potential for a 20%-50% special dividend potential for the VW award (using the comparative settlements in other countries as a guide). The fact that Courts are reopened and catching up on cases, and the fact that some of the competition have left the market over the past 2 years are 2 strong tailwinds for Anexo, which they don't touch on either.
Here's a link - should be free to read:
hTTps://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/discover-the-cheap-aim-stocks-offering-sustainable-growth
The new issue of Shares Magazine today features three AIM stocks " which we think the market is undervaluing given their growth potential". The first to be mentioned is ANX....
Progressive have also nicely raised their forecasts. They now see historic 16.7p EPS and 19.2p EPS this year - almost the same as Arden's.
They conclude:
Https://www.progressive-research.com/research/strong-trading-update-for-2021/
"Forecast revisions. 2021: Our revenue forecast is increased by 6% to £109.8m (from £103.7m) reflecting higher average vehicles on the road. Combined with lower VW Emissions case costs than originally forecast, we now forecast reported profit before tax of £23.8m, some 23% above our previous forecast of £19.3m. 2022: A higher average vehicle count, combined with an uplift in performance for Bond Turner and a strong start from the Housing Disrepair Team, underpins an 11% revenue forecast increase to £125.9m (from £113.9m) and a 29% uplift in reported profit
before tax to £27.5m (from £21.4m)."
Arden have today heavily increased their forecasts, by 13% and 17% for last year and this year respectively.
They now see a historic 16.8p EPS, and 19.3p EPS this year - a P/E of just 7.3 (with 2.3p and 2.6p dividends on top).
They retain their Buy and 280p price target.
Bet you there's a ST update later today. It's felt obvious to me that this one would re-rate given the traffic levels, increasing numbers of motorcycle deliveries and more recently the state of some rented housing. The fact that the shares barely responded when VW's counter claim was thrown out "without merit". Cenkos don't say how much of that 280p rerating includes their assessment of the Dieselgate pay out (should ANX win of course). It's looking increasingly likely. The UK would be unusual to not award when other common law countries (like Canada) have found VW liable. The other question is how generous will the award be as there's wide disparity from Country to Country. Anyway lots of reasons to be positive about being invested here.
He didn't have a scooby, Scooby :)
The phrase I love to hear...."profit before tax will be significantly ahead of market expectations" :o))
All sorts of goodies in today's news which will continue to benefit ANX going forward, including:
- record numbers of vehicles on the road
- strong growth in the motorcycle courier market
- reduction in competition
- implementation of the Civil Liability Act
There should be a good run-up to the results from here - will the 280p broker price target be increased even further?
Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/anexo-ANX/share-news/Anexo-Group-PLC-FY-2021-Trading-Update/87033425
Up another 4% already, and moving up almost every day now - nice start to the week.
Moving up again - hopefully about to break upwards.