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"management estimates suggest a mean risked gas in place ("GIIP") for the Ntorya accumulation of 3,024 Bcf, in multiple lobes to be tested and a mean risked recoverable gas resource of 1,990 Bcf, which will be appraised by the planned seismic and drilling programm"
so once proved up by seismic and CH-1 and put into production and assuming the same GSA terms as WEN, then Aminex could have 1P reserves of 500 Bcf, or 5 x the amount of WEN, (their 2P estimates notwithstanding ) so 5x their NPV10 of $116.6 million ? = ($583) hmm, i would say there is defiantly some upside to Aminex's valuation, compared to the current market cap of £22m : )
Ah yes, just realized Wen reserves estimates are 2P not 1P
"2P reserves are the total of proven and probable reserves. Proved reserves are likely to be recovered, whereas probable reserves are less likely to be recovered than proved reserves. The sum of proved and probable reserves is represented by 2P."
What is the difference between 1P and 2P reserves?
"1P reserves" = proven reserves (both proved developed reserves + proved undeveloped reserves). "
2P reserves" = 1P (proven reserves) + probable reserves, hence "proved AND probable."
Yes indeed Edgar and the figure for contingent reserves will be very different from the estimated recoverable reserves and the value of that, of course, on what we get paid for that gas; which will depend on the terms of the GSA and that, in turn, on who builds and owns the pipeline - amongst other things.
And as the current Wentworth price indicates whatever that value it does not necessarily translate into the market cap.
But hey, whatever the figure it surely will be a lot more than it is now ;-)
It is an obvious point and I probably don't need to say it. But.
Lets say my rounding up and optimism is way out. And Aminex have half of what I think they might have. So 500BCf not 1 TCF.
The valuation based on Wentworth's NPV halves. To 12.5 cents per share.
(Actually I think Aminex will ultimately have much more gas than 1TCF. I think Ruvuma is a world class and enormous field that will be proved up. But I am trying to keep a lid on it for rational valuation purposes!)
Very interesting valuation point, Blackgold.
So based on the reasons given in my recent post and including rounding up and being optimistic, Aminex have 1TCF after next drilling. If Wentworth give a Net Present Value of $116m to 90.8 BCF then that makes Aminex' share over a $1bn.
Obvious caveats apply. Wentworth is in production. They are talking formal reserves and I am talking estimates. Etc.
But as an illustration of what Aminex have it is very useful.
Shares in issue are 3.9bn (call it 4bn). A value of $1bn on the asset is 25 cents a share. Convert to sterling.
Alcapone1, yes, and so is Aminex.
Just been looking at WEN s results and saw this
·" Wentworth's share of Gross 2P Reserves as at 31 December 2020 estimated by RPS to be 90.8 Bcf with a post-tax NPV10 of $116.6 million"
and wondered if/when they do get CH-1 drilled and assuming it proves up ("a mean risked recoverable gas resource of 1,990 Bcf ") and put into production, what then would Aminex's Gross 2P Reserves be estimated at and what would the NPV10 be calculated at ?
Hope so.. The new energy minister sounds keen to get on with things. Hope our approval paperwork is at top of pile!
Anyone expecting update by end September? Eitherway on 3d
Let's hope so ...fingers crossed
by this time next year the Chikumbi-1 well will hopefully have been spudded and be making some progress.
Atb,
Northern