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An excellent find by B on Telegram just now. This article mentions that they plan:
“a reverse liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline from the south-eastern Mtwara region to Uganda”
Our licence is Mtwara obviously. The offshore LNG is Lindi - about 100km North of Mtwara.
Ntorya is to the South and East of Mtwara.
This strongly suggests the pipeline to Uganda will use our gas.
https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/uganda-tanzania-trade-deficit-reduces-by-shs22b-4618968
They may plan to hook up to Madimba and take our gas from there? That’s even further east. Either way, it seems clear that the pipeline to ship gas to Uganda is starting from on our doorstep!
Almost full ask there.
No surprise for a trade of 1.3 million
Ufufuo,
When you go from a few TCF to over 16.38 TCF it opens up that opportunity. The deep water gas can come along when the massive LNG plant is built, until then, Ntorya could supply part of its gas to Uganda.
The LNG plant won't be up and running until 2030, and with the government looking at renegotiating the deal, that could easily be a few years more.
https://jpt.spe.org/tanzanian-government-producing-partners-sign-30-billion-deal-for-lng-export-terminal
Meanwhile, Uganda is desperate for the gas:
"Tanzania has nearly 50 trillion cubic feet of gas that it is exploring, which is more than enough to power the entire country and supply more to neighbouring countries. In Uganda, TotalEnergies and Cnooc – the operators of the Tilenga and Kingfisher oil fields respectively– intend to develop gas facilities. Uganda has an estimated 500 billion cubic feet of gas."
"This gas, which is expected to be depleted in just eight years, will be used to mainly power the different project infrastructure such as the central processing facilities, the flowlines and the crude export pipeline to Tanzania, among others. A small amount of this gas will be converted into liquefied petroleum gas for domestic consumption."
"Many homes in Uganda still use charcoal, which accounts for most of their energy needs. The use of charcoal has placed pressure on Uganda’s forest cover. Official figures place the loss of 72,000 hectares of forest cover annually on firewood and charcoal. This is equivalent to 100,000 football pitches, according to Uganda’s Energy Transition Plan."
"Shifting many of these homes to the use of gas is being seen as of paramount importance. It is not the first time that Uganda and Tanzania have discussed plans to build a gas pipeline. Tanzania’s government told Uganda about its interest to sell some of its large quantities of gas to neighbouring countries nearly 10 years ago."
https://observer.ug/index.php/businessnews/80969-uganda-tanzania-agree-on-new-route-for-gas-pipeline
Agreed SC. As I posted on Telegram a short while ago:
I agree it needs to be formally confirmed. It is pretty darned specific though. South East Mtwara. Points directly as Ntorya/Madimba.
Lindi obviously plans to have its own LNG processing facility and that is 100k North.
It’s just one article I agree but it all adds up.
If I were Uganda…
“I want to buy your gas. I need to know how much it will cost before we start spending on a pipeline (which they have)”
“Oh, you haven’t agreed a price for the offshore gas? In fact negotiations aren’t going very well at all? Oh!”
“You’ve discovered a world class gas field onshore? Wow! Great! You’ve agreed the GSA and the gas will be ready from next year and at a much lower cost that the offshore stuff?” Blo*dy amazing”
“Ok, sign me up. Let’s crack on with spending money on planning that pipeline then”
From about two weeks ago:
https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/gas-pipeline-study-to-cost-uganda-tanzania-shs5-6b-4599142
"Gas pipeline study to cost Uganda, Tanzania Shs5.6b"
TZS5,600,000,000 = GBP1,726,050
So the study alone is not exactly a cheap endeavour.
https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/gas-pipeline-study-to-cost-uganda-tanzania-shs5-6b-4599142
Also this bit suggests our gas will go to Uganda. Why else would Lindi and Mtwara gas extraction increase based on a pipeline to Uganda unless some of that gas was going to Uganda.
"In Tanzania, the project will increase the demand for natural gas and boost gas extraction, particularly in the Lindi and Mtwara regions."
https://www.tanzaniainvest.com/energy/uganda-gas-pipeline-feasibility-study-agreement
Doesn't appear to be any new money as similar but sells last couple days
News not immediate enough for big new money it seems. More of a hand holding reassurance. We need the licence with some boots on ground schedule to continue the push, but that could still come as early as Monday
Yup...but when it comes we will see serious news flow...ARA chomping at the bit to get drilling
I think that if there was any prospect of the Dev License on Monday, or at any point early next week, they would have deferred today's RNS and released them together. So unfortunately I think we will be waiting a week or two for the next release.
You may be right Crusty but perhaps you are thinking from a market point of view; whereas a marketeer sees good PR is being done by drip feeding into whatever market a product is being sold too.
In our case Aminex shares.
Anyway, whichever it is, it would be nice for it to come soon.
I'm sure ARA have a lot of beans to spill and news for us once the licence is in their hands. They are very conservative so don't give much away before news, the fact they have said the licence issue is imminent is surprising in itself and shows huge confidence on their part.
I get the logic but RNS's cost a LOT of money - you don't do more than you have to if you are on a tight budget. Besides which RNS's are meant to be reserved for price sensitive information and not designed as a medium for PR releases - that is what linkedin and twitter are for.
I agree entirely on the cost side, but if you take professional PR advice it needs to be followed even if it has some extra cost.
To hire them at probably great expense only to ignore them would be a foolish waste of money.
Sorry RJ, that point though being that if you have price sensitive information (as the Development license would certainly be) it has to be released when it is available NOT at the behest of some PR bumpkin. Though I would admit that it is questionable whether the Pipeline news would necessarily be considered price sensitive.
1.52 to buy atm
No intention to argue about it Crusty, I'm just giving you the view of a marketeer