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Carpy, I in no way intended to demean you and I don't think that is C26's game either. I think you understand that customer deposits are NOT sales and while they do contribute to positive cash flow it is a slippery slope if an organization uses those deposits to fund operations (which AML clearly is not doing). Using those deposits results in situations like DeLorean where it all blows up in a puff if coke.
https://carbuzz.com/news/new-aston-martin-boss-kills-the-manual-transmission
Thanks Peter. So what C26 is saying is correct. As I said, I'm not an accountant but I do like to try and understand the figures. I've also noticed that I said the debt was "245m not 260"...I obviously meant to say it is "145m and not 160". Hopefully people understood what I was getting at if they've read the results.
Carpy, deposits on vehicles that will be delivered in the future are not part of working capital . If I receive 100 thousand pounds deposit it goes into cash thus increasing working capital, however it also increases short term debt because I owe that customer either a vehicle or a refund so that reduces working capital and the net effect is nil.
C26. I know I'm splitting hairs but at the FY results, CAPEX was cut to between £250 and 275m so call it £262.5m. Also the interest is £245m not 260. So the annual outgoings are £27.5m less than you have shown.
Also there will be 175 valkyrie of which 150 are road cars and 25 are track only.
So there's approx another £19m profit (25 x 2.5 x 30%)
So in total that's £46.5m more profit than you showed in your calculations.
I did have it in my head that the price for valkyrie was £3.4m but it looks like I was wrong on that one because others seem to agree at 2.5.
I also thought that deposits were kept separate to working capital and therefore shouldn't be deducted from the profit the cars make, but I'm not an accountant so maybe I'm wròng.
A point I would like to make which I and others have made before, is that the revenue from these mid-range cars added to that from DBX and sports cars, showing profit over a number of consecutive quarters, will enable us to renegotiate the debt to a much better interest rate.
https://www.pistonheads.com/news/ph-britishcars/electric-vantage-neednt-mean-the-demise-of-v8/44159
@Richard:
I think the unit price on Valkyrie is £2.5 million and £750,000 for the Speedster. So that's £500 million before Q division get involved. Herr Moers talked about an open top Valkyrie, but read into that that the numbers would be on top of existing orders. Valhallah was positioned at £1 million with a run of 500 units.
88 speedsters x 750k = £66million
150 Valkyrie x £2.5m = £375 million
Valhalla (2024 at earliest, Herr Moers words) 500 x £1m = £500 million
Total £941m.
Profit margin of say 30% £282m.
Subtract deposits taken, and it only just covers one year’s bond interest.
@Ishi : your quote.
"The profit from each Valkyrie this year will be the money used to fund the bonds interest and CAPEX."
I cannot work out if you're short and coming out with nonsense so others do your deramping for you, or you're just a heady mixture of intellectual flatulence and morally vacuous..
What did I claim as ridiculously untrue?
I never said the Valkyrie will pay off all of the debt neither capex.
I said the capex for the car has been accounted for in the past.
You did miss a crucial fact. They are not making 150 total cars but another 25 track variant (more expensive) and also probably a drop top.
And of course I don’t expect it to fund everything. The normal portfolio will do the rest.
Your comparing a single special limited production car with the Capex of the entire portfolio and all of the debt interest. What is the point of that?
Ridiculous.
The mere fact that you don’t answer any questions as to why you are here is a big “?”. As I have mentioned before. Do you have a short position?
I won’t sell my stake just because you think it’s a bad investment. And you won’t stop talking nonsense. So it seems we are at an impasse and I really can’t spend more time responding to your non added value comments.
I think the unit price on Valkyrie is £2.5 million and £750,000 for the Speedster. So that's £500 million before Q division get involved. Herr Moers talked about an open top Valkyrie, but read into that that the numbers would be on top of existing orders. Valhallah was positioned at £1 million with a run of 500 units.
Even with a ridiculous profit margin of 40%, turnover of £315 equates to £126m profit, and you can subtract all customers' deposits from that figure too.
So please let us all know how circa £100m in profit from the valkyrie is going to pay off £435m every year?
Thank you kindly.
You have to show your maths because you claimed something ridiculously untrue which amounts to barefaced lies just to ramp a share price up.
You got called on it, and you're spitting your dummy out the pram.
Don't have a go at me because you not making enough money on the market, have a look in the mirror for that.
That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence
Valkyrie : 150 made at £2.1 million sale price = £315m TURNOVER.
Bond interest for 1 year is £160m + capex of £275million. = £435million.
Just wondering where you studied maths?
Why do “I need to show my maths?”
I am getting a little bored of “show your math”.
If you want to do some maths go and do some. Not in the mood to go and find figures from past balance sheets and then add/subtract some numbers, in order to entertain you.
But just from memory.
CAPEX will be spread over year. It was 46ml for q1 x4 for the year. Thats a close approximation.
As for the Valkyrie. The development costs are done and closed. It’s a finished car with final small testing going on. So all that has been accounted for in the past in CAPEX.
Customers put what £500-600000 on reservation from a car that costs what was it £2 mil?
So c264 why don’t you show me your future sales forecast and expected figures?
Go put a short position on the share price using what ever financial company you want just be prepared to pay a lot on interest payments to keep it going when the share price rises LOL.
Economically should read 'ecologically'
Agreed Richard. Every time a new version of the DBX is unveiled it will guarantee more sales, but can you imagine the excitement that would be generated if Top Gear put the high performance DBX head to head against the Urus and it beat it!! It would be euphoric, not to mention the media attention...I think we'd definitely get the biggest lift from that version!! The hybrid will of course bring in extra orders too, from people who are economically aware. Also, a 7 seater was mentioned soon after the DBX was launched, so I'm sure this is still on the burner and will again bring in orders from larger families. So within a couple of years there will be lots of choice to suit people's needs and desires. By then our DBX sales will have increased significantly!
@Ishi, please show your maths for Valkyrie funding bond interest and capex.
It's difficult to judge Q2, but it's probably the last quarter that won't benefit from Valkyrie and Speedster deliveries. Thereafter, the figures should get a bounce from these high premium cars, plus the profits built therein.
The promised announcements for Q2 and beyond are exciting - I think we maybe underestimate the impact of a high performance DBX as clients in some markets certainly prioritise performance. It would be fascinating to see a DBX outperform the Urus. The fact that AML will have at least 3 versions will only be good for figures.
Everything coming out seems to suggest that Sports/GT figures are above expectation, so forthcoming facelifts and improved interiors will only add to the momentum. I believe back in March Herr Moers said there would be a reveal of the redesigned Valhallah around July, so perhaps Pebble Beach may be the ideal time considering the potential size of the market plus the release of the second DBX model.
Q2 sales will be very good for uk market IMO. Germany april new Aston Registrations came in over my own expectations.
Furthermore, There were 2 new dbx’s on autotrader.co.uk put up over the last 2 weeks.
They have both now been cleared. That was in 2 weeks!
I think they are testing UK market to see if they could sell even more units by diverting sales from other international regions.
Tobias Moers is not a talker, he is an pusher. Once the new product range is updated in late 22’ or early 23’ , And better interiors are added, sales will soar.
The profit from each Valkyrie this year will be the money used to fund the bonds interest and CAPEX.
Personally I don’t care if AML is not profitable this year or next year. I want to see strategy, execution, and hopefully a maintained sales momentum from this older model range.