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Final one from me, but I came across this pitch update because a company called Odelle posted this on LinkedIn (which Yates liked)
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/odelle-technology_excellence-diagnostics-activity-7183021230294192129-2eH9?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
So it’s interesting to see what Odelle do, and the companies they’ve worked with
https://odelletechnology.com/about-us/
Overall it’s really obvious that Upfront have a very well planned and professional roadmap to market, involving professional and experienced consultants and with support of regulatory health powers that be. Great customer for us.
Also worth noting again that one of the benefits of IDAP is the potential for “Exceptional Use Authorisation” from the MRHA, which could come sooner than anyone expects.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-innovative-devices-access-pathway-idap/the-innovative-devices-access-pathway-idap-pilot-phase
Hi Apre
Everything you note is certainly relatable, but it’s the numbers in this latest update to their pitch that excite me, forecasts though they are.
And yes, whilst the trials are important and will take a little more time, it doesn’t appear to delay UKCA or CE applications which, according to this and prior versions of the pitch (see earlier in the thread) will be done this quarter. And then of course there’s IDAP, so at least in respect of UKCA I think we can expect a fast track approach to approval, fully supported by all the heavyweight national health bodies.
But like you, I’m no accountant and would love it if someone could shed more insight on the forecasts as they might relate to us.
Hi Muck, more terrific research there, thank you.
I am no accountant, so looking through the monster figures they are showing leaves me a little dazed (page 22). I have to focus on other layman's points like the improved diagnosis times and improved outcomes (pages 10 to 14), the comparison to competitors (page 18), the reference to the US 'go-to' market, especially the intended application for breakthrough device designation this year (page 20) which I find easier to relate to. All very impressive.
Again, as a non-accountant, I see the potential returns being suggested and think that a paltry £3m investment seems like small potatoes. Am I reading this wrong? There must be plenty of HNW individuals or venture capitalists, let alone institutions who could rustle up that kind of money . . . given the potential . . . no?
I did note from the road map (page 24) that UK clinical trials will not be complete until late 2024ish and US clinical trial in 2025, so a little more time required to dot the t's and cross the i's. But they are pitching for UK commercialisation around end 2024/start 2025 . . . which would be huge. Got to be a few tasty RNS's between now and then, surely. Presumably including a successful fund raise.
So, it would appear that Upfront have again updated their pitch deck.
I would encourage anyone here to read it, because this is the first time they have put forward financial projections - see page 22 of the report. I'd really appreciate comment anyone might have.
Apart from the size of the numbers, the one thing that stood out for me is that they are quoting "net revenue" figures, which they say are quoted after 30-40% distributor fees. No guarantees of course, but I would imagine we would be one of those distributors, as well as a manufacturer. Give the size of the numbers, those fees could be very significant indeed and, as Yates has said, recur year on year.
Upfront are very clearly on a funding drive at the moment to raise £3m., having been pitching all over the place. It will be interesting to see if they get it away, although I have little doubt they will.
https://media.licdn.com/dms/document/media/D4E1FAQGlCe3DkrR-fA/feedshare-document-pdf-analyzed/0/1712565286749?e=1713398400&v=beta&t=aihEAC-lBZsZNPQoOSlPvZgOm_-z5Pc44_JfLj2ALKs
Just one of the horses we will soon have running, and certainly one of my favourites.
yes they were set up has the head of the uk diagnostics consortium (government ******s) i went through all that with odx and abingdon. but looks like things are coming good finally and at a snip from when they floated over£1 gla ill certainly be holding for quite a while
Keeping it real of course but recognising quality when it's staring you in the face. This company has shown its metal through adversity .It had a much higher value before covid struck because it was always worth it. Those who know its story and want to wait a while, know they are onto a very, very good thing.
With you there Muck165. I'm sorry for tho
Yes but don’t get too carried away. Remember what the company was valued at when launched and during Covid before the legal wrangling started!Some of us still smarting besides doing pound cost averaging since!
Just say it as I see it Invwell!
The really key things for me are diversification of business risk, growing number of developers, lack of CDMO/CRO competitors, growing need and demand for product, high automated manufacturing capability, prudent management, and solid and growing customer base.
Could things go wrong - of course! But I think that prospect is far far lower here than in many other AIM stocks.
Thank you Muck165. You certainly present a good case for investment here. I wish had invested when it was at 4p, when I had the chance, but no use crying over spilt milk. However, getting it around now would be a good time and so many products that are involved with. 2024 looks the year to be in here
Thank you as ever Muck165. Fingers crossed for Loop then and specifically sales of Septiloop. Still all looking so promising!
Loop also filed for a U.K. trademark to cover Septiloop on 30/10/23, which was granted on 19/1/24.
Getting their ducks in a row..
https://trademarks.ipo.gov.uk/ipo-tmcase/page/Results/1/UK00003973303
Further on this, I note that since Friday (when I last checked), Loop have updated the project time line on their website to confirm the following achievements;
1) Clinical trial results in Q4 23
2) Clinical trial publications in Q4 23 (I haven’t been able to find these yet).
3) Technical file submitted for CE marking in Q1 24
4 UKCA mark Q1 24
They are now also signposting first U.K. sales in Q2 24, ie in the next 3 months.
To be honest, I’m surprised they haven’t yet made an announcement about UKCA. Perhaps this recent site update signals they’re about to, maybe alongside some other announcement?
Anyone wanting to compare old to new, here is a snapshot of the timeline on 25 March (best I could get)
https://web.archive.org/web/20240325163648/https://loopdx.com/
and here it is now
https://loopdx.com/
Hard to take in really. This little known company prior to 2020 , has had the capacity and know-how to assist the commercial success of other developing companies, at least 29 of them, and 3 of them are major UK retailers,Boots, Tesco and Superdrug. I think that is pretty amazing in itself. To have already made so many partnerships both in the UK and abroad, suggests ABDX possesses the necessary skills to maintain mutually beneficial business relationships hopefully for many years to come. If it continues to grow the way it has in 3 or so years, just imagine it's value in 10 years time.
Just to add, if one trick pony developers like Salignostics, Upfront, Loop etc fail to commercialise then they fail as a business. It’s a risky business where years of effort and money can go down the pan. Vatic is just one example.
So, companies want to partner with CDMO/CRO companies that can demonstrate established routes to market, high grade distribution/sales partnerships, and a history of assisting commercial success. It lowers their commercialisation risk and helps them attract their own funding.
That’s one reason why the commercial success of Salistick is important to us, as is our new relationships with Tesco, Superdrug, and Boots.
For info, I’ve said before that based on Yates LinkedIn reactions I suspect we’re working with a company called NIB Biotec, who are developing a prostate cancer screening test. This is the latest post he’s liked.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sergio-occhipinti-95469180_eau24-ugcPost-7181919044554342400-kBCs?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Only posting again about it now because I know they recently presented clinical results (although I’ve not seen them published), and they have significantly improved their site since I last looked.
I’ve little doubt at all that we’re involved with this.
https://www.nibbiotec.com/il-test-nib/
Awesome!
No shame here Lucksin!
Developing an LFT takes time and money, and the developer carries the risk of failure. We used to do it and indeed threw everything at it during Covid only to get shafted by the DHSC. That's like sticking your money all on one horse and losing.
So we re-positioned, and instead offered our services to other developers who have to fund their development and assume all the risk of failure. We get paid regardless. Its a bit like the owners paying us to train all the horses who race - we don't care which horses win, we get paid. Doing so has put the company on a much firmer footing.
But then there is a lack of competitors in our space to serve a expanding number of potential customers - so we can cherry pick the ones we want - that's like having first dibs on picking foals bred from champions.
And then we go further, because we will end up manufacturing for those customers that succeed. That's like taking a slice from the total winnings of every horse we've trained, horses which have been bred from champions for success.
And that's where we sit now. Our horses are starting to run. We have no risk if they lose, but stand to gain significantly if they win. And we potentially have a lot of horses running.
We have spread our risk by accepting lower manufacturer rather than developer margins, but mitigated that with the prospect of much higher manufacturing volume overall.
Have a great weekend all.
Thanks GM - I'm still not sure I get it but I nonetheless appreciate your reply! Have a great weekend.
Interactive Investor often offer a market best price when in Auction, so if you were determined to buy and not wait until it came out of auction, you can submit your order, but you generally pay the highest broker price. I tried it once only, and bought a share at a daily high as it turned out. Is that any help ?
Just wondering if anyone can hep me understand something.
As I understand it, only those with direct market access can place market orders during an auction. Before and during the mid morning auction today we had a 0.10 - 0.11 book, yet someone came in with a small order to buy 1,000 at 0.1105, ie above the Ask, and following the auction this 1,000 went through at 0.1105 as a UT.
I just don't get why someone would offer to buy stock during an auction at above the Ask? Can anyone explain, and whether or not any useful insights might be drawn from it?
Thanks in advance!
Where's the shame Muck165?, we reckon we are doing others a favour. At these prices, there's not much to lose at any rate!
*not a bad place at all to stick your new ISA allowance!
All IMO - DYOR and GLA!
Thinking about investing ISA money here? Well, here’s a few things to consider.
Covid thrust LFT diagnostics into the limelight, even though anyone who has done a pregnancy test knows it’s existed for decades. Now we’re through the pandemic the sheer number of LFT developers has exploded globally as they search for ways to quickly, accurately and cost effectively achieve diagnosis across a huge range of applications including human, animal, plant pathogen, and environmental testing. These developers are scientists that create biomarkers, the chemistry that attaches to a target to show a result, but they are NOT experts at putting it into a commercial LFT that can be manufactured at scale, nor do they have ready made distribution channels through which to sell.
This is where ABDX comes in, by taking great scientific LFT applications through to commercial success. And this is all against a backdrop of a move towards decentralised, personally managed healthcare which is necessary to release the strain and cost on national health systems.
For the last couple of years the BOD have had a clear plan, and they’ve stuck to and succeeded with it. Build your developer customer base, scale their projects, help them get regulatory approvals, and offer mass manufacturing and established industry and retail distribution channels. All the while it has remained at the forefront of LFT innovation, advancing much more accurate testing methodologies that combine the best of molecular (PCR) with the speed and cost effectiveness of an LFT, as well as advancing far more eco friendly, non plastic, test cassettes.
The business has gone from having just 13 ongoing projects at the beginning of last year to 29 now and of those, 50% are US based, a territory into which the company has also just planted a foothold. And we are now moving into the really interesting phase where the first of our customers developed and approved tests are commercialised and moving into mass manufacturing. More, including those already fast tracked by the NHS for widespread adoption, and targeting significant markets, are coming through the hopper.
It won’t be long at all before we are making millions of tests each month for this diverse customer base across a huge range of applications, and supplying a growing market. And we have few competitors.
And then there’s the management. Well, they own nearly a third of the company and have prudently navigated the company, and its finances, through difficult times to where we sit today. They’ve turned the tanker and now sit ready to put into full throttle.
And if you’re worried about a raise, don’t be, at least not to keep the lights on! The BOD have been crystal clear they don’t like the idea and don’t need to raise in 2024.
So, IMVHO, this is a well run, stable company that has positioned itself superbly to take advantage of an exciting paradigm shift towards rapid testing.
Not a bad place at a