Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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@Lordof Burnley - Not so easy to do when the value of those assets is likely inflated to suit regulatory covenants. Actually realising that value on an open market basis is probably impossible. I regretted selling Ariana shortly after Covid hit when the price plummeted to around 2.5p when I sold. Now, it appears I was lucky.
Looks a slightly odd Balance Sheet for Ariana. Hardly any assets (like plant for mines etc) showing and so not being written off over time. Most of the assets are either cash or 'investments'. Whilst I'm far from being an accountant, unless there's a large rights issue or any of those investments are written off (for whatever reason) then, even with production being down, as long as there's a profit being declared, then the net assets are likely to increase (and, in turn so will the NAV per share...unless, as I say, more shares are issued.
I'm probably massively wrong (and happy to be put right by those more qualified than me) but to my layman's eyes it does appear as though it would be better just to shut up shop and pay out the asset value to the shareholders right now.
Perhaps considering the weakest production/sale figures in about 7 years.....the nav is not anywhere near 2.32p?
I do begin to wonder, John (if it's beyond management's wit).....
I'm not selling out myself....it just doesn't make sense when the NAV per share is 2.32p. as I say, though, some director buying wouldn't go amiss or, as you say, John, some statement from management about sp movements would be appropriate. What is not appropriate is a lack of management comment/intervention.
Would it be beyond the management's wit to release a statement saying that they are not aware of any operational.reasons that would cause this mornings share price movement?.Assuming of course there is none. A further delay in Tavsan is the only obvious thing operationally. Let's face it the farce that is Cyprus is already written off in moat peoples.minds so further delay in the IPO (which everyone is expecting anyway).would not cause this
Yes we are waiting for the comments from the 'space brothers'!
Lets be honest ESG and green communism is killing mining.
Maybe DJ out again?
I'm a long term holder into the 2030s, lets hope this is short term noise.
Nm
Ooh today is not nice
Down again. Very browned off now, there is no management effort to stop this continuous decline. 2p is starting to look like aspirational now. I saw the various sweepstakes on the other board, do they look optimistic or what?
From the Ariana website on the process at Tavsan.
Preliminary metallurgical test-work conducted in 2008 by SGS Lakefield Research Limited confirmed that processing using heap-leach methods would be suitable for the Tavsan mineralisation. Recovery rates on average grade gold mineralisation (1.4 g/t Au) of 80% for gold and 26% for silver are expected based on column-leach test-work, although further test work is required, particularly for higher than average grade gold mineralisation (4.2 g/t Au). Initial test-work showed that higher grade mineralisation demonstrated lower recoveries (67% for gold and 22% for silver), though the limited distribution of such mineralisation is not considered extensive enough to be a metallurgical concern at this stage.
We are now told that there is higher grade ore at Tavsan, the only hope is that the recovery rates are better than 67%.
The figure of $800 comes from pure pessimism. I know that Zenit currently makes $1,000 per oz but costs keep going up and we do not know the long term profitability of Tavsan.
Heap leaching can take anything from a couple of months to several years. In the case of gold recovery, heap leaching generally requires 60 to 90 days to leach the ore, compared to the 24 hours required by a conventional agitated leach process. Gold recovery is also usually only 70% compared with 90% recovery in an agitated leach plant.
....if things are always so good...so why aren't we seeing directors piling in at these levels? Hmmmmmmm......
PS Had to log in to 'recommend', in all sadness, your last post, John
Stranger, I find your post interesting, thought provoking and depressing!
Prospects throughout the world are just that. Prospects. How do we know even a single one of them will pass financial viability tests? How many will be subject to corruption if they do threaten to be successful? What will happen to the basket case that Cyprus is (which DJ always said it would be)?
Where does the figure of $800 post tax ex Zenit come from. Was that published?
Can't see Zenit distributing full net profits while Salinbas needs developing. Chuck in a plant at Salinbas and we might see Tavsan simply providing cash for that the same way as Kiziltepe provided cash for the Tavsan development-- with the exception that Salinbas will require far more. Cant see 50% of Zenit dividends given to AAU being given to AAU policyholders given the number of early stage non Zenit projects that keep being added. No way of knowing but a max 20-25% would be my guess.
Given all the lifestyles that Ariana supports you wonder how long it will take for the mythical half billion valuation when every project takes more like 2 decades rather than 1.
You began by stating 'Ariana’s share price is somewhat below its real value'. I wish I could be sure that is true these days. I am certain of one thing though. It was way over valued at 6.25p, will be many a long year until you see than again. We may approach 3p after Tavsan is shown to be producing smoothly. But 3p will be a very high wall, very hard to cross with barbed wire, broken glass and razor blades on top. It will take some spectacular unexpected news to do that because otherwise if this share reaches that level hoards of disenchanted shareholders will be heading for the exit. Including me.
I’m not expecting a dividend until 2026, 2025 if we are lucky.
It has to be done for us to be taken seriously compared to our peers on AIM.
Ariana’s share price is somewhat below its real value because investors have lost hope of seeing a return on their investments in the medium term and worry that all the profit from Zenit will continue to be ‘invested’ in multiple prospecting companies throughout the world and that these prospects will only give returns on the long-term.
Assume that Zenit makes $800 per oz profit after tax and that Kiziltepe produces another 60,000 oz gold and that Tavsan produces 300,000 oz gold over the next ten years then the total profit for Zenit would be $288,000,000 (£228,570,000) of which Ariana will be entitled to £53,714,000.
Now this seems to be a large amount of profit, however it does depend on Zenit declaring and paying 100% of the profit as dividends payable to the three partners.
Assuming that all Zenit’s profit is distributed then the next question is how much of Ariana’s share of the profit would be taken by administration costs, tax etc. I have used £750,000 admin per year and a tax rate of 20% to give a total net profit of £36,970,000 over the ten years. The real question is what percentage of Ariana’s net profit would it return to shareholders as a dividend.
I hope that a large proportion of the net profit (at least 50%) is returned as a dividend to shareholders with the remainder being split between a strategic reserve fund and some funds to keep Kerim happy investing in prospects all over the world.
I fear that the share price will continue to languish and will never reflect the true value of the company if Ariana does not come up with a definitive policy to return value to shareholders via dividends.
Come on Poots make America great again,
https://ibb.co/mNWPvRJ
Keep the dollar alive!
‘Invest in North America! ’
Vote for the God Emperor Trumpious - MNAGA!
Yup - this year IMO.
O say' can you see
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDWpqdjHzKk
BRICS (or PRICKS) ? The writing is on the wall. Invest in North America!
https://simplywall.st/article/mexico-the-deglobalization-winner-of-2024?
We had not sold out our lucrative holdings in Tavsan and Salinbas where would the SP be now?
Maybe 3p or 4p.
Imagine if there had been no pandemic and electric cars did not catch on fire, the Venus IPO may have happened and we may have been at 10p with dividends.
There is a disconnect between the price of gold and the price of gold mines that has to sort itself out at some point.
Ps. Anyone who bought more than 15 years ago are massively in the red. That's what you call a Fun Fact.
Anyone who bought these shares 15 years ago paid exactly the same SP as they are today. I'm sure any such 'investors' are happy with their decision and reassured by the twitter ('X') photographs of several worked out pits - or maybe they wonder where all the income from those pits went other than on Board salaries, pensions and perks?