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Forget all the voting shenanigans, I'm still surprised by the attitude towards the valuation. The idea that the RF was going to let a western company keep hold of this, even prior to the war is fantasy. There was only ever going to be one conclusion a discounted sale. I've said on here many times RY never had any intention of mining, he told us all that at a presentation many years ago.
Given where the reserve is, its only accessible for half the year, along with the road and capex needed. In a normal situation I feel we'd be lucky to get $1-200 Mil with or without the TEO.
The offer of $110 mil was made before the invasion and deemed low but no one else has come forward, so that says it all. Now we're in a war situation with sanctions probably around for years to come. Retaining the original price is pretty good from my point of view.
The bit I don't like is the way the payout is structured but I don't think there is any choice. Given RY's age I would think he would rather have a one off or at least a big chunk up front and then do one into the sunset. He'll be in his late 80's or dead by the time all the money is paid out.
Another thing to take into account, with the current payment schedule (which has clearly been imposed), they have no choice than to buy into another asset. They have to keep AMC trading in order the receive the other instalments.
I've not managed to vote (didn't get organised in time). The only apparent YES voters are CT and the board. So it's either already 'fixed' (large group held in Nominee accounts) and if not or looks like NO will get it.
From a trading point of view, I think YES will be best, there may be a bit of a sell off as those that voted NO capitulate. but I think it will be short lived as new punters see the current SP underwritten. The market likes certainty, which we don't have with the unknown consequences of a NO vote. If no revised offer comes after a NO vote the SP will just slowly decline as more and more capitulate. Then we're open to either an RF grab or a hostile takeover.
As I said before it really is catch 22 but interesting to watch. I've hedged my bet and now along with my free holding my trading pot has an average below the NAV of a YES vote.
AMC has really become a binary bet now - come on RY spin the wheel!
"He'll be in his late 80's or dead by the time all the money is paid out."
He's not the only one which is one of many reasons for voting no. Late 2030's is when the last payment is scheduled and that assumes the buyer will stump up. It's simply a feg awful deal and one which nobody in their right mind, no matter what the current geopolitical environment, can reasonably be expected to vote for.
TDT
Agree but markets like certainty and there is none with a no vote.
This really is a binary BET, Yes will preserver some value, NO will destroy it. And then guess what happens, our man just hoovers up for a fraction of his offer.
A no vote is the only option
VOTE NO ITS AN AWFUL DEAL
RY will will not need to be around for the possibly arriving(or not) stage payments,because he can make sure he is receiving that fat salary for as long as he can
MD
The market might like certainty ….. but it thrives on volatility !!
OTL
Geng,
Disagree with your opinion on this occasion.
etank
"The only apparent YES voters are CT"
I wouldn't believe anything he says!
Roy, desperate for what?
I really have nothing to lose either way!
Just giving my view
Geng - Yes you maybe correct and that's why I sold straight away. There is only one winner and that is the buyer getting AMC at a massive discount. I couldn't see anything knowing the players that would do anything but reduce the sp to effect that. No vote, yes vote just look ate the terms of payment. As TDT says final payment at the end of the 30s.
Good luck.