Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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Thanks BBD, glad I'm not going mad and what I said is indeed crystal clear!
You insist it's an "assumption", but the imminent change is a fact. It is wrong to describe it as a "placing", or even a potential placing, but that's just semantics: the underlying point is that shares will become sellable, when they were previously locked up, wouldn't you agree? No-one has assumed they will be sold, AFAIK, just pointed out the new possibility.
"There will be no secondary placing I assure you.
Its actually quite annoying that you insist there will be"
Apologies in advance, but it seems to me you are the only one insisting Stioc? By the way, nice to see a bit of pointless antagonism on this board: back in the day it was just me talking nonsense to myself.
It's annoying that you keep saying I'm assuming things. I said it may or may not happen but it couldn't happen previously most likely but can in June. That is not insisting. We are on the same side - I own shares as I hope the risk is priced in around here.
Part of being a good investor is being aware of *potential* risks both to the upside and downside and knowing how you feel about and would deal with them.
nice one , anty.
as said, someone wants in lower, and will use all methods.
Sorry that reply is from me btw (logged in on my phone but seemingly with a very old account that I thought was expired, hence the '2.0' in my name)
Fingers crossed for sure. I hadn’t thought on the Naira before but on the last articles I can see it’s down about 15% vs Feb on black market and maybe with oil price it’s recovered since, so it’s significant but not a huge value destroyer.
As I said, hopefully the parent company won’t sell its stake at these levels but shares absolutely can underperform when placings are feared and as you say, there was a lockup to protect holders from more share sales (not dilution, it’s one owner of the company selling its stake to the market) and that ends in June. Hopefully it won’t happen at these levels but you simply can’t say it’s not a real possibility, because factually it is.
A lockup exists to reassure investors there won't be further placements. If that wasn't a possibility it would not exist in the first place.
I've already said I own some and think the stock is cheap enough to want to look through that, but it is a viable risk and a possible driver of under-performance.
What exactly is nonsense? To dismiss a balanced, reasoned and appropriately caveated post is nonsense.
For a starters you misunderstood the placing which I did explain very clearly. The company is owned by another listed company. That company originally sold stock to investors last year to realise part of the value of AAF. As of June they can choose to do so again.
Sorry I mean that the parent company was restricted from selling more of its stock to the market until 12m after the IPO, yeah. It's a secondary placing in that it's not to raise money for AAF, just to realise an investment for the parent company. May well not happen but it's possible vs. impossible right now due to lockup.
Agree it can be shorted for sure, but I don't think that it's being manipulated down. In the same way a share price can rise without being manipulated, I mean.
Also as I say I'm invested here so hope all good, but when a dividend yield is high it can be that the market is saying it will be cut/rebased eventually. No reason I know of that will happen to AAF, but obviously someone believes it and we hope they're wrong.
Why would they need to do a secondary placing of shares? The free cash flow for year-end Mar 20 is $453 million, an increase of 200.7% compared to year-end Mar 19.
I've just been comparing the fundamental between AAF and VOD.
VOD Pre Tax Profit for year-end 31/03/20 795m EUR m/c 35B Debt 105B
AAF Pre Tax Profit for year-end 31/03/20 598m USD m/c 1.3B net Debt 3.247B
oh... by "lock up" do you mean the Board authority to allot more shares (from AGM)? or something else?
simple - the lower it goes, the higher the % DIV for the same cash. clear incentive to get in lowish right now, capitalise from cap gain plus income. happens to alot of high paying DIVs, i note. GENL (ex div tomorrow). LGEN (April).
you don't think a stock of this size can be shorted? or SP moved to order fill????
I don't think it works like that on a stock this size. It may be being shorted ahead of a possible secondary placing of shares next month (lockup from listing ends). Hopefully it corrects but nothing this size underperforms day on day with no reason (be it a good one or not). Have a moderate position within a wider portfolio so just sitting on it right now.
It's trading like an utter dog to be fair. Normally a reason for such extensive underperformance, we'll see though.
Got more sub 36p.I would imagine some buying momentum as dividend record day approaches. A generous dividend is certainly attractive. Have enough now will watch and wait. GLA