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@LondonWatcher – We had this debate earlier this year, so read my last post in this thread.
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=AML&share=Aston-Martin-Lagonda&thread=4476057D-192A-4CCF-8A2D-37EC7BE0F76D
In short, those ‘big players’ you listed all took part in the 1st Aug.23 cash raise.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AML/proposed-share-placing-5fym4jm3s3fuyuk.html
Therefore, they couldn’t launch a bid at these low prices, even if they wanted to.
Note – I am not ‘desperately’ suggesting that a takeover is coming, just pointing out the rules.
Hope that helps, cheers, Paul. :)
@tinypie2 – you posted this link a while back, which covers the back end loading & capacity to do it.
obviously, we will have a better idea if the plan is working as the year progresses.
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/earnings-call-aston-martin-on-track-with-new-launches-eyes-growth-93ch-3413230
douglas lafferty – quote – “…those ramp-up plans are in line with our expectations currently and take us ramping up through the second quarter of this year and then into full rate in the second half of last year. and then similarly i sort of outlined in my opening, as i said, we've been preparing for this, expecting for this, recruiting for this and we're making very good progress in terms of being ready for what we know is going to be a big second half. and then with regards to our precedent of delivery, i think you just need to look at the last couple of years in terms of q4, we've needed to deliver and we have the execution capability to do that and we've demonstrated that across both plants with st athan being very, very busy in q4 2022 and ***don being very busy in q4 2023. so we have the execution capability; it's been the plan, continues to be the plan and we're confident in delivering on it.”
@c2645sg – Are you really using SSO/Karenable pro-ratings to predict AML’s 2024 annual sales?
Have you learned nothing from all the times you pro-rated & got it wrong every time? < Roll Eyes >
- - - - - - - - - -
2021 Predictions:
c2645sg – 23/11/21 – Quote: “No, we are NOT on target to hit 6000 this year. Projection this year of 5666 cars sold (based on 9 months figure of 4250).”
2021 Actual = 6,178.
- - - - - - - - - -
2022 Predictions:
c2645sg - 06/10/22 – Quote: “H1 was 2675 sales, and that run rates looks similar in H2 so far. So roughly selling 5300 ish”
c2645sg - 07/10/22 - Quote: “H1 sales were c.2500, therefore full year is 5000”
c2645sg – 03/11/22 – Quote: “AML's run rate of sales at this rate is 5500 per year”
2022 Actual = 6,412.
- - - - - - - - - -
2023 Predictions:
c2645sg – 16/05/23 - Quote: “Q1 numbers were 1,269, so multiplied by 4 for full year is only 5076, and the target is 7000”
c2645sg – 27/06/23 - Quote: “Sales in Q1 were 1200 x 4 = 5000 per year, way short of 7000.”
c2645sg - 20/01/24 – “UK sales down over 12% in 2023 compared to 2022… 7000-12% = 6160 sales.”
2023 Actual = 6,620
Which was not materially different to 6,700 market guidance, so no 2023 profit warning required.
AML reported 154 sales for the UK in Q1.
Now this website is claiming 462, a MONTH later.
Something is not right here.
Thanks Richard. Numbers are looking good!!
https://www.am-online.com/data/manufacturer-insight
..........................April 24................April 23...............YTD 24..................YTD 23.................% change
Aston.....................77.........................55......................462.......................361......................+ 28%
Bentley..................96........................141.....................341.......................554......................- 38%
Ferrari....................92..........................79.....................360.......................337......................+ 7%
Lamborghini..........81.........................51......................333.......................215......................+ 55%
Maserati.................43..........................67.....................199.......................384......................- 48%
McLaren.................18..........................19......................59........................107.....................- 45%
Rolls.......................43..........................41.....................178.......................195.....................- 9%
Karenable.
WTF are you on about??? Q1 2024 only 300 down on Q1 2023 I would say is quite remarkable given 3 of the 4 main models are runouts and weren’t even in production. Ditto for Q2.
How about you save your poor little finger tips and STF up until full year figures are posted for 2024.
How about if you’re right and they’ve only sold 4000 cars then I’ll take you out for a slap up steak dinner and if you’re wrong you take your phone to deepest darkest Africa and both stay there???
Unlikely in my opinion LondonWatcher and also won’t be in the best interest of shareholders. When everything looked to be going to plan last year, brokers estimates were around £4, if it starts to look like things are back on track it will start moving back up. Any way Geeley are the only ones I think that might try it and they can’t go above 25% until August.
Starting with the first target, in 2023, AML wholesaled 6,620 cars. Conservatively, high single digit would be at least 7% growth or 7,083 cars. Given Q1 actual was 945 cars wholesaled and AML’s is stating that Q2 will be “broadly similar to Q1’24”, AML would need to wholesale 5,193 cars in the 2nd half of 2024 to meet guidance. In 2023, AML wholesaled 3,666 cars in the 2nd half and the same number for 2022 is 3,736. To hit the guidance, AML would need to deliver 2nd half growth of 42% vs. 2nd half 2023. Versus the 1st half of 2024, it would be 175% growth.
https://ssoreport.com/aml-q1-2024-result
Either Q3 or Q4 this year cash flow positive. That's all you need to know. The clock is ticking. Tick tock, tick tock, you'll be gone soon enough.
What's the likelihood of someone taking over a company with more debt/payables than the market cap, who desperately need cash to stay afloat in the next 3 months?
Pretty small I would imagine.
You really are getting desperate now. You know when posters want a takeover that almost all hope is lost.
Any takeover would mean a 10% premium to holders, so no chance of making back all the money you lost.
More chance of all of them taking it private to get away from stockmarket glare, as the numbers are just getting worse.
What's the likelihood that one of the below shareholders of Aston Martin will launch an open offer in coming days / weeks considering weak share price???
Current shareholders / percentage they own:
Lawrence Stroll's Yew Tree Consortium: 26.23 %
Public Investment Fund (Investment Management) 20.50%
Geely 17%
Mercedes 9.7%
Lucid 3.7% (owned by Saudi's)
In total 77% of Aston Martin is own by the above shareholders!!
C2645bj please get in touch with Aston Martin personally as soon as possible. The company and all of its investors need you to guide them with your superior abilities. Please 🙏🏻 save us???
Ps have a lovely weekend. The sun is out and everything looks beautiful so I’m sure you’ll be happier if you can find a dark damp cellar somewhere.
Doesn't matter, prices are too high and resale values are shocking, hence sales are plummeting
Who is going to trade in their old Aston for a new one when they have lost so much?
How many new buyers are going to buy new when they know they will lose so much value on a matter of months?
DBX owners have lost £80k in 18 months, are they now going to pay EVEN more for a face-lifted version DBX? Not many are that stupid.
Stroll is alienating his loyal customer base. the very people who kept this company afloat.
Idiocy. Driven.
Just in case you don’t know, embargo lifts Monday, I would expect it to be at least as positive as DB12 initial drive reviews.
Coltman was brought in by Orion to asset strip BMN.
You have been warned.
GROW now @ £301. Another wrong call by your AI machine.
Need I go on?
wildtiger
Posted in: GROW
Posts: 2,229
Price: 241.50
No Opinion
RE: Bought 2000 in isa10 Apr 2024 00:10
Way too soon to buy, i expect it to go below 200 in the short term
If you actually read my posts you'd know I have been calling AML down since £18.
BMN is finished, the vultures are circling.
AI for choosing stocks, chortle.
PFC is now suspended..... Another great AI choice? More ramping nonsense.
wildtiger
Posted in: PFC
Posts: 2,229
Price: 20.50
No Opinion
Dividend17 Apr 2024 09:18
Analysts are forecasting this will pay a 4-5% dividend next year, can you imagine selling now and then to see it 5x in a year
This reminds of RR when it was at the darkest moments. Good luck to all.
wildtiger
Posted in: PFC
Posts: 2,229
Price: 20.00
No Opinion
RE: Added more17 Apr 2024 08:48
Let me guess you panic sold at 19 this morning. thanks for your shares
C26, you must be one of many that bought my shares above £3 and now just hating anyone who has any positive view on this company.
And if you actually read my post properly you’d have noticed I said “within 12 months”. Stocks like BMN can move 30-50% in either direction in a single day so short term doesnt really matter, but of course your little negative brain wont be able to handle this kind of volatility so its definitely not a stock for you
Halved in value already.
Another ramper.
wildtiger
Posted in: BMN
Posts: 2,227
Price: 1.025
No Opinion
RE: Added more17 Apr 2024 11:39
We use a number of custom built AI tools for stocks and success rate is over 80% so far. Cant really go into the details as we have a few clients paying over 6 figures per year for the infos
wildtiger
Posted in: BMN
Posts: 2,227
Price: 1.025
No Opinion
Added more17 Apr 2024 11:19
Bought another 2m shares since yesterday, thank you sellers!
C2645, we use a number of custom built AI tools to figure out which stocks are undervalued AND have the potential to at least 2x our money in the short term (within a year). So far the success rate is over 80% with the help of our AI tools
Vantage
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UsxyTyfmzm0&ab_channel=PlanetCarNews
DB12 Convertible
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLQOFi4pcOE&ab_channel=Joyride