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Thu 14:39
Blackadder2708 - *you* may very well be able to “think for yourself”. But in that case, you’re either coming up with a very odd conclusion to a mathematical calculation (well? are you? you don’t genuinely believe 88E ought to be valued at £200m, do you?) or you lack the values and sense of ethics which would see you try your hardest not to harm your fellow man.
Not from you the honest challenges to bulletin board/social media posts which, to an experienced eye, are nothing more than lies, obfuscations and a campaign to manipulate private investors by those who know exactly what they’re doing. No challenge directed either at the fantastical dreams from those who don’t have a nefarious intent but who, eg. keep repeating the “1.6bbo discovery at Merlin” and “Conoco’s gonna buy us out soon, especially now that we have no debt”. Complete gibberish and you know it.
Thu 13:16 (continued from post below , addressed to jefhobbit)
FWIW, I stand by my forecast figure for the northern neighbour’s OIP of 28bn barrels. When Prudhoe Bay was first discovered and delineated, it was assessed it had 10b barrels OIP of which 3bbo was recoverable. Fifty years later, the Prudhoe Bay OIP figure is 35bn barrels and 16bbo recoverable. The northern neighbour has announced an *initial* guidance figure of 16bn barrels OIP and 1.9bbo contingent resource…..but patience, jefhobbit. Let’s both diarise to reconvene on this precise subject when/if guidance is revised *after* the crest of the Basin Floor Fan is drilled updip at Theta West during the upcoming winter season. At no point did I ever put a date on my total OIP figure and not did I ever state “it was the next Prudhoe Bay”. I did, however, certainly relay that the northern neighbour’s management believed their acreage had a higher OIP then Kuparuk River and may even rival Prudhoe Bay in scale.” I stand by that sentence too.
Now that you’ve raised the subject of Oil in Place and EURs, why hasn’t 88E ever issued guidance on either number to its shareholders? Crickets………
Does no-one reading this exchange have even the faintest of stirrings of concern that something appears awry here????
Thu 13:16
Jefhobbit – you’re 100% correct. You can’t answer any questions about the NPV of 88E’s projects because the company hasn’t issued *any* guidance on that front. Why not? Either because they haven’t been able to collect sufficient data to make the required calculations or they *do* know the NPVs and have chosen not to share them with shareholders and the market. Accordingly, jefhobbit, I put it to you that it is incontrovertible that the neighbour to the north is, quite literally, years ahead of 88E in data collection, years ahead in delineating their acreage and, vitally, years ahead in understanding the “overlap theory” at the Central Blocks. Which is one reason why I was astonished at Dave Wall’s decision to include diagrammatical slides which gave the (false) impression the “overlap to the south”, *downdip* of Talitha-A, was larger south of the border v’s north of the border. This was, IMHO, a crucial error on DW’s part.
Ok, let’s move to a somewhat easier follow-on question. Let’s park the numerical NPV guidance for now. Jefhobbit – do you agree with the following statement? The current NPV assessment of 88E’s assets will, mathematically, be below that of its northern neighbour due to a variety of factors including, but not limited to:
a) assessed *scale* of projects is smaller for 88E. Analysts can be categorical about the respective volumetrics at time of writing because one company has invested $80m to build the largest 3D seismic dataset in the Alaska North Slope and the other hasn’t.
b) the geographical isolation of the majority of 88E’s assets will have a strongly negative effect on the NPV because any such calculation of future cashflows must take account of the capex (infrastructure) + opex required to produce the oil (if present) => lower margin per barrel, or lower netback figure => lower NPV per barrel in the ground.
c) The geological features present at Talitha and Theta West *appear* to have better reservoir characteristics, especially when it comes to the phase behaviour of the hydrocarbons.
d) 88E’s data collection is years behind that of its northern neighbour. Thus it is further behind in the CoS, which in turn affects hugely the NPV calculations.
Net, net, net and acknowledging the above facts, jefhobbit, you will agree that any reasonable and objective analyst using historically accepted E&P equity valuation methods, will assess 88E ought to be trading at a substantial discount to its northern neighbour far in excess of 50%. Or putting it another way, the northern neighbour ought to be valued and trading at a mid/high single digit multiple of 88E’s mkt cap. Fact.
Thu 12:51
rfarfa – to answer your question directly, it’s for shareholders, posters on social media who justify 88E’s *current* mkt cap and influencers who are urging people to buy 88E at the current SP to answer the question about the percentage valuation of the mkt cap they ascribe to each 88E project asset. The *company* does not set the mkt cap, the market does. You, the shareholders, those who comment on bulletin boards are all part of “the market”.
It is my direct contention the prolific posters on this bulletin board know fine well the mkt cap is running waaaaayyyyy ahead of the fundamentals and they chuckle to themselves when they read see some of the outlandish claims made on social media about “a discovery of 1.6bbo at Merlin” and “Conoco is about to launch a takeover bid at $1 per share (and all the way up to $10 per share)”. All the while, they’re encouraging a belief in the fundamentals of the asset; they’re encouraging a loyalty to the company which is *not* supported by traditionally-accepted market valuation techniques; and they’re taking advantage of that loyalty to trade the peaks and troughs of the SP. Shameful conduct.
13.16. JofHoggit, I guess it could be argued that if ‘Ed and Bob’ were wanting to be ‘rampy’ they would be quoting higher MEAN estimates opposed to BEST and they certainly wouldn’t be only mentioning primary recovery.
Also worth noting that last years NPV figures were reviewed by LKA and again didn’t include all the SMD reservoir. I guess one man’s conservative is another man’s rampy.
I should point out unlike you I wish all 88e holders the best of luck.
Not specifically Blackadder, as previously indicated I am not in drilling. Getting a tour of the drill rig on the Heather Alpha is where my drilling career started and stopped.
I would imagine you would require additional storage tanks etc and also the permitting requirements will be different as well. There must be a reason the company have specified ‘drilling and logging’ only opposed to drilling logging and flow testing as they had indicated for Merlin 2 and Charlie 1, appreciate in both cases neither were flow tested.
I think it stated that our cash in hand gives us leverage. Basically if we don’t like the deal we won’t take it. Needing to make a deal and wanting to make a deal are two different things.
Rabito
Could you specifically state the additional equipment required to do a flow test?
On top of the equipment a decent drilling outfit and wireline testing outfit would carry?
11.50 ChrisRev, last years drill cost ~$30M and 88e have on hand approximately $28.4M (~A$24M plus ~A$15M). Therefore if current funds are enough to cover the drill and working capital for 12 months the drill will need to be significantly cheaper than last years drill.
It may indeed be cheaper for the following reasons:
Last year there were delays (although no delays can’t be guaranteed this year)
No mention to date of mobilising flow test equipment (this will reduce the impact of the drill regards derisking)
Last year it’s likely in my opinion contractors were paid a premium to accept shares instead of cash.
14.39
;-)
Self righteous brothers
Scot and baron
Give us all a break PLEASE!!!
Let’s just have a few days off
We can think for ourselves HONESTLY!!!!
13.16
"I don't think we can answer that re NPV. I don't think the company have ever released figures of NPV. It is in my mind even more speculative than just OIP or EUR."
JofH, I think you've actually got it! Well done - it's taken a while, but you got there in the end.
Ddraig makes reference to a range of volumes, 100,200,300m barrels, he hasn't a clue either.
The issue is that nobody knows, except that, hereabouts, all people do is talk it up without the faintest idea what the value might be. The mcap is therefore nonsense as it is calculated by taking 14.4 billion multiples of the SP. The SP is based on sentiment and little else - as could be seen by the recent OTC phenomenon.
The mcap cannot bear any resemblance to recoverable OIG, as the latter is unknown.
The comparative NPV values between one explorer and another are equally difficult to ascertain, but one thing is certain. The closer you are to infrastructure to get it to market the greater will be the NPV than a neighbour many miles away from that infrastructure. Amongst other things the value will be netted off by the additional cost of constructing that additional infrastructure.
All quite simple and straightforward really.
The issue for me is that there are certain posters here who ramp the hell out of the share and trade on the SP, knowing full well that the fluctuation is based on pure sentiment and who effectively are duping their fellow shareholders and not only taking them for mugs but are trading on their ramping actions.
Anyone who only ever posts the positives and wilfully refuses to answer questions whose answers might be construed as negative is onesuch.
I don't think we can answer that re NPV. I don't think the company have ever released figures of NPV. It is in my mind even more speculative than just OIP or EUR. We'll leave that rampy BS to Ed and Bob.
You are a low life and are full of crap. Show me one link of Brom posting misleading info either ramping or deramping. I don't think you will be able to because he posts facts. Not like you 'next prudhoe bay, 28b OIP' boy
Scot126
Why don't you personally directly address your question to our Chief Executive Officer.Then you can have the pleasure of giving us the definitive answer you so desire!
Obviously that would stop boring the pants off most members of 88e Chat!
Scot126
Why don't you personally directly address your question to our Chief Executive Officer.Then you can have the pleasure of giving us the definitive answer you so desire!
Obviously that would stop boring the pants off most members of 88e Chat!
Rich coming from a "confrontation(al), insecure, Narcissistic, pretend (to) know it all"
12:21
You don't really wish that, jefhobbit, because you and many others associated with 88E have a sneaky feeling that the overlap theory (confirmed by your former and current MDs) with your northern neighbour at the Central Blocks is going to be the very best chance for generating some fundamental value for shareholders. Correct?
If I'm wrong, why not answer my question about the percentage of the current mkt cap you ascribe to each of the three main asset locations? Cat got your tongue? Or are you just angry that someone with the necessary experience is dismantling all the obfuscation and manipulation you and too many others continue to post here?
These questions are perfectly reasonable and you and everyone else on that list knows it. That none of you chooses to answer is a disgrace. Your collective silence is deafening .
JoH…yeah, what goes around comes around. But I’ve never seen anything like this…he’s just an embarrassment to all PIs…clearly did get enough love when he was a kid…and the same now, who could love such a confrontation, insecure, Narcissistic, pretend know it all…I would pity the woman/man
Cripes, forgot to add you to the list too, tonynordstrum1/PB. A thousand apologies, you must be feeling left out.
tonynordstrum1 - No reply, or rather a reply but no intention to answer the questions posed. Actually, tony/PB, now that you're here.....from your various articles, I know you don't like the whole financial modelling thing so we'll set the asset valuation thing aside for now. You do profess to know a bit about energy engineering so why don't you let this bulletin board know why it would be that an Alaskan explorer would invest such a large amount of shareholders' cash on a well which can only be reached via an ice road/snow roads in the Alaskan drilling season yet *even if the logs indicated further investigation* the company has no plans to flow test that well? Look forward to your response.
Answering your question directly, and for the umpteenth time. Two companies share an asset. Both BoDs admit this is the case. I research and analyse both companies. I am seeking an answer about the asset valuations in the portfolios of both companies. There appears to be a wide disparity between the way the market is valuing the asset(s) of one company compared to the assets of the other. I am approaching posters who profess to know pretty much all there is to know about 88E to assist me in that perfectly reasonable endeavour. It's called comparative analysis and it has been a feature of stockmarkets since they were created. If you or Brom or the management of 88E can provide the answer then I'll stop asking the question. Good stuff.
15.56 - agreed it’s a prudent move. If FO terms are not to our liking we have the option to keep the train moving alone and accept that risk over paying too much to off lay some of the risk. 88e know what date they have and their expectations, which I don’t but I would still like us to go it alone given we can operate effectively and $15-20m doesn’t seem like a lot of someone else gets the rights over 100, 200, 300m barrels of oil…at 56% CoS surely on balance we should look to keep 100% WI
I wish Scotty would FO. F right O in fact. He's terrified of 88e succeeding and PANR going tats up. I will dance a merry jig when that day comes. We used to get this type of carp from UKOG investors a few years ago. Look where they are now. 88 will keep plugging away proving up our leases and one day PANR will go the same way as UKOG. Once BG have their money back.
Scotty,
Brom? No reply.
Ddraig? No reply.
Jefhobbit? No reply.
FORD707? No reply.
Brian1234? No reply.
Reaper? No reply.
And on, and on........
I think there is a message there - for a know it all - you're a bit slow on the uptake ! What's your game here, if you dont like the investment case why not stick to the PANR board and give these poor people a rest.
Thanks Brom. You are the only one who actually answered my question.
10:49
I only asked one question of you.
09:27 olddad
Contemptible and classless.
And your question refers to which exact part of the 88E investment case?