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RoxburyHouse.
I have, over the last few days seen several reductions in shorts, yet Societe and others still have considerable short holdings.
I don't understand why.
Rox - forgive the public nature of this message but I do not have an email for you. whilst good news you set out below, the oracle emailed me indicating there will be a small correction. This and the number of shorts still open suggest an extension to me. I publicly pay tribute to the oracle for reaching out given the number of other things he has on, his business being locked down etc. Shows he is a 5 star person as well as giving incredibly accurate share forecasts.
Also today.
RNS Number : 8641F
Societe Generale SA
Reducing a short position
200,000
Hi 33 your not a nuisance! I like your posts.
Naaa I’m finished with Pharma now I’m only interested in recovery stocks. Frustrated that I pulled out of Saga but like I said before that was not your fault. It was the man in the mirror -me.
I have a really good feeling about the AA and secretly hope that no offer is accepted so we go the refinance route. If so I see £1 in the next 6 to 12 months if not earlier.
Again all IMHO of course.
Engadine Partners LLP reduced short from 0.82% to 0.78% yesterday.
Once 90% by value of the shares subject to an offer and associated voting rights are acquired the takeover can finalise.
Persons holding out for higher offer price that fall within the last 10% have their shares purchased at the agreed price.
{so once its 90% its a done deal and the shareholder are paid [or the offer is completed]
I have been a holder in the last 10% looking for a higher price as i felt the offer agreed was to low, but had the above rule insigated by the company and my shares were paid out at the offer price.
Once the 90% is reached then the pay out timetable is given.
Of course there is no dealing fees on the payout. Dealing fees are low theses days so that shoud not be a contrant to an early sale as the market in the shares will close and you have to wait for the payout..again covered by a timetable ..
I am happy either way how this pans out
The company I work for is having many more charging points fitted at car parks at our airports and hospital sites , a particular glitch I noticed with some of them is when we did a monthly generator test at a hospital ( switched off the incoming mains electricity to particular buildings and the generators start up and power the building for X hours etc )
When we switched back we found out a couple of charging points hadn’t rebooted and the cars owners were unable to remove the plug from the
charging unit ! There’s a pin that interlocks to prevent unauthorised unplugging during charging etc anyway we got a technician just to what we call
a power cycle ( switch off/ on ) and the car owners
could then unplug, one woman was getting irate
( just finished a night shift etc ) I know now if I get an electric car how to adapt the plug to stop being stranded in some out of town shopping centre!
Anyway several companies are tendering to have the service contract once we have finished the projects,
I can see the AA being very active in this sector going forwards so much future potential and ties in well
with the whole of electric vehicle service/ breakdown market
Good short or long term investment
a win win
GLA
Thank you Rox (and Taverham) for your response. Counter offer is a possibility but reason taking so long may be board and PE aware of this and large IIs not going to want too big a loss. But if the AA board, hypothetically, recommend a 60p offer from the PEs and share price goes up to 58.5 (using Taverham’s point) then it would be quite tempting to sell half my shares straight away rather than wait 1-6 months for the cash (and risk a significantly higher counter offer being made and accepted). I think We both have similar averages so would be doubling our money at 58p. The time value of money and ones approach to risk.....
Obviously there could be another extension and do you top slice in that circumstance before too much of a dip.
The above are Hypotheticals and not asking you to answer. Make the point in case it is of interest and/or use for others on here. I have learned lots from the likes of you, Dimitri, Darren etc.
Hoping there is a deal announced before 24th.
NRL, in my experience 1-6 months. Sometimes the sp can rise above the offer price, if short sellers have to close but usually it is 2-3% below.
Hi NRL sorry I don’t know the answer to your questions I’m afraid. My understanding also is that they need 75% so your first question should be what % is held by PIs? Could they get approval by simply getting the IIs and large PIs to agree?
Even if they do get agreement then I believe there has to be a period of time for counter offers to be put forward.
I’m learning as I go along so don’t take what I have written as gospel.
I would never advise anybody what to do but this is my plan.
If the bid fails and PE pull out (my preferred option) I expect the share price to dip so the MMs can take out stop losses and then rally quickly.
If a bid is accepted by the major shareholders it will have to be good (55p+)
BUT I genuinely think there are other parties in the wings which will make a counter offer 75p+
I bought into the AA as a short term punt but I am not selling any of my (644,809) shares until they hit 100p which I genuinely think they will.
Hope this helps and please remember this is all my opinion and I could be completely wrong.
Good luck whatever you decide.
Rox - In your experience of trading and I am asking as you appear forthright and honest, how long does it tend to be between an offer being approved by the board and the shareholders receiving their funds? Read they need 75% of votes to approve the sale price. So I assume there would be an EGM.
For some and hence my question, if the price is close to the offer price (eg 60p if sell via broker rather than, for example, a 65p if resolutions approved) it may be worth selling between offer and completion to potentially avoid missing out on some covid bargains. May be academic in that TalkTalk seemed to automatically rise to the offer price. But may depend here on what multiple of the share price the offer is. Hope that makes sense.
Saga unbelievable today. Do not think Solg will do similar but could be 20-30% up if AA offer lands /approved by the Board on Friday and funds received in a month.
Hoping for an offer as if this reaches 40p late Friday I will be tempted to cash in the profit element of my holding.
Papps Your Welcome.
The AA has got massive potential even if no bid materialises IMHO.
Check out the following Income statement from Wall Street Journal:
Https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/UK/AA/financials/annual/income-statement
RoxburyHouse,
Thank you for pointing me towards AA last week. I was absolutely gutted I got out of AML before the rise that week after taking note of posts I probably shouldn't have.
I am still gutted, but this is a good second option! Still can't believe I put a sell order in by accident just before opening Monday and had to quickly buy back at a 2-3p SP difference!
Anyway sh*t happens. I know this is also not guaranteed bit there are good vibes around it and hoping to make back my mahhhusssive losses from RDS by close of year and some with a bit of luck! Anyway glad to be heavily reduced exposure in RDS now. Feel much better having a much more diversified portfolio! Anothe 25k to make and should be where I left off last November lol!
Guys I think this is coming to a head now, let’s hope it’s good news and not another gutless extension !
Don’t think I have the appetite to do this all again.
Let’s get this done and dusted either way at least we then know where we’re going.
There’s some really good ex COVID deals ahead and we don’t want to miss out on them .
Fingers crossed for a speedy result soon.
Davie, hold on tight - it can't be much longer.
Absolutely the same, but only 10% of your holding! In at 23, wishing I'd sold at 39, now holding my breath...!
BKM, I've 104,000 at average of 25p. Been up to 39p and experience drop to 22p.(not nice) Looking good now though - keep the faith
BKM1010 Agree with u, 60p to 80p makes sense....Good Luck All
Having watched this share for a while I’ve always felt we could get an offer, my own personal thoughts are it will be between 60-85p, it could even go higher but who knows if we will get low balled first ?
If this is the case it will be blocked by the largest share holders who are averaging fairly high SP’s, there’s always a chance if low balled it would open the door for an interloper so the PE boys will need to be cute and sharpen their pencils if they want to put this one to bed having spent so much on DD.
Finally!
Wakey wakey.... bid announcement imminent IMO. GLA
I’m in here with 440,000 shares, averaged at 32.4p its been a painful journey so far, at one point down £35.5k but I’ve believed from day 1 even if this deal doesn’t happen the long-term outlook was and is good for the AA. Fingers crossed we hold today’s gains followed by a decent TO offer and hopefully we can all have a good result. ??
Who will by EV's, the out of touch politicians don't grasp the fact that those who buy new cars or lease new cars can admirably afford to, those who prefer a manual will hang on to that convention until the end, those who usually only pay a grand for something with and MOT will carry on doing so, those who pay just a few grand will carry on doing so, who would buy a second hand EV with a degrading battery? they are fukcing ugly anyway. Betamax comes to mind. They just realized the potential loss in road tax, faster than speeding bullets this lot.
Mark true it looks very positive for the final offer price...60p plus
Just checked price ?? offer coming in???