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c £20 seems a great entry point.
I bought at about 2080 because I believed the LT value was at least 30% higher than that.
I would probably sell around 2800 because I'm not sure how high the value is or will be and I am entering a phase of my life where I don't want to or need to be spending time researching shares. So I'm going to be paying less attention. So if we reach a price where I'm no longer certain it is undervalued, I will just take profit.
I'm pretty sure anything up to somewhere around 2800 is undervalued. Beyond that, I'm not as sure. So if we hit that level, I'll either need to double down on research to re-evaluate and decide whether I still think it is undervalued or not, or sell. Other life ramifications will dictate that the decision would be to sell.
If Primark is booming by that point and anyone with half a brain can see that it's worth 3500 or more, that might change my mind. But right now, my view is that up to 2800 we are clearly undervalued, above that it is not so clear.
If I were intending to stay an active investor my answer might be different.
@Kall, I bought into ABF in late December 2018 when the SP dropped below 2100. Seemed too good to pass up. Obviously, if I'd known what was coming I could have taken profits at 2500 and then bought back in when it dropped again, but none of us knows the future.
I could hold this for up to 15 years but I probably won't. It's in a SIPP so it is a LTH hold for me. I suspect if we hit 2800 or so I'll cash out.
. The government should be regulating and not letting people with insufficient knowledge gamble on stocks."
I've done well as I trade and not be held to one share (watching it go down every year for 5 years)
How is discussing Joules, RL, Underarmour, ASOS, Next results defined as preaching"
Because with every post there is the obligatory "Primark is rammed" and get out of Boo as online will deteriorate. Which shows how silly you are trying to convert the online shareholders to bricks and mortar (against trends seen across the globe, those that travel and not just look in their local Primark).
LSE should restrict you from posting garbage like saying you have a team of analysts and with small movements you've earned equivalent to 6 detached houses in the south (more like plastic houses on a board game).
Warren buffet was commenting on short term decline over past 5 years the share price has doubled. When I mean short term I don't mean your version of short term of decades ether!
F Boo boards are such a bunch of gamblers what are you doing there preaching to the not wanting to be converted. As you said even Warren gets things wrong but unlike you he gets out of shares sometimes and arts he was wrong , you seem to be deluded thinking Primark will rule the world, Mr Market is abetter gauge than you and your team of anaysts (yeah right..
Share price does not matter to investors"
Think most would disagree even those on this chat forum! I'm sure if Warren buffets Berkshire Hathaway share price declined every year for the past 5 years the annual GM would be voicing their concerns.
The basic rules of investment by Benjamin Graham state, don't get swayed by Mr market take advantage of it"
Not what you said on Boo forum, don't catch a falling knife is what you said. That is usually mentioned on short term volatility however holding onto ABF is like flogging a dead horse ( for 5 years, which is very short term for you I expect). Smart invested would have seen the downward trend sold early and buy more shares for the same price later.
"one should not buy an investment they are not willing to hold for a decade or more."
This would lock out anyone over the age of 70 from investing, and many people as they approach retirement. It's simply not sound investment strategy.
It's entirely appropriate to have a mix of short term, medium term, and long term investments.
Wouldn't consider 5 years short term!
Just accept Mr market does not rate ABF like you do. Maybe they look at share price trends ( after all we are here to make money) and they actually believe the shift to online trends (rather than hiding behind bricks&mortar wall)....
When you buy a farm look at what the farm would produce, don't look at what the next door neighbour is offering"
Would not even call Boo next door but you seem to like watching or is that manuring everywhere...
Past month looks similar trend to past 5 years, downward trajectory. At least Boo has been rising, looking at abf peaks and troughs are getting lower each year.
"Did you invest in ABF without researching competition?"
Depends on what you mean by "researching". Did I look at the general market to see who was out there, and their products, and whether market share was likely to increase, decrease, or stay stable? Of course.
Did I research whether BOO had good financials, investigate their management to figure out whether I trusted them to properly manage a company I part own, investigate whether I had ethical concerns with their current approach and direction, try to place a value on them and figure out whether I thought they were undervalued or overvalued? No, I didn't do any of that.
But of course, one of the reasons I liked ABF was that it isn't just Primark. It's Primark that makes me think there's solid growth opportunity, especially if they succeed in the US at all comparably to how they succeeded in Britain. But there's also the rest of the company, which continued to be profitable through lockdowns. With ABF you have diversification. I liked that.
So, I never really considered BOO as an investment. Not because I didn't think it might be profitable and perhaps even more profitable. I think they've done an excellent job of gaining market share, though I'm not persuaded that will continue to grow. I don't know that. But I don't know anything about the company beyond that, really. Never bothered to find out.
Hope that answers your question.
Why debate either place? If someone is posting lots of off-topic stuff over there, posting about Primark on Boo board, report him. Off-topic posting is against the site rules.
Or filter him if you don't want to see it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58007313
Why debate on Boo board why not here. Thanks for shein link, have one for you around bricks and mortar retail, not looking at busy as you keep saying on boo board.
K and AATM
"Can I now continue my conversation on Boohoo board?"
Please do :-)
Ah, so this really isn't about ABF at all. Ok.
Don't really understand why people go posting on a share that they aren't invested and aren't thinking about investing, but whatever. Good luck to all investors in both shares. I don't see any reason to doubt my investment in ABF. Haven't researched Boo sufficiently to comment, but certainly they've had some success. It's not a company in which I wish to invest but that's not a comment about whether the case for investment is good or not.
I'm not sure they are really in competition with each other that much, they are mostly (IMO) targeting different market segments. Nor do I necessarily think it's an either/or investment proposition, I'm sure some people are happily invested in both companies.
"The most important thing to watch is whether Primark grew shops, sales, profits, geographies in those 5 years and the resounding answer to that is yes."
All that good work yet the market still not convinced, what will happen when landlords start to put up rent, low rent not sustainable.
Deramping as you have not made one positive comment on Boo, hold no shares and number of posts are excessive, especially when share price drops surprisingly. Why you want to share your online retail "concerns" and promote bricks and mortar on boo chat forum i do not know, how you don't think it is deramping is showing how silly you really are.
Of course share price goes up and down and tbh my main holdings are held in my company pension (save on paying tax) so like you will top up if it goes much lower.
For ABF I don't need to deramp, share price trend will no doubt continue on downward trajectory,throwing more money down the drain in my opinion. I know you think online retail is failing though and high Street is booming, so good luck with that.
The biggest point coming from Kallus posts for ABF is that Primark has lots of stores and rents are cheap.
If offline stores are the winners in the 20's - surely all these online plays will rapidly expand onto highstreets?
I am also worried for ABF - as the rise of ESG concerns are trickling down to consumer levels. We know that food delivery co's e.g hellofresh and gousto are much more environmentally friendly, healthy and convenient. Is this not a pressure on ABF's products?
Just need kallu to answer why he feels the need to constantly"advise" all those on Boo chat forum that Primark is the be all end all (just look at his constant deramping posts) when he can not answer the simple question of why ABF is down over a third in past 5 years, lower every year, each year. Why would Boo shareholders move across when share price has more than doubled in the same period. Simple question, no answer as yet. I ask the question on Boo but he just ends up (avoiding the question) promoting ABF and deramping Boo so thought I'd get more joy asking in a forum he actually holds shares with! So kallu what has changed with ABF and boo to suggest a change is needed?
My father taught me about investing before I was a teenager. He told me never to invest based on what I hoped a company would be, or thought it should be, because I wasn't going to change it. He said you invest on what a company currently is. And you invest on a company's direction, but only if what they say matches what they do -- if those don't match, you run the other way.
I think you just need to accept that ABF / Primark is what it is. If you don't like it or think it is a bad business model in today's world, you need to sell your shares and invest somewhere else. You aren't going to change the company, and you aren't going to convince those of us who see it differently by repeating the same thing.
That's the beauty of markets in the modern world. We can decide what we think the future holds and invest accordingly, and someone who views it differently can invest according to how they see it.
Good luck to you.
John Van Tam on BBC news mentioned pandemics will not be "the 100 year event" as seen over recent times with covid 19, swine and bird flu. Really need to push for online as closed Primark shops are not good for bottom line.
"Why has ii (institutional investors) not piled in"
I suggest you research investment strategies, especially contrarian or value investing. If you don't want to invest in that way, if you are more a growth or momentum investor, then I'd suggest that this is not the time for you to be investing in ABF.
I personally believe the most money is to be made on companies that the IIs are not piling in and are out of favour with the market, but where the company is strong and there is reason to believe in a bright future. But many people don't have the stomach for that because it can take a while, even if the evaluation of the company is right, for the market to catch up. And of course, you can get the evaluation of the company wrong. To succeed, you have to make sound evaluations of the companies and have the patience to wait for it to come good, and be willing to buy and hold even when the institutions aren't piling in.
If you wait until the institutions have piled in, you have much less upside, because when they pile in the SP rises.
Your questions here suggest you don't understand this kind of investing, which suggests this may not be the best investment for you. Good luck whatever you decide.
"This is what I love about Primark's strategy, it does not matter what macro or micro economic scenerio”
With more pandemics in past decade online presence is essential as store closures really hit the bottom line
Why has ii (institutional investors) not piled in
Still not answered why share price has dropped every year for past 5 years. What has changed to make this a buy now, how do I know I'm not catching a falling knife. Why has it not piled in at current price.