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Not sure what explains this - probably more decent data out of China. Anyway, good to see after recent drop on quarterly output figures - the latter probably overdone as full year production and cost expectations were said to be unchanged).
Positive Points: For the year to date, copper production was 538,300 tonnes, a 4.4% increase versus the same period in 2012. Forecast group production for 2013 remains unchanged at 700,000 tonnes of copper, 280,000 ounces of gold and 8,000 tonnes of molybdenum. Previous accompanying management outlook comments noted that "we remain focused on cost control, advancing our current projects and maintaining a strong balance sheet while being alert to opportunities that may arise." In terms of group growth opportunities, management previously highlighted that "in the longer-term, there are several very large scale growth opportunities, including potential for stand-alone plants at the Esperanza Sur and Encuentro sulphides deposits, and major expansion of Los Pelambres." Antofagasta is one of the most important conglomerates in Chile with equity participation in Antofagasta Minerals, the railroad from Antofagasta to Bolivia, and other investments worldwide. At its half year results, group net cash rose by 12.5% to $1.5 billion. The dividend payment per share was increased by 4.7%.
Negative Points: Copper production for the third quarter declined by 3.4%, primarily due to lower grades across its operations. Group gold production declined by 11.7%. At the half year results, group revenue declined by 12.1% to $2.77 billion, whist adjusted earnings (EBITDA) declined by 31.2% to $1.27 billion. Half year results saw group costs increasing by 9.3% compared to the previous half year period as higher energy costs at its Los Pelambres operations impacted. The copper price remains something of a barometer for the health of the global economy. Accompanying management outlook comments previously noted that "With new copper supply coming online during the remainder of this year and demand growth largely dependent on the economies of China and the United States, the pricing environment for copper is expected to remain challenging." The group has high exposure to the copper price. Over 80% of total group revenue during the 2012 financial year came from copper. Other miners such as BHP Billiton enjoy greater commodity diversification. Chile lies along a major earthquake fault line. The company is exposed to declining grades, water availability, labour instability and cost inflation.
While management noted that "the group remains on-track to achieve production and net cash costs for the full year 2013", copper production for the period declined by 3.4%, primarily due to lower grades across its operations. For the year to date, copper production was 538,300 tonnes, a 4.4% increase versus the same period in 2012, primarily reflecting the improved operational performance at its Esperanza operation. Group gold production declined by 11.7% to 67,700 ounces in the quarter
You can NOT stategize in microseconds unless you are an atomic electron!
Good morning to you in sunny Bali! - I can summarize what is happening quite succinctly: we are hostage to rampant speculators and almost total computer trading (ETFs gambling with other peoples' money, as usual). Who cares if a lemon like Summers is or is not a candidate for the FED? The balance sheet of that organization is so huge that the real boss is the balance sheet, not the dummy seated in the top chair. And yet futures are soaring! It is this kind of crass market making that makes me a long term shorter, because we are playing against incurable addicts and their moves can only lead to one thing - another crash. I don't see any good coming from a scenario where the real economy (which ultimately must underpin everything) and the inflated fakery of stock markets and casino markets diverge to such an extent that the tension must snap. This is why ultimately if China, Russia and the other economics don't get a move on introducing a currency that underpins the real economy, than in a few years I fear the worse. And to be quite candid with you, I see no asset class that is a refuge, not even gold. - Lastly, I once remarked several years ago that the economy was like a man who suffered a heart attack, and two weeks later he decides to enter the marathon. This is what stock markets are doing, it seems to me. Am I being pessimistic and blinkered? My mind will not set aside reason to gamble against a machine investing with other peoples' money and pushing through fake trades (and withdrawing them a micro-second later). You can stategize in microseconds unless you are an atomic electron! Anything inflated spells danger somewhere along the line. And the 'developed' economies are nowhere near their pre-crisis potential. No one is in control. We are an airplane flying on auto-pilot.
Good morning. I know some guys that become totally infatuated with some of these Thai girls, but their bottom line is always money. You don't just marry the girl, you marry their whole family, and you end up supporting them! I am not that foolish. London property is doing rather well (I am based in central London) so sitting very pretty here. I have learned the art of patience, but I do miss the sunsets. I will make a move overseas to a got country, but when I go to Asia I will stick with hotels and rentals. (Unless, of course, you known any good Indonesian women who are a marriage prospect!) - As for Anto, don't worry about your lower entry price. It will return, and you can thank the speculators for that!
Many thanks for your reply. It is appreciated when posters expand and clarify their reasoning, and their investing methodologies. For my part I think I should add some clarification. Firstly, the tow variables in my model are globalization and financialization. The most resilient bridge between these two pillars (and the most volatile) is hot money flows. These are purely opportunistic in motivation and rational economic models do not append to them in any meaningful way. Moreover, these flows are gigantic and disruptive. Getting a handle on this is what I am analyzing (patiently) and until I get that right, I will be cautious with respect to the markets. I am including here a link that gives a rather neat account of these not money flows http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-2386838/Hot-money-How-investors-avoid-getting-fingers-burnt.html - I hope this clarifies my earlier rather more abrupt reply to your post, and that you not interpret this as aggressive counter play, but a (rather too blunt) statement of my investment paradigms (sorry to use that word, but it is really most appropriate here). Good trading.
Thank you for your feedback, but I will stick with my assertion that value is only short term ( in financial markets). I see no prospect of 'markets' ever returning to the kind of trend (perhaps behaviour is a better word) that existed prior to the crash. This event exposed cracks in the system. When you have far more money, real and invented, than tangible assets value is a diminishing commodity (in financial markets). So as an example allow me to ask, and propose, what value you place on Centamin? I will give you my target price - 1 penny. This is the archetypical valueless company. It will never pay a dividend, long or short term. It exists and trades on speculation that someone out there will 'make a bid' for this company's assets. Hold it for as long as you like, the only way you will make money is to buy it low, and sell it high (at the right time, of course). Yes, this is very cynical. But until proper capitalism reasserts itself and dispatches financialization to history, my contention is a sound one. All the best.
Good morning. Thanks for the info This reminds me very much of Thailand where they have a strategy to 'stitch' foreigners up. Marrying a local leaves you in their hands. Paradise or not, this is a turn off for me. Presently, what I do is rent a place for a couple of months and it seems I will stick with that strategy rather than buying outright in Asia. Parts of Europe can be a pain too, but at least I am able to manage this crowd. You have no chance at all over in Thailand and Indonesia etc!!!!! - ANTO is pushing up again. Speculators are back in full following the copper price. I have to confess business news is so replete with contrasting (contradictory) information that I am turned off even bothering to read it. I see it as lies and deception. I am working on a general 'shorting' strategy because no one trades on value any more. It's total speculation.
Incidentally, if I wanted to buy a one bedroom apartment in Bali, what would I be looking to spend? I would also be interest in a flat that needed renovation because i enjoy DIY. - Seifert.
Good morning. I hope you had beautiful sunsets over the weekend! - I share your frustration with these 'temperamental' markets. It would see that volatility, at what ever level, is now become a factor in the markets if for no other reasons than so many computer algorithms are set up to trade in that way, so it has become somewhat of a vicious circle! This applies mostly to the 'big' stocks such as those in the FTSE 100 and to a significant extent probably the FTSE 350 also. On this basis, I look for stocks that pay out a dividend because should i get caught the wrong way, at least I am collecting something until the stock returns to the buy-in price. For my money, CEY is never going to pay a dividend. This is for speculation only. Those who bought in at 100 p were waiting for 120p. Those who bought at 80p were expecting 100p. Those who took the 'no-brainer!' plunge at 60 p were convinced it would reach 80p in no time And so on... There are all caught out, and stuck with no dividend. Now, there is certainly a way to trade that stock, but this must involve a measure of luck, surely?! I did short it from around 80p and closed at 47p, since there have stayed away. If the share price were to drop to a penny I am in. Otherwise, gold is stuck between a rock and a hard place, and Egypt is a risky bet at the best of times. - I am looking to take a stake in CLLN. It goes ex-div on 3rd September. And, if the price would drop into the 270s, I will buy. If not, I will probably not, since after the ex-dividend date there appears to be a tendency for the stock to slide much further than the value of the dividend. I only look at a few stocks now, as I am getting on with other things in the 'real economy'. Speak to you soon.
Good morning. Thanks for the info on your profile, and your renting of properties in Jakarta. As you are based in that country, you don't suffer any currency risk (I am assuming your tenants settle accounts in local currency?) You have a good set of tenants, and clearly wise to hang on to them. Europe, as you know, went on a property building binge, especially Spain, Ireland, and to a lesser extend Portugal. drove through Spain and it is quite incredible that you see properties under construction in the middle of nowhere (construction of course suspended, only the skeletal superstructure remains). Who on earth was going to move/live there? Many of these assets have to be completely written off, thus hitting the banks. The whole affair was a gaint swindle. The case of Ireland is even more dire, and in Dubai there are complete (poorly) finished tower blocks outside the city that the government decided will have to be demolished because they are worth zero.The lesson here is invest in what you know!!! - VED is something I am watching but not itching to jump into. It would only be a day, very short term trade at most. As for BVC, after selling my LLoyds shares I am out of banks completely. I feel I want to limit my exposure to shares in general to only, say, 20% of my assets, and the remainder to do something 'real'. The difference between you and I and so called 'financial professional' is that we risk our own money, while they put other's money at risk. This is the flaw in financial markets. Too many short term temptations. Too much greed. One is dealing with psychopaths. - Rio is beginning to look both range-bound to be on the one hand, and increasingly hostage to speculators (like Goldman Sachs) who play with commodities futures and derivatives. - Have a good weekend.
Good morning (London time!) I think you were right to cash in ANTO for a small profit. This stock is hostage to the copper price, and there are speculators out there who what to spin that commodity, and ditto Antofagasta's share price. (that' my opinion only, of course). As for VED, well, yes, I did some research on it and know that it can be volatile to trade. So I am only looking for the extreme swings before going long, or short, on that one. India is presently problematic. I am 90% cash at the present time, not a very good idea I know with Carney's commitment to keep interest rates anchored at near zero for several more years yet!. On that basis, I will have to do something with the cash, because inflation degrades it, and idling away just misses any potential opportunities. I will be fully risk on, but not yet. - Do you have any general misgivings on RIO, by the way?
Good morning. - Yes, this is a quiet board, and your predictions on the price moves to 864 ish proved right, as no doubt you are a technical trader. We all use one model or another, and stick with what works (has worked) for you. - I am not trading Rio and got out of GLEN with a small profit. What are your thoughts on VED?
Hi there! I have never personally bought this stock, but I have spread traded it occasionally. At the moment, I am sitting on the fence. There are as many variables as constraints with this stock. It's a well managed and operated company. However, many of the aforesaid constraints and variables lie outside its control. In many ways it's a sage stock, but also a day-traders' one. Good luck with the interim results out tomorrow. - Seifert.
Good news regarding hydro power plant acquisition. Shame the initial price surge didn't last out the day!
miners down across the board since january, on global growth fears it seems, despite the ftse rally. I think this will pick up in anticipation of growth returning, but could be a few months yet (although who knows in this bizarre market)
The decline was due to special divi being made yesterday, i think pays on the 22nd May. Good time to buy in in my opinion. Moving back up slowly today.
copper up last three days 2.5% again today yet pure copper play Anto down nearly 6% Gone are the days when the markets correlated. All thanks to derivatives ETF's and CFD's eh
Gain I believe!
I cant see it getting back up to HSBC's target of 1160p. I was in at 1168p ........... so can only hope!
Antofagasta: HSBC reduces target price from 1200p to 1160p, while upgrading to neutral.
Antofagasta: Nomura lowers target price from 1400p to 1250p and keeps a neutral rating.
Antofagasta: Exane BNP reduces target price from 1500p to 1350p maintaining an outperform rating.