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To obtain income returns and a capital return for its Shareholders by acquiring, leasing and then selling aircraft.
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I think it was binary. Either it was going to fail (because the airlines would fail) or the share was (and still is) wildly undervalued. It has yield of >15%, a massive discount to NAV and shareholder activists who want more. They have two customers, both of whom are paying and on a very good trajectory. I expect this will hit 64 - 70p and sit there yielding nicely. This was a genuinely mispriced share given the improvement in the situation of their key customers. Still upside possibility in related shares (Dna2 and 3). But I waded in here when I saw that dna2 had gapped up and aa4 had not followed far enough
Its always good to ask Why? did this outperform. It was obviously blown out but so are many other stocks we believe are so.
I think the key was rapid dividend growth before this week's dividend rise.
Are any other stocks that show this characteristic?
Got to agree an amazing day, and validates the research and faith in the big old bird :)
And no it's not a turkey, but an A380 :D
More to come... if you take DNA and £25.3 Million ($30m) as the base price for an A380, and break it down as,
* $12M half life settlement price had to be paid =$18M was the purchase cost for Emirates.
Now AA4 have a full life return term = $17m settlement Half life + the cost to bring back to full life at emirates costs. Or Min Life settlement $25m + the cost to bring back to full life at emirates costs.
This i believe is for 6 x A380 + 2 X B777, in the prospectus docs.
If they paid $18m for half life with DNA, then AA4 should be around = $17m settlement half life + $18m (DNA example)= $35m as a base case per a plane. giving somewhere about $233m + Dividends + the remaining A350`s
Nice to pick some winners in this market :)
I went a bit wild on these between Nov and last week. I just could not really see a down side. So today has been amazing. I have a dividend chasing strategy and either a stupid high yield means a company is going down or the company is undervalued. In this case (as per DNA 1 - 3) the company was valued as if travel was stopping and yet the two lessor companies have full aircraft. I still expect more from this share but am at my limit in terms of portfolio concentration as a result. I will hold at this price but reinvest dividends and the buy back in other things now. But happy days!
There was a pullback in October of 5%. I am a bit more of a trader. I have sadly been reduced a little on the way up when I should have been adding. Overall a terrible year down 1.5% for me having had double-digit gains last year... but like you looking for unloved blown-out stocks for my diversified portfolio.
Sadly not, damn it! I'm waiting on a few dividends to arrive at the end of the month and was trying to avoid selling something to buy here. I tend to identify a company I like and then build a shareholding over the long term.
But this still looks a good investment so I'm not put off at all (in fact the opposite). Perhaps there will be a chance to buy on a pull back.....
Guitarsolo, did you manage to make an investment ahead of today's dividend increase?
Many thanks SimonM for your response, that is most helpful.
Regards
GS
The A380/ B777 loans are pretty much in effect, covered via Emirates. And as the airline is a subsidiary of The Emirates Group, which is owned by the government of Dubai's Investment Corporation... The risk here on insurance should be reduced.
The situation with Thai Airways has improved steadily since the restructuring completed in December 2021. The airline is Now back to fixed payments from January 2023. And hopefully should start to see a positive return on this are to income.
All loans are taken in USD. The Company uses a combination of fixed and variable debt loan instruments. Maturity dates
are set at 12 years from delivery date or otherwise to match the corresponding lease end date. The weighted average
rate for the Company’s Senior Loan is 4.0% and 5.2% for the Company’s Junior Loan (31 March 2022: 3.3% and 5.2%).
Also worth noting is that AA4 has a different specific return condition, when compared to the Doric funds ;p
Good morning all,
I came across this share recently and it peaked my interest. I'm currently doing a bit of research to see if it has a place in my portfolio as an income generator.
There are some substantial loans on the P/L account but I haven't yet found details of the terms. Can anyone advise if these are predominantly fixed or variable rates? Do the durations tend to match the lease to Thai/Emirates?
I also note the Asset Manager's comments as well that they monitor the lessee's obligations regarding insuring the aircraft. Have there ever been any issues here?! I particularly note some current aviation insurance restrictions regarding Russia etc. I only ask as in a professional capacity I come across situations where this has gone wrong! (Note, I am not talking about companies of the quality of AA4, Thai or Emirates!). Provided insurance of the aircraft is secure this isn't a significant risk to worry about.
Many thanks in advance,
Guitarsolo
I should add this is one of www.migoplc.co.uk holdings and I allow them to do the Due Diligence on this one for me and bought it directly last year. If they reduce, I will reduce! Otherwise, just take the silly chunky dividend.
Emirates increasing flights to keep up with Chinise demand only just starting to come in!
AA4 is so tricky to value other than a growing dividend.
Otherwise impossible to value.
But there should be quite some more to come.....
https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeings-delays-could-give-airbuss-a380-an-active-retirement-11672690947
Onwards and upwards
Just incase it was missed.
Amedeo Air Four Plus Ltd - Guernsey-based aircraft investment company - Says net asset value per share on September 30 up 30% to 117.23 pence from 90.34p on March 31. Swings to pretax profit in the six months that ended September 30 of GBP55.8 million from GBP2.9 million loss a year earlier. Maintains previously announced target half-year quarterly dividends of 1.50p each, up from none a year earlier. Says directors believe its current share price undervalues the company's portfolio. Says it will explore all avenues to unlock this value.
Someone added another nice block of shares ;p
16-Dec-22 11:21:46 38.50 680,000 Unknown* 36.50 38.50 261.80k
Looks like someone added ;p
12-Dec-22 08:00:00 37.00 594,595 Unknown* 36.00 38.00 220.00k
Bargain Friday...Nice to see my Buys for 36.50, showing as red sells( cheers HL) :D
Currently waiting on the 65% profit return of capita, from DNA which i have been forward filtering across to AA4.
Nice to see every man and his dog only showing a 3.378% Yield,lol... When it is a worth lot more ;p
Nice to see the increase in the dividend rate, and underlining the potential for more increases into next year....
Effectively a 20% reduction in outstanding shares I think. GL DYOR.
Effectively a share buyback of approx. 86m shares and cancellation so from approx. 434m shares now approx. 347m shares. Hopefully quarterly divi to be re-introduced next year. DYOR.
Hey, anywhere here in on AA4 and understand what is going on with the shares/dividends?
Recent article....
https://simpleflying.com/thai-airways-rehabilitation-plan-update/
Thailand also opening up to some International travel from November 1st.....
Thailand plans to fully re-open to vaccinated tourists travelling by air from countries deemed low risk from November 1, Premier Prayut Chan-O-Cha said Monday.
The 10 countries considered low risk include Britain, the US, China, Germany and Singapore.
"When they arrive, they should present a (negative) Covid test... and test once again upon arrival and they can travel freely like Thais," the prime minister said in a televised address.
There is a fairly good write up Re: DPA
Rns dated 13 May. A bit longwinded.
They have some aircraft with Thai Airways.