We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Yes the article is wrong, it wont be the first or last
My article states Umiat leases are state owned along with the airfield. Perhaps it’s wrong
17:51
Umiat Airport (airstrip) appears to be classed as State Owned, but most certainly Umiat & Pergrine are Federal (BLM) leases.
As for the "pipeline" does anyone know what size is required 6", 12", 24"? sure it all makes a difference, BRPC used 6" to hot link into the Alpine pipeline.
But unlikely to be 88E in my view and certainly not within the near future.
Ford707
That is remarkable, check page 14 of the annual report, it shows NPRA land in grey, with Peregrine and UMIAT enclosed within
http://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20210309/02351475.pdf?uid=13CBA0A32B27F6A204EB73A3F6331AD0A16800009275AE7C8BB9E540093D250091850000&ppv=
I wonder if there are any other companies out there that are under or overvalued?It can’t be just 88e and The NN can it? Of course the there are. I’m pretty sure it happens all the time. So is our favourite pain in the arsenal.
No ignorance here mr 126. Just pure genius. With far fewer words and much much less time wasted. I agree with lots of what you say except when you let your demon out of its bag and start to insult, decry, torment, and inject vitriol and scorn by the bucketful on your fellow human beings.
It is very obvious you are here to try and convince all 88e investors to jump ship and invest in your beloved NN. I was convinced many moons ago. I don’t need you and I suspect most others who write on here don’t need you either.
I suggest you stick to that board and throw insults over the garden fence if you must.
For what it’s worth - my valuation of 88e on my spreadsheet is 4 times what you estimate. But also your favourite share gets my thumbs up too. Happy now?
GS
Just looked again and it says state land, dunno perhaps my phone is wrong
Scot, you know yourself that no-one cares for the fundamentals. If we/I did, nobody in their right mind would invest in 88e. It's all about the hype, the March drill. Any sniff of success could send the SP well over 2p and then some.
Investment = potential
Trading = hype,
17:51
Fact check - Umiat is located on Federal land.
17:51 and 17:54
FORD707 - you're kidding, aren't you? Investing is all about "hype, sentiment and potential". You can't be serious.....was that some sort of joke, FORD707? If so, I don't get it?
Everyone and their dog knows I'm a fundamental investor. For anyone who considers himself a trader, there's a huge value arbitrage opportunity between 88E and NN. Perhaps that's more your thing, FORD707?
I suppose this thread is making tiny steps of progress in the journey towards reality. More and more posters are finally admitting 88E is a hype and sentiment trade only and that they recognise the fundamentals ***do not support*** the mkt cap of £200m.
Question for you, FORD707? Would you buy 88E shares tomorrow at 0.92p?
How can an objective assessment and calculation be nonsense. The basis for the mathematical calculation is from public information, not dreamed up. The historical articles and assessment produced by those far more in the know tell us that Umiat is uneconomic.
Objectivity and sensible conservative calculation are not the friends of many an 88e investor, including many here, because when you press the equals button on the calculator the answer is unpalatable.
Let's dream about the next election, political support or the fact that green lobbyists will assist in arguing for more fossil fuel extraction. the last one is my favourite.
Get on with exploring the viably explorable!
Which by the way is what trading and investment is about!
Loads of info on linc and pipeline. With your calculations of a billion it’s still a lot cheaper than ConocoPhillips estimate of 8 billion. Umiat has an air strip already, it’s state land and I believe linc estimated 200 million for the pipeline. Anyway who knows, one day we’ll see. Knowing that 88 is hype, sentiment and potential, why are you still pursuing this nonsense
16:48 and 16:59
There's moral support on a tough day and then there's wilful ignorance. I contend Goldstinger's opinion is ignorance but Brom's content is something a great deal darker. Readers will note that Brom hasn't even acknowledged the ***mathematical fact*** that the NPV per barrel in the ground at Umiat/Peregrine today is *less* than it was yesterday. Just one variable in the calculation needs to be adjusted to reflect the extended timetable until Willow is available to be piggy-backed. Not one poster can deny this mathematical fact. No matter the futile attempts at deflecting, the maths do not lie.
Looking again at the pipeline eastwards solution. The gas pipeline parallel to TAPS is budgeted to cost c.$47m per mile. A Peregrine/Umiat/Icewine/TAPS pipeline will have a narrower diameter, but the construction will be on virgin land, crossing multiple rivers, on a caribou migration trail.....hell, let's just call it $10m per mile, shall we? 92 miles x $10m = approaching a billion dollars and how many years to completing construction?
Is anyone here seriously thinking any potential buyer won't be taking into account the capex cost of an eastwards pipeline ***before*** coming up with an offer per barrel in the ground then you're living in cloud cuckoo land.
All of which takes me back to something cbaron, Rabito79 and I have been suggesting for weeks/months now. Project Icewine looks to be 88E's best chance of achieving any value whatsoever for its loyal shareholders.
88E's own partners on Peregrine, a bunch of grizzled Alaskan veterans we were told, valued Peregrine at $28m plus add ons. Let's call it $30m because I'm in a generous mood.
The 88E BoD themselves value Umiat at $1m, from the purchase price.
Yukon? Entirely reliant on partnering with companies located to the west of Yukon and raising 88E's share of exploration, appraisal and development costs. I reckon $20m max but let's call it $50m because, as already stated, I'm in a generous mood today.
That's $81m plus Icewine plus cash at hand supporting a mkt cap of $275m. Thus, using my numbers, the market is ascribing $190m to Project Icewine minus cash of, say, $35m......call it $150m for ease of maths?
So there we have it. I contend the market is today valuing Project Icewine at $150m. My research suggests the maximum 88E can hope for from the "overlap theory" is 10% of NN's volume of oil resource. 10% = $150m, so therefore the owner of 90% of the volume must be valued at $1.35bn....isn't it? Nope, the NN is today valued at $743m.
QED if any 88E shareholder is implacable in their contention that 88E is today worth £200m, then the NN is selling at the equivalent of 0.92p v's the closing price of 1.65p.
QED +1. 88E is either massively over-valued or the NN is massively under-valued. Your call?
Anyone reading this who *wouldn't* buy 88E shares at 0.92p tomorrow?
Imho it may well be that politics will end up being the denominating factor in "do we, don't we" go ahead and produce. Awareness is growing that fossile extraction will continue for quite some time, and recent suggestions of Biden's reign seeing an uplift of external purchase won't go down too well. It could well be a case for Congress that allowing construction of a delivery system through environmentally delicate areas would be "in the nation's interests", and imo I wouldn't be surprised if it was the case. The hard bit is estimating when they will smell the fresh coffee....
16:48 only a few weeks ago COP were still committed and confident they would ultimately get their way, with the USA plunging into an energy deficit perhaps the way the game will be played has also changed.
How long before the next election in the States (2024) could be all change yet again - life is full of surprises.
https://static.conocophillips.com/files/resources/fact-sheet-willow-october-2020-final.pdf
All depends on how serious and committed the ‘developer’ is regarding solving the emerging oil crisis, together with authorities, governments and green lobbyists. I remember the power cuts in the early 1970s. Pretty grim memories. We remain the explorer and 88e bod can do the maths (yes it’s plural). COP can do maths too. Can anyone else, who matters.
Simples.
GS
More up to date guide on Alaskan pricing. The tough operating environment is a multiplying factor on the costs per km.
https://www.gem.wiki/Alaska_LNG_Pipeline_(AKLNG)
Is the pipeline eastwards a viable option? Current judgement has got to be that it's not.
A bit dated, but maybe some use as a guide?
https://www.gem.wiki/Oil_and_Gas_Pipeline_Construction_Costs
15:29
I am unsure whether CP actually ever bid for Peregrine, do you have a Link?
As for Linc Energy I do not believe there is any pipeline, the company did drill & test Umiat 18 and 23H the latter flow tested before their over ambitions in many markets led to their downfall.
More at;
Umiat Oil Field Purchase
http://clients3.weblink.com.au/clients/_88energy/headline.aspx?headlineid=61015127
http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/abstracts/html/2009/arctic/abstracts/huckabay.htm
https://finfeed.com/small-caps/energy/88-energy-acquires-strategically-situated-umiat-oil-field/amp/
Well Data available at https://dggs.alaska.gov/gmc/seismic-well-data.php
https://www.petroleumnews.com/pdfarch/496392442.pdf
https://www.alaskajournal.com/business-and-finance/2015-01-07/linc-energy-wont-need-access-road-umiat-field-project
You mean this Umiat?
https://www.rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arctic/2017/08/21/arctic-alaska-oil-field-remains-alive-despite-bankruptcy-isolation/
At least we now have a definitive answer for the length of pipeline required for the eastwards solution - 92 miles. Now then, serious question.....how much is a 92 mile pipeline going to cost the owner of Umiat/Peregrine?
It may not be apples and apples but the estimated cost of constructing an 800 mile gas pipeline in Alaska was $38bn. So 92miles over virgin ground, on a caribou migration path, admittedly requiring a smaller diameter pipe.....how much time, money and legal challenges will that require before it's open for business? Anyone?
Perhaps this makes Umiat the missing piece of the jigsaw. I’m sure you’re aware that ConocoPhillips did actually try to acquire peregrine before 88 did!