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Evening DH.
Drewky hasn't posted since mid July. Apparently, not only did he lose the plot, he lost his list too.
Shame, as that list deserved a medal of some kind.
Blimey I see people who do seem to truly understand the Aex situation wasting their time on obstinate people who really simply don't know what they don't know!!
Tanzania I've always been taught to respect my elders but good God man you dweaky and uwe simply are too obtuse to appreciate clear facts when presented to you.
Looking forward to hearing dweaky's updates from his supposed hotline to AEX?!
Best of luck all to their respective investments here and as always imho and dyor.
time will tell Crusty one hopes for something before the end of the year hopefully otherwise I will be fearing the worst really but I do expect some sort of indication if not when in 2020 we will get the licence so fingers crossed really, could be a good Xmas runup Nov/Dec !!!
"The truth is the drying up of our revenue from KN1 was a huge blow for us all to the point where I was more than just upset, more like depressed."
"You and me both and you may remember my stating as early as 2017 that the KN1 issues were AEX's "Achilles heel" and needing resolving imminently"
Couldn't have put it better myself agree with both statements unfortunately. I first invested here when we had US oil rigs bringing in a little cash (Approx 5 mill if IIRC).
The loss if KN1 income is beyond frustrating, I am hoping for a good outcome going forward but will not be surprised if the worst case scenarios appear. Hindsight being 2020 would love to go back to the 7p time!!
Thanks for your response
FWIW Mike I do think that the sp decline has been overdone (though predictable) and may even drop further of we have one or more delays to the farm-out extension. And it is NOT beyond the realms of possibility that if the delay goes on for another 6 months or more we could well have run out of money by the time the license extension comes to our rescue and if that happens there is no telling what the sp will be.....? The MC will be so low that raising capital will be extremely problematical. Which just goes to show how shortsighted it was of our BoD NOT to remediate KN1 whilst we still had the money to do so...
That said if we can avoid that scenario, with an extension and a successful C1 drill we could see a good rise from current levels. But, and I stress only in my view, not back to the 7.5p levels we managed after NT2 and when we still owned 75% of Ntorya rather than a soon to be 25%. Well certainly not before the income from Ntorya starts to flow and even then only if it comes in at the top end of suggested estimates. And by that time I will no longer be a shareholder here in the quantities that I currently am.
Pete is there any hope at all to salvage anything here or is 0.7p the best we can hope for?
So NO Tanzania I think it now obvious that I have NOT "and slowly but agonisingly slowly Crusty has come to realise that the BOD were reasonable people caught out by a gas source of revenue failing....."
Failing due to their own incompetence and inability to manage the scenario in the best interests of their shareholders Tanzania - well, all except their majority shareholder....
reproach :0)
"The truth is the drying up of our revenue from KN1 was a huge blow for us all to the point where I was more than just upset, more like depressed."
You and me both and you may remember my stating as early as 2017 that the KN1 issues were AEX's "Achilles heel" and needing resolving imminently
But Tanzania do you not believe that the BoD are in the slightest bit responsible for the total failure to resolve and remediate the abject failure that is Kiliwani ? I was at the AGM in Dublin (as several others were by the way) in May 2017 when we were told that a) they had been aware of the problem for over 4 months b) the problem had been identified and a solution determined c) the position was resolvable without much problem and in short order d) at minimal cost e) was their "biggest priority" f) was principally the reason for Aaron Le Blanc being brought on board (along with the NT3 drill !!)
So Tanzania what happened? Were we being fed a bunch of lies? Were they incompetent and did not know what they were talking about? Did they determine that NT3 was "more important? Did they not realise that NT3 (C1 as it became) was going to require future funding or an operational partner? Or did they decide that they would wait to raise funds until we had no income from KN1, no reserves of cash, a totally unjustifiable increase the salary budget (over 100%) at a time when the income was drying up and at a time when the Tanzanian Govt was about to cause the industry to down tools.... Oh and when were they going to explain to their shareholders what the hell was going on?
But you believe that the BOD are not at all responsible for any of this, no? That they could not see this coming? They could not see the sense in raising the capital when it was easily available and securing our only regular income stream from Kiliwani - when many on this BB could see it a a mile off.... oh, by the way Tanzania actually said so to the BoD at the Dublin AGM in May 2017.
Moreover whilst this was happening Tanzania we were delivered RNS after RNS of propaganda, obfuscation and disinformation - akin to that ridiculous FAQ that was so conclusively proven to be a total sham.
But if you cannot see this then there is little point continuing the conversation. We will simply have to differ BUT please do not drone on and on about you were right and I was wrong in not immediately seeing the "obvious" benefits or need of a Farm Out when it was first announced in 2018.... There would have been no obvious need for it if the BoD had not driven us into such an untenable position that we had no "hand to play" by the time we were forced into the hands of our "partners" to get "shafted"...
But you would maintain that this state of affairs in no way the fault of the Directors that we pay to look after our interests Tanzania....?
Good gracious me whatever happened to "accountability"...? I wish you were my employer Tanzania, I could get away with anything without fear of
Do note that amongst all the rhetoric there doesn't seem to be a few simple words on the lines of "we would have done this" and " we would have had a successful fund raise of so and so million" or "we can do better than the Omani's offer of a free carry" No. In the time up to finally approving the 'Transaction' did we have a serious alternative offered ? None that I recall but I stand correction if wrong. The truth is the drying up of our revenue from KN1 was a huge blow for us all to the point where I was more than just upset, more like depressed. It weakened our position and instead of negotiating from of a reasonable position of strength, we were seriously weakened. Unlike Crusty, I don't blame the BOD at all. At that time, I think the 'Transaction' from Zubair was the best available deal in town, and slowly but agonisingly slowly Crusty has come to realise that the BOD were reasonable people caught out by a gas source of revenue failing. I'm hoping the deal will nevertheless be highly successful and prove I was right, keeping faith.
Oh and one more thing Tanzania you argue that no ".....other partner would have the same influence as Zubair backed by the Omani's. "
So where oh where or what has that enormous Omani influence gained us so far eh? NOWHERE and NOTHING is the answer.... because as I have suggested for many many months the events that have plagued Aminex for over two years are not peculiar to them alone and are far larger than the Omanis are able to influence. And once these are complete and out of the way the hurdles will disappear and the influence of the Omanis will not matter one jot.
Dear oh dear Tanzania, you keep flogging the same old dead horse... so let me ask you a question. Why oh why did the BoD wait until we were up **** creek without a paddle before deciding to run to the Omani's for money? Why did they not so so after NT2 drill with a Market Cap of £250 million when it would have been easy to raise money? They would have received shareholder backing for a 20% dilution and raised £50 million - considerably more than they are raising from selling off 66% of the largest, most valuable and lucrative revenue earner that we own.
And yes Tanzania we were always going to have to get a partner (operational or financial) to assist with the Full Field Development of Ntorya BUT had the BoD had any foresight or imagination we would have had MORE than enough money to get through to C1 drill and with plenty in reserve. Had we completed the KN1 remediation whilst we still had plenty of money we would not now have to have put everything on hold whilst awaiting further cash flow.....
So yes Jodo you and I am on a very similar wavelength and so too CP. I have long argued that despite the lip service that the BoD played with the FAQ's (which proved to be total misinformation by the way) was nonsense and that whilst they may have argued that they had sufficient to complete KN1 remediation they in fact could never afford to spend it! Not until we had a license extension and the farm-out because had they done so they would now have NO MONEY and no guarantee of getting paid all the time the TPDC are refusing to honour payments.
______________
Have you noticed Tanzania that the only one of the BoD members that got us into this position are still taking a wage from the AEX coffers and he happens to be the Finance Director.
But hey Tanzania you keep up your unerringly apologetic stance for the actions (or inactions) of our erstwhile BoD members but I am afraid to say that you haven't fooled anyone.
It is Bucks and I agree 100% , the historical lack of transparency regardless of the political situation is pathetic and the real story behind AEX has always been found in RNS's from other companies in Tanzania, finally they haves fest up it seems.
Tanzania
I think you keep asking the wrong question.
From the position we are in, almost any farm out has proved a lifesaver because of the attitude of the government.
However, at the time the tanzanien government behaviour was not an element in the deal and an explanation of why the terms were were so tough.
Moreover, a successful management of aminex would their ground much better and would not have been so vulnerable.
That, I think, is what Crusty argues, and I agree with him. And if it’s not what he argues, i still agree with me;-)
Fair enough, let's consider the alternative at the time of the 'Transaction. We reject the Zubairs offer. I'm Interested to hear how everyone feels our relatively tiny company would have fared ? For my pennyworth, it would have been a disaster. As it is and as I have constantly argued, a smaller slice of the cake not only secured the backing of the hugely influential Omani's but crucially, simply huge, unbelievable forward funding. Maybe those that favoured rejecting the Transaction offer would explain if they would have raised funding with a placing and if so, how much ? So many forget, the Omani's are heavily involved in Tanzania with projects such as the financing of the future Docks development. The Government have every reason to treat them with utmost respect. I'm horrified to think that others think that little old Aminex could go it alone or that another partner would have the same influence as Zubair backed by the Omani's.
Yep, definitely looks like KN1 is at a standstill due to the PSA review process. Just wish the BOD could have been upfront with us from the start..
I did think it interesting that AEX’s last RNS basically called out the Tanz Govt for being slow and the cause of the delays. Maybe to elicit some sort of reaction? I think it’s the first time they have said anything of the sort publicly? All the news headlines surrounding the last RNS focus on delays caused by the Tanz govt. Hopefully they be spurred into action and not want to embarrass themselves further by such slow moving bureaucracy. If they really want to encourage international investment and drive forward their industrialisation, they need to show it.. !
Cperkin, Crusty, hope you’re well. It’s been a long old wait. Let’s hope we can get moving again soon.
Totally agree, ref the farmout and price as said here many times, they sold out a dill too early and at a price too low.
Regardless it is now the only game in town and the only way (pending licence) that it will get into production. Crusty, I believe Killi is suffering from the same contract/PSA review and expect no material progress till the Farmout is completed post licence.
NO Tanzania how many times do I have to tell you the same thing?! It was NOT Drewky nor cp nor anyone else that persuaded me to drop my opposition to the farm-out - they were both (or at least Drewky) telling us all what a fantastic deal it was and that we should be congratulating the management for doing a wonderful job! I have never have been nor ever will be a supporter of that view - indeed I still maintain that we were totally screwed on the price and did not get fair value - however as time has since proven without a farm-out we would now be totally buggered, without a proverbial pot to **** in with no choices of alternative funding nor chances of surviving; that has nothing to do with Drewky or CP simply the awful management (of Kiliwani in particular) and the lack of foresight that drove us to the Omanis with a begging bowl with the consequnetial destruction of shareholder value.......
So please do not keep plugging the ridiculous line that Drewky has persuaded me of anything - he hasn't....... the EGM marked my change of heart, when I recognised that without it and with the continued intransigence of the Tanzanian Govt we would now be totally f**ked
He doesn't have a clue what he's talking, No one is spiked in Aex ( recently
As is IrishMouse.......
Just in case you don't all know, TipTop is strutting his stuff on AAOG.
A persistant internet troll.
Buckler, the only fact you've left out of this very likely scenario and perceptive observation is the fact that every major share price move relating to AEX over the last 2 year has preceded the RNS announcement by 36-48 hours.......
I'd say that only goes further to reinforce your supposition. Make of that what you will.
rofl, ?