Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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If you want a goldie that's rerating as we speak then check HUM out...
Thanks BushyTailed, when you buy in here just let us all know when we can buy AAZ.
ATB.
Ps when I do buy back it will be on a technical basis rather than a fundamental basis. My experience is that BOD's tend say whatever they need to under these kind of circumstances.
You should be looking at 3 different charts here for a buy in, the daily, weekly and the monthly.
At a very minimum you're looking for RSI divergence on the daily with a clear open and close above the 20ma plus the 20ma coming up to kiss the 50ma with ideally RSI divergence on the weekly too.
The monthly hasn't yet broken down and is now in strong divergence (which is good) so that's the one to watch. If the monthly RSI closes out below 33.74 then all bets are off and it's going towards 40p
Daily RSI. Massively oversold atm with a 12.5 handle so I do expect to see a little retrace as the market balances it's self out again bit I would be very cautious to buy into for the reasons set out above.
It's isn't finished yet.
80p might be on the cards short term over the next several weeks but if Q3 doesn't show an improvement or the divis get cut then it really will be 40p
Rather smug than mug.... Who throws away 50% inside 6 months for a maybe 50% in 5 years time???
My biggest advice to anyone who thought this was going to 180, is learn how to read financials and how to calculate discounted cashflows.
It even happens with stopped clocks at least twice day so no need to be too smug ;-)
Ok I've done a bit of trawling through AFVFN or whatever it's called. I hate that site even if it is richer in comments than this one!
Seems to me that Reza and big boss are not best mates any more. Questions. Were the protests spontaneous or organised by a government insider to further a bigger cause? Is BB or his acolytes now regretting giving AAZ new mining rights in exchange for swapping out rights to the gold mine and this is just the beginning of a sinister squeeze on the company just as they are at their most vulnerable financially - gearing up for new mines.
Or is it just a storm in a teacup?
I guess we'll have to wait to find out!
Lol...
I'll take being right for the wrong reasons any day of the week over being wrong for the right reasons.
BT you are an example here of being right for the wrong reasons. The catalyst for the sell off is clear, it has been happening since the local protests. The company sign posted falling near term production, conversion towards a focus on copper, new mines to deal with falling production, a thought out strategy including ensuring finance was in place to the transition and with excellent grades from drilling meaning Gilar would address the number 1 issue of near term production they were well on track with their plan. They MAY have mismanaged the environmental situation or even communication with the powers that be in terms of planning consents etc (personally I think that's unlikely) but people are selling due to the perceived risk of the president transferring licensed areas to Azergold or imposing heavy fines/other sanctions. Investors familiar with the company will have known about falling production and were investing as there was a plan for growth in the long term ... that part hasn't changed & frankly if people were selling for you reasons they weren't the brightest of investors to be holding anyway.
People are running for the doors because the balance sheet is in a mess.
I posted about the balance sheet concerns in April and suggested that this would be 60p come July.
60p has just been paid 19th July... It's literally in black and white both from the company and my earlier posts.
Thanks BushyTailed. I will add here that the most probable fate of the planet is absorption by the Sun in about 7.5 billion years, after the star becomes a red giant.
****, cplloyd addresses these concerns below far more succinctly than i have, but if you're struggling to find info online, then head over to some of the other message boards where you will find links.
There is plenty of risk here, but the thing causing the sell off is statements made by the president of the country following protests by villagers. There is a dividend to be paid next week (unless it’s extraordinarily cancelled) which will likely be re invested by many but this is a share that doesn’t trade in massive volumes but people are headed for the door in numbers.
If the president makes more positive statements and people buy back in plus divi reinvestment then the bounce will be equally as sharp but right now that’s a lot of ifs.
Without wishing to be dramatic, over the next month this could be trading in single digit pence or triple, dependent on news flow.
If everything gets back to normal then BT’s concerns about falling production are addressed by two new mines … they are worthless without a vote of confidence from the government in addressing environmental concerns.
There's a geopolitical risk that no-one here has mentioned yet
Where did you get your information of the political situation AAZ finds itself in? An internet search reveals nothing more than AAZ's RNS...
It's never too late to sell, only a fools and novices try to fight the market. 40p is another plus 50% away...
Buyers and holders beware
I’m pretty sure if you’ve held for a while and you’re selling now then you’re doing this investing thing wrong.
You get significant dislocations and illiquidity in microcaps in times of uncertainty. We don’t know the impact but fear kicks in and people want to dump at any price.
Far better to wait for news than let fear take over.
Gedabek is winding down anyway, contribution to 2028 production is negligible.
Strip out cash and inventory and we have a 60m market cap. That could be about 2x 2028 profit
Thanks BushyTailed. Yes I am often amused at all of the doom and gloom and how these pretty decent looking companies get played by the short sellers. Amusing to watch.
They look like they are going into that phase that all miners hit whereby growth lags, debt rises, dividends reduce and market cap dwindles. Then... after a few years of growth & infrastructure spend, production rises, cash increases and then shareholders get a minor amount while debt holders get lion share of repayments. And that's how it works. It's a simple process of the people behind the funding gaining nice profits while shareholders front the stress end of the business.
There's a golden period for these type of miners whereby they hit that nice crescendo of lower debt and nice cash flows before the entire cycle of growth funding goes around again.
For AAZ, that cycle is about 2 to 3 years away by looks of things. This year as well as next look the low points. Buy in 12 to 18months time is my view once they've delivered and debt pile known.
@debsjack....40p is much more realistic than 180p.
180p is circa 45 times earnings based on last year's financials, given that they're not even profitable at the current rate and face the Divi axe, I would say 180 is VERY VERY unlikely anytime soon.
Can't believe you're still posting this drivel whilst watching the SP slide, what drugs are you on exactly? You was wrong in April and you're still massively in denial now for some reason..
I get the feeling that not all views are actually that welcome. Well your money at the end of the day, I guess, enjoy the ride you lunatic.
And to pre-empt I told you so's, while this situation hangs over AAZ, there's every possibility it drops to the 40's and it probably wouldn't be a good thing to buy unless it resolves itself.
As an aside to below, the political situation is very concerning and a material risk to the company. If it sorts itself out quickly then the company should be fine, if the divi needs to be cut temporarily then although not being ideal, I don't think that in itself is a major issue that a couple of pence a share isn't paid out for 6 months. If the government decide to get permanently difficult, that's a major problem.
But the dam doesn't need fixing. There have been small scale protests about the planned position of the second dam, in the mean time they were raising the original dam, which again has been RNS'd. Since the small scale protests there have been independent tests that show all is in order with the dam. It's all there if you actually read the RNS's.
Unfortunately there's political issues in the background, with the President getting involved, making statements that he now needs to be careful not to lose face, and until that sorts itself out THAT is the danger hanging over the company at the moment, hence the risk adverse selling out, nothing to do with an established mining company taking out a £30million debt facility for mine development several months ago.
Thanks BushyTailed for updating, that every pro analyst broker got AAZ so wrong. They all predicted 180p+ in 12 months time. Would you say more like 40p?