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All very droll...;->
Whilst we await events, an exchange of links over on a d v f n that might amuse .
I sent this hxxps://iknnews.com/how-to-buy-mining-company-stocks-an-ikn-flowchart/
in response to this , much more academic article
Https://kuchling.com/the-lassonde-curve-a-wild-ride/
HTH
Actually, Glenda's SP is sitting around the 10 year average ... so I see no reason not to use treasury shares in an acquisition. To acquire ZIOC in an all equity 1:1 deal would hardly put a dent in their treasury shares. Glenda's poor SP performance of last few years could also be a delaying factor in doing deals using treasury shares. In effect, ZIOC would cost a around 40% of any deal done during covid's SP collapse vs today's SP, some saving for waiting 12 months, or enforced can-kicking of AT .... Not forgetting any upside in Glenda's SP plus a healthy dividend would come free too in the future.
aimo
extrader,
"GLEN has a lot of shares in Treasury..."
Yep, Glenda has 1,261,887,525 shares held in treasury, or around £3.9bn atm .... so I'm sure they wouldn't miss a few !!!
PS That's one 'ell of a war chest should it be needed.... and I'm sure it will !!
PPS The higher Glenda's SP the cheaper deals become .... atm, Glenda's SP is now sitting around the 5 year average and ~150% up from last years low, with an SP last seen in May 2019 ... so given that, Glenda'S BoD's may now look favorably upon an all equity deal.
aimo
And GLEN has a lot of shares in Treasury....(coincidentally @ £ 3.12 today, ie exactly 2x) which if they used to buy us out would also (partially) address the tag-along rights issue...
One can but dream...
I’ve always said… double IPO is where we need to be. Not too shabby.
Many thanks Extrader, much appreciated
Simandou is a bigger resource, I believe the ore quality is about the same (premium). There are a lot more constituent parts/shareholders in a 2 -camps project, they really need to get both working together to achieve economies of scale - esp , for the infrastructure :
- Simandou needs/wants a domestic export route , that means 600 KM difficult terrain ending at a shallow-water coastline, so they need a railway and a dredged out deepwater port. I understand that side of things will cost about $ 10 Bn.
Zanaga has a 'tidier' shareholding structure and a more or less straight line 'downhill' run of under 300Km that apparently would allow transport as slurry to a coastline that shelves fairly deeply, fairly quickly. There's no port facilities in place atm, but there IS a port (and a plan for a new port, with various other exporters (4-5) that might help with economies of scale).
There's also been the famous offshore floating port, that Yantai Group has supposedly been eyeing up. Yantai is linked to the Simandou port.
Guinea and C-B are probably equally corrupt. Guinea is entitled to a higher 'free carry' share of the project (15% ?) than C-B (10%).
On the face of it, Zanaga is a more digestible proposition....but I would say that, wouldn't I ? ;->
E & OE (from memory).
So Extrader is there any comparison with Simandou to Zanaga price wise? Thanks
The IPO shares were placed at £ 1.56.
In case anyone thinks that the Directors are 'anchored' to that in some way (other than 'optical' - doing right by the shareholders) - it's worth remembering that the Directors placed the same no of shares at IPO, raising IIRC abt £ 30m - so will have got their 'seed capital' back.
Apart from opportunity cost, they're likely pretty much on a free ride, so 'anything' is a 'Brucie bonus'.
GLEN's institutional memory (Peter Freyburg, ex Xstrata) will be well aware of that.
IMO
There has been little comment on LSE regarding the contents of yesterdays RNS cost update (beyond some who say that we know nothing new). However, for Glencore to get the best sale price for the project they will need up to date cost figures. For example, the capital costs would be expected to be much higher today than in 2014 (e.g. Steel prices are up over 50% in the interim). If the new estimate(s) of the capital costs had been (say) 50% higher we would not have been surprised. The review suggests that some cost elements are higher and others are lower (previously overestimated) but overall cost estimates are nearly the same. My conclusion is the revised 12Mtpa cost estimate alone could add a US$ Billion to the asking price.
Additionally, this RNS includes an update on the Ore Reserve. The numbers have not changed, but it is interesting that they have been checked.
I would say at least £3, wasn't the IPO price around there? I doubt the Directors would be happy with a £1. Simandou went for £10 and look at the work to get that producing
At £1 I could buy a house in Lytham St Annes.
That’s my dream.
But at £10 I could buy a house each for my 3 kids, take the Orient Express to catch a world cruise boat and have enough left over fir the rest of my life.
Now that’s a dream outcome.
POPPLES I have the same as a dream scenario and would also be a fair price, but dont want to speculate too much in a potential selling price as there are so many aspects and parts to take into account. just saying even at an extreme low sales price, we will all make decent money vs today, ie x15 vs SP you can buy now
X10 on your price for the value of such a resource IMHO.
£1 would be nice if that’s all we were to get, but can’t see Glen agreeing to that.
NewKOTB. I agree on that. I do think everyone needs to understand that in case any discussions are taking place, which we have no clue about, these processes takes time, and the negotiations or trying to luck any kind of agreement is a huge work also with states included. it can take a while in my view, but for me the feeling is there might be a wish from all stakeholders to get this moving somehow or the other. Yes it is a risk investment. I hold though an average of 6.2, so are ok comfortable with that entry. As you say even at 1 GBP, this will become good money for all of us, and the price for our share would be only 300 M GBP, so really peanuts taking the resource into account
Nibj,
"nothing has changed from 1 week ago...." agree
Close to £500,000 invested as of pre RNS's this week, some conviction gamble / investment that is for sure ..... ZIOC has always been red or black imo .... I hold significantly less, even though, buyout at ~100p would be a great result for all including me .
PI's had been shouting for the progress RNS, now it's here ( containing what was expected imo) .... plebs are not so happy anymore .... ! Give it a few weeks and all will look very different once more through the 'Telescope of Hope' as we again gaze to the future with glee and anticipation.
atb & aimo
My take is, nothing has changed from 1 week ago in negative direction. maybe investors was hoping for more concrete news and are disappointed. There can be so many reason to speculate why no more info in the RNS. None of us knows, but can guess it is either because no action is happening or it is because they are under strict NDA etc.
In my view either you think nothing will ever happen and you should sell out, or you believe due to Macro economics and global trade, something will happen and you sit it out. I have decided to sit it out and hold a large amount of 5m shares. Maybe it will show to be a bad decision, but I do not care so much about the +/- 20% in shareprice driven by orders of 1000-5000 shares. For me it is the long term objective. If I was convinced zanaga would never get off the ground I would selloff and leave the forum for ZIOC to invest my money elsewhere. But I am willing to take the risk and sit this one our even if it takes longer than we all hope
Gee thanks Sooty, you too, unless you have left of course!
Oh I have a wonderful imagination Sooty, I have written a book but not a spy novel in any way. I haven't fallen into any trap but doesn't everyone who invests on AIM to some degree. A lottery win it shall be and I am prepared to wait to see if it comes up. You have done what you feel is right and I have done the same.
If we are nearly there on a deal what could AT actually tell us. It's more than he dare do. Even a hint of a change in his voice could give it away, I think we are closer than we think. aim
Hi Sooty,
No.....but the RNS's came out the day after I posted that I'd call the Nomad !
(No,, correlation is not causation, btw)
;->
Worth remembering the terms of the Shard facility, where this last tranche is at ZIOC's discretion, as Elphick emphasized :
.."a financing structure has been put in place which will give the Company access to funding through a relatively low cost structure which minimises dilution to shareholders..."
Avoiding unnecessary dilution has been a hallmark : ZIOC only has about 10% more shares now than at IPO a decade ago, probably unique on AIM. Why ? Because Elphick and pals have 'skin in the game'.
I think the staggered terms of the Shard facility 6/20, coupled with the intro of management incentive scheme 8/19 and COIDIC 12/19 point to their hope/expectation that a deal was around the corner....or at least, a reasonable prospect ....and that they hoped not to need 3rd drawdown.
ZIOC, it seems to me, are doing what they can to protect their (as shareholder) interests, whilst waiting for 'events, dear boy, events' (copyright : Harold Macmillan) to unfold.
IMO
Thanks Marcus. Relationships seem to be breaking down between Australia and China although iron ore still being exported, I do wonder if this could be an indication of China going it alone, I can't see them paying these prices for too much longer with a mine sitting waiting to be taken. All imo
no problem Lynthip
Just to clarify timelines this was an email discussion had on 12th March 2021
Thanks for posting Marcus