George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
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I've been a consultant at the same company for 9 years. Why? because I get my work done on time!
Consistently late, sure you do....
being told that we are late because we have found a huge gold laden porphyry seems a somewhat more acceptable excuse than, sorry this licence is a bust and warrants no further investment .
>> Would you accept a consistently late deliverable from someone working for you? - I assume you'd fire them pretty sharpish.
Actually, I do that all the time. Most developers are terrible at estimating how long something takes - they are always massively optimistic, so I automatically compensate for it when I get their estimates. Otherwise I would be firing otherwise excellent developers based on a single aspect of their work that I never rely on anyway :)
You can constantly complain about something that is never going to change, or you can simply take account of it when making decisions.
Gixxer,
If I remember correctly you have a large number of shares and consequently you are very heavily geared and consequently very sensitive to any fall in the sp. I can understand that but as has already been said, I think the delay here is due to good reasons not bad. I think CB said that we don't want to sell and then find in a year or two that AA inherit a huge resourse that has not been reflected in the sale price.
Stuff is happening and it needs extra time to come to fruition. Ascot, Footrot and potentially other assets could make us a fortune but for just a touch of luck.
Deep breath ... and think of England.... -:)
Really? - You accept that a person in a supposedly professional position should be given a break due to his personality?
So the person you've paid to build you a new house gives you a deadline and then misses it time and time again. That's fine though cause he's a bit old but seems to be a nice chap and your sure he will get it done eventually....
Would you accept a consistently late deliverable from someone working for you? - I assume you'd fire them pretty sharpish.
>> Why should we have to apply a factor to a person who is in a professional position but is not acting in a professional manner...Especially when that factor can be anywhere from 2 months to 5 years!]
Newsflash - the world isn't fair, the stock marker is actively against you and at some point, you have to accept people for who they are - not who you would like them to be.
You have a simple choice. A) Avoid XTR because the CEO is bad at setting dates, or B) invest in XTR because its a great investment despite the CEO being bad at setting dates.
However, choosing B) with the knowledge that the CEO is bad at setting dates and then complaining for years that the CEO is bad at setting dates seems like a good way to cause yourself frustration.
All I am saying is we all KNOW that CB is terrible at setting target dates. He almost always misses the dates he sets because he is too optimistic. - Is that really the point though? - Why should we have to apply a factor to a person who is in a professional position but is not acting in a professional manner...Especially when that factor can be anywhere from 2 months to 5 years!
>> "They aren't actually deadlines in any real sense - nothing is hanging on a specific date." Steve, perhaps not for the company or you but that is not necessarily true for all investors. Some of us have other commitments, investments and opportunities...
I am plainly not making my point very well :)
I realise everyone has their own timeframes. All I am saying is we all KNOW that CB is terrible at setting target dates. He almost always misses the dates he sets because he is too optimistic. He is 78ish so he is not going to change. So why does everyone assume that this time it is different. Its like Lucy moving the football when Charlie Brown tries to kick it. Why get frustrated about missing a date when you knew up front it was almost certain to be wrong.
All I am saying is just ignore the dates that CB provides. Do your own research, use RNS to track actual progress and make your own estimates on timeframes. Then you can make decisions on your other 'commitments, investments and opportunities' without relying on an arbitrary date that you KNOW is probably wrong.
Steve, I was heavily underwater for many years so it was either sell, at a loss, or hang on.
I had actually been reducing my exposure here and will continue to do so if/when the sp moves back upwards...
@Gixxer-600
Please don't take this the wrong way, but if you have such a bad view of the CEO, why have you stayed here so long? It seems you have a generally pessimistic view of the company. I'm not accusing you of de-ramping because I know you are invested and I know you are genuinely frustrated. However, presenting a consistently negative view of the company and the CEO to current or potential shareholders is not going to help your investment. There are many good reasons to be invested in XTR, despite CB's continual missing of his own target dates, but the latter is what you seem to focus on.
"They aren't actually deadlines in any real sense - nothing is hanging on a specific date." Steve, perhaps not for the company or you but that is not necessarily true for all investors. Some of us have other commitments, investments and opportunities and make where, when and how much investment decisions based on anticipated timelines. It more than frustrating that deadlines are being missed and promised news not delivered.
Let's see if your tone changes a few years down the line Steve.
Bird's methodology has not changed at all in all the time I've been invested here, it's not just about forgetting past events. It's always been 'Shareholder value is just around the corner, trust me'. A 'This time next year Rodney attitude'.
All his past purchases were going to make it for us, all were going to be online in a timely manner and yet none, Alluvial aside, have made us money to date.
I've been here only about 18 months, so I can only judge on that period. There have been two raises, quite early in that period, both of which seemed to have been used effectively. CB said in the June 28th statement last year that there would be no raises for 12 months and he has kept his word on that.
I am happy in general with progress on both BR and Manica during my time at XTR, although I would like to know more about what is happening at Eureka. Things may have gone better, but they could have also gone considerably worse. Overall, the good news has far outweighed the bad. Its hard to see much of a downside here over the longer-term and the financial situation suggests no further raises, so I am quite happy to give CB whatever times he needs until the situation with BR is resolved.
At some point, you have to look on events from years ago as water under the bridge, or they will forever taint your view of any positive events. CB is just terrible at giving time estimates. You have to accept/ignore that or it will just be an endless source of frustration in what otherwise seems to be a good investment.
'I know it is frustrating when we miss "deadlines", but those are really just arbitrary dates given by CB in his usual over-optimistic way.' - It's frustrating to me Steve as he's been doing it for 8 years with 10's of millions raised and massive dilution to LTH's.
As I've mentioned some projects are years and years behind schedule, for sure I can see that happening here to.
The only upside now is that, finally, Manica is ramping up so he will, hopefully, dilute us less!
2nd December 2020: Drilling approvals were gained
"The Board of Xtract Resources Plc ("Xtract" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that it has received all required governmental approvals in order to proceed with its maiden, Phase One, drilling programme on the Bushranger copper-gold exploration project"
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/bushranger-project-phase-one-drill-programme-5cmaszh1nh2mxug.html
16th December 2020: Commencement of Drilling
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/bushranger-commencement-of-drilling-98veayivcjvrvy0.html
TBH a few months either way isn't that important anyway. They have a done a huge amount of drilling in the last 18 months - 51 holes that we know of with an estimated 40km drilled, plus whatever has happening since the last update.
I know it is frustrating when we miss "deadlines", but those are really just arbitrary dates given by CB in his usual over-optimistic way. They aren't actually deadlines in any real sense - nothing is hanging on a specific date. We all know that CB is consistently under-estimating timeframes, yet someone we still get frustrated at something we pretty much already knew was going to happen.
If you just ignore CB's timeframes and look at actual progress, XTR have achieved a huge amount at BR in a relatively short time.
Now you've got me looking through old RNS's - Way back in 2019 Kalengwa should have kicked off.....
Colin Bird, Executive Chairman said: "I am pleased to have completed this processing arrangement which makes immediately available to us, relatively high-grade dump material for processing. We will also commence exploration operations to identify the possible extensions of the open pit ore both on strike and depth.
On signing the agreement, we will recommence operations and advance to the initial operation. The initial operation will be upgraded to a mechanised sophisticated ore sorting system. During this initial phase, the Company will explore for extensions of the open pit both North and South. The results from the exploration will determine the size and operating requirements of a larger operation. We will also assess the possibility of dewatering the former open pit with a view to access the high-grade ore left at the bottom.
I read his, not being late comment as a positive, suggesting rather than being late through delays or inept managing. It was through a decision to extend with s good chance to increase overall value potential at Ascot due to the significance of the gold.
The assays speak for themselves, I certainly disagree that they are just trying to make up any shortfall at RC
But XTR were moving forward from 1st June way before that RNS Steve - Drilling plan was already, allegedly, complete by August 13.
· Initial planning for drilling program completed and permitting process under way
Comms, not ‘comma’
That was the conditional sale agreement on June 1st. The purchase was completed on 27th October 2020
"The Board of Xtract Resources Plc ("Xtract" or the "Company") is pleased announce that it has now received all necessary approvals and has satisfied all conditions precedent for the acquisition of the Bushranger copper-gold exploration project"
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/completion-of-acquisition-of-bushranger-project-bj1w5xoch7sxr94.html
I share the frustration about lack of comma, given the expectation built around the May / June date. But the way I look at it is this. ( My, unscientific assessments, based on my interpretations of the RNSs). At worst, even if we fall short of 2Mt, we must have in the region of 1.5Mt at Racecourse alone. So even if AA don’t want it, someone will - it’s location, close to power and transport, in a friendly mining country, means that it is very improbable it won’t sell. So, at very worst, say 10p a share. Then let’s consider the potential upside from this. Say a 50% probability of RC alone getting to 2Mt. Then we have Ascot. Say a 50% probability of 1Mt Cu equiv, and maybe a 30% probability of Ascot making 2Mt+. Then Footrot - 5% probability of 1Mt? And who knows if we touch on some other porphyries - there was a drill earlier in ph 2 ( I forget which) that appeared to intersect another porphyry at depth - to the east. Then with the Fairbride revenue, we have good funds coming in - little chance of dilution. So all in all, I see a real probability of the share price at least doubling in the next few months, with the possibility of an even greater upside. This has got to be one of the safest bets on AIM at the moment. So, I’m sticking around, and not selling a single share, until Colin takes us to the end game. Would I prefer this to be in the next couple of months? Of course I would - but if this takes to end ‘22, early ‘23, it will still have been worth waiting for.
'To be fair, we are a while off two years here.' - Deal was done ~25months ago Steve.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/bushranger-copper-gold-project-australia-o7u71uhdwbdy9b9.html
>> Kalumbila was sold off sharpish in less than 2 years with minimal drilling. His plan was the same here IMO but it hasn't worked out as he expected...
To be fair, we are a while off two years here. The Bushranger sale was completed about 20 months ago and drilling started 18 months ago. We've also drilled about 40,000m ish, which is huge for a small company like XTR in such a short time. A lot faster than GGP did their drilling at Haverion for example.
Steve - What you suggest sounds suspiciously like a strategy. Don't be ridiculous! ;)