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Should help here
Yes I agree even with lowest valution this is trading way under cash
When I look at the trades from Friday, I see the effect my purchases had on direction of trade, effectively cancelled out by sells of a similar size straight afterwards, then an additional sell, which prompted the small drop in price. However, after that there is a decent size purchase, followed by two minimal sells. On balance there were, marginally more buys than sells, yet the price stayed down. This does look as though the mms are trying to make it "toxic" so as to encourage further selling. We should see the price start to run up again, even if it is just to close the very large gap between cash and mcap.
There is always the chance of an all share offer for antrim, by a cash hungry company with production assets that have a debt liability they are struggling with. I would only expect to see something like that show up and be accepted if the board are given some "sweetners" such as jobs in the acquirer or options/warrants. There is the chance of antrim buying a bit of production, although not any time soon, I wouldn't have thought. They could RTO someone else. I would expect them to do something at some point this year as more distressed situations will present theirselves, worthy of looking over.
sure.. according to the November corporate update, they state the amounts invoiced to former j/v partners for their portion of abandonment costs have been received. That would be the $4.4mil. They go on to say, in the next paragraph, that unrestricted cash is $9.7m after subtracting trade payables, this to me is the lower figure and when converted to GBP is £6.3m. I am working on a valuation from an unrestricted cash point of view, to get a lower bar. Any other cash they have, appears to be allocated for one reason or another and as this company has no revenue, I consider it effectively spent already. I like to then try and add in a years worth of wages/other costs and see what cash per share I am left with today. This stock trades way below even the most cautious valuation that I can come up with so far.
SEA7, can u explain how you have reached £6.3 m cash in bank. my understanding is they had $10.1mi cash in bank + They collected $4.4mill after reporting period in Nov. so I think AEY has $14.5mill cash in hand.which is £10.16mill.Is nt it correct? if yes then they are trading around 25% of the cash value. Sometime doing nothing and being patience is the way to create wealth and Board is doing the same. For me board looks very clever( I never thought i will say this anyhow :-) ) Compared to last year Jan, now AEY is in very very good position with 100% kosmos(hopefully), no decommission obligation, reduced overhead and no price impact on oil price for near term(2 years) :-). Only threat is we AEY may be prey for cash hungry firms. Any views?
They are supposed to propose a work programme, no later than early april of this year to comply with the licence conditions of FEL 1/13. This is supposed to contain an exploration drill. They may propose a work programme, although I suspect any thoughts of a drill would be at the back end of that four year program. The other assets, fyne and Erne most probably will disappear. This leaves antrim today, as a fairly clean cash shell, trading at way below value. Apart from the results of the atlantic margin licencing rounds, to be announced during the next two months, the Q4 report at the end Feb and the possible work proposal for FEL 1/13, there isn't much else to expect, unless there is a sudden desire by the board to buy some production.
According to the interim financial report for the 3rd quarter 2015 and the corporate update in November 2015... We have £6,305,000 in unrestricted cash. If we assume £700k G+A to end September 2016, which is high for a company with no revenue streams and the bulk of this, I believe is the office leases at £386k for the year of 2016, then we are left with £5,605,000 in cash at end September 2016. This equates to 3.03p per share as at end September 2016. At the current mcap of £2.26m there is very little downside and at the very least a possible rise to 3p just to match the cash balance in nine months time. I bought, yesterday at 1.29p in two tranches, one of 125k shares and the other 50k shares. These are shown as sells. We have a good margin of safety here at these levels and time for the company to do something with the cash balance, other than draw salaries. The Q4 report will be out soon and should show that the position is largely unchanged. There does not seem to be any catalysts on the horizon, other than the fact that it is undervalued on a cash to share price basis, however, we may be surprised one day. I may add on further weakness.
Spot on Sceet and oil price to be $50+ by end of year
All this talk in the news about oil companies going bust inc us yet we have cash in the bank no debt and not much exposure to currant oil prices so surely it's time to sit back watch the chaos then pick thru the bones that are left and bag ourself a bargain later ! A case of last man standing 😄 or am I deluding myself ?
I agree Linton, the current BoD is doing nothing but bleeding this comiany dry. Give CC and co a chance.
Basically nothing positive has happened here in the last year and the cash burn rate is higher than you would want with no activity. With oil prices hitting an 11 year low today will a JV partner be found in time to drill in Irish waters... I can't see it. Dont get me wrong, I hold but I have no faith in the BOD at all despite the current cash position. Don't AEY lose 25% of the license also by a certain deadline - 6 months?? (from memory, with out reading the RNS)
Go bust, you are joking! They hold over $9.5m cash verses the current market cap of £2.7m. From the recent update............ 'The Company, with its current cash resources, and with no debt and no decommissioning obligations, is in a strong financial position. Estimated unrestricted cash on hand, less trade payables is US$9.7 million' What is more is that interest in the recent Irish licensing round was very high so there is a possibility to secure a JV partner, if that happens the shares will sky rocket. Both EOG and AEY are cheap in my view. Many are looking for 4p+ here
Need a farm-in partner or sell out at a decent price here. Lack of activity by the BOD and cash burn could yet see AEY go bust. Hope i'm wrong but odds must be stacked heavily on this happening in this oil price environment.
This could be tomorrow's star play!! Great gains today, more tomorrow?! Undervalued at the moment and BOD could turn it around for the better...
Big Load of sudden buying
$9.7million cash and a £2mil market cap are you kidding me cheap as chips!!!!!!!!!!!!
What do you think about the three amigos recent purchase of 3%? I agree that there is little incentive for the BOD other than to protect their salaries until the last of the cash pile has been drained away. However will Clement Chambers, Christopher Williams and Daniel Levi be able to change the status quo. The other side of the coin is mentioned in TW's bearcast, if CC,CW & DL take control we get kicked off of AIM. I'm not sure how this one will play out, it certainly is not as simple as the NAV
The problem with Antrim is that the insiders don't own Antrim shares. It's only Greer who owns about 3 million shares. Anthony Potter owns ZERO shares. The other directors own less than 100,000 shares. See SEDAR.COM This is the reason why you had better stay far from Antrim. They can burn the cash waiting for an opportunity....but the opportunity will never show up. So they will relax and spend the shareholders money for the next 12 months. Unfortunately, Antrim is heavily owned by retail shareholders and the insiders have ZERO interest to make a good deal and push the pps to 5-6 CAD cents which is equal to its cash value.
Looking better now and completely oversold below cash value
After meeting CC and co last week and seeing their stance on Sefton vindicated by their uncovering of the financial corruption by the last bod. I can see their involvment in AEY as very positive. They are both knowledgeable and ethical. Things will start moving here.
Cheers Crude, who knows whats going to happen here, have a nice Christmas.
As far as I see it, Sefton was on the brink of being liquidated before CC etc came in. CC etc will help turn Antrim round too. This like many other AIM company boards seem to drift along without producing anything positive. At least we will see some movement here if CC gets involved.
Ivor, good luck with whatever happens. Crude