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I would be very surprised if Eureka or Manica are making significant money before Q3 2021.
I agree that the SP is likely to increase leading up to profitable production, but it is also just as likely to crash with the inevitable setbacks along the way - hence my comment about buying .opportunities.
If you consider a rerate to be increasing from 1.5p to 2.5p then I agree, that could happen within 4 or 5 months.
I fully agree that the SP will eventually be 6p+, but think that 6p as a support level is unlikely in the next 12 months - unless of course CB gets his act together and lives up to his predictions but, as you have said on many an occasion, that is not very likely.
I hope I am wrong, but somehow I doubt it...
Hello CE
I'm not saying there wont be a rerate until Mid 2021.
Even if the mine is not in production by mid 2021, it will surely be well under construction and when that is confirmed (construction started not completion) I think we will start to see the SP gradually move higher, and continue to move up, as the end date becomes nearer. In addition, we should see income from Eureka and free milling Gold by late this year / early - next year - Ok that's according to CB. So even if we add on the 'CB delay factor', to those time scales they should happen sometime in Q1 latest?
With additional income in Q1 (Eureka + free milling) + mine construction started in Q1, I would think that will initiate SP move higher and probably in a continued upward direction as the mine construction continues and progress reports are given.
The first pour / mine completion should initiate a spike in the SP but I would think, just before that is confirmed, the SP would be between 3p to 4p for the reasons I've already given. Probably another 50% increase in sp after mine completed / first pour.
So I would hope and indeed expect the sp to be much higher well before Mid 2021 as we get income from Eureka / free milling Gold and mine is being built.
I think that's more realistic rather than optimistic imho. But I could be wrong :)
AIMHO
Hello News,
I have no doubt that the Bushrangers deposits have the potential to be proven up, using a series of drills over period of time - an eventual selling price could even be in the tens of millions - but if we have to wait for that to give us a re-rate then we could be waiting until 2022?
Manica is the best chance of a short term sustained increase in share price - most agree on that point ( even CB), but what is up for debate is the meaning of 'short term' - how long is a short ball of string?
Andrew & CaveatEmptor
Firstly, I put in the words "operative word" eg potential. Colin Bird did not say it. The reason is to make sure that prior to drilling, it is potential until it is proven by the drill result/s. That is just to cover in case there are newbies.
As for Xtract Resources, Bushrangers [Racecourse] in New South Wales, Australia is NOT a "greenfield project" as pointed out by Colin Bird in his interview today, Wed 28 Oct 2020 with ShareTalk. Mr Bird also re-iterated that the resource is open-ended and gold increasing at depth etc today.
There are many co*s on AIM that have NOT seen even 1 drill hole and already past the £7m mkt cap a while back. I cannot mention the names as one is not allowed to mention other co*s on this XTR forum but suffice to say, they are AIM co*s with Australian licences.
As mentioned in the XTR Apr 2020 presentation on Bushrangers & Align Research, co* go for A$15-20m on the Australian exchange for the hot Lachlan Fold, NSW, Australia acreage etc.
At 71Mt of coper-gold, the Directors believe that Bushrangers is one of the "LARGEST" undeveloped deposits in the Lachland Fold Belt. As I pointed out, it in the FAIRWAY of the Lachland Fold zone with North Parkes, then Newcrest*s Cadia-Ridgeway [40Moz gold] and then Bushrangers.
So, the 71Mt JORC is an asset and as Mr Bird said, that if not for COVID-19, XTR would not have got the project.
I am here for the Bushranger project and I am hoping that the new director from the vendor co, ex-BHP Africa & Australia would be an asset to the project.
I was not invested in Colin Bird*s previous co which he sold to First Quantum which had a 1Bt discovery so I am not familiar with their geo data etc.
Certainly, Mr Bird has said today, they aim to DRILL LONG HOLES at Bushrangers and which he has said on 1 & 18 Oct 2020, it will be like the ole days of Solgold, in that they too drilled long holes. Of interest, is that Alkane*s BODA etc have intersection of 502m etc but at very much lower grades as akin to the other major discoveries in the Lachlan Fold.
As for the other assets, its a plus as and when they materialise.
Should read if it relies solely on Manica
Hello Andrew,
I am beginning to think that even mid 2021 is being a bit optimistic for a rerate. Particularly it it relies solely on Manica.
The rainy season will last for the next 3 or 4 months and little is likely to happen during that period. Whatever the reasons ( Covid?) a window of opportunity has been lost and recovery may not come until Q3 2021 IMO.
On the up side, I am just as optimistic as ever that the rerate will happen and I now think that I will probably get some good buying opportunities between now and then...
News
The most important part of your post, imo, was the last part when you wrote...
"Operative word: "Could" = Potential."
I think the market here is long past reacting to “great potential” or any of CB’s bullish commentaries on how good the future is going to be. CB now needs to “show us the money” before the market starts to price in true value here imo.
For what it’s worth, I think he will (show us the money) and income will substantially increase but I doubt it will be when CB says and, probably, not by the amount he implied. But a rerate nevertheless.
I would be very surprised if the SP wasn’t substantially higher by mid 2021.
AIMHO
news, with ref to your statement: 'I tried listening 3 times and not sure if it was $1m or $1 billion? It was not possible for $1m co as XTR is currently already £7m.' I believe CB was referring to monthly income. Manica HR+ Eureka should bring in $1e6pm
Click Reply and one can my last Thur post @21:17
In summary, BKM had some 51.5Mt of 0.6% cu copper & 0.5% cu. It was sold for US$163m for a total of 400,000 JORC Copper. Then, it will be IPO*ed on the Indo Stock Exchange at US$500m { recent M & A Industry news].
BUSHRANGER, AUSTRALIA
JORC 71 Mt @0.44% cu copper & 0.06g/t au gold.
Ref: Colin Bird: "Inferred resource of over 350,000 tonnes of contained copper."-XTR RNS 1 June 2020.
Supposition:
Answer to Question: If Bushrangers hits 400 Mt, Anglo-American has a buy-in option and the price will be via a independent valuation.
400Mt will be 5.6TIMES more than 71Mt [400 divide by 71=5.7x] &
350,000 tonnes of contained copper x 5.6 times = 1.96 Million tonnes of contained copper?
So, simple maths: If 400,000 tonnes of contained copper sold for US$163 million, then how much will 1.96 Million tonnes of contained copper fetch per the above M & A?
Answer is 4.9x [1.96mt divide by 400k] = US$798.7 Million!!
Kindly check.
From the Colin Bird, Chairman of XTR interview with Sharetalk on 18 Oct 2020, Zak Mir said that co*s are now going 10x. So what about XTR sort of thing. Mr Bird did not answer there and then to the point but later he said in X-Y years, $1 Million co. I tried listening 3 times and not sure if it was $1m or $1 billion? It was not possible for $1m co as XTR is currently already £7m.
To get to $1 billion, it would need a MAJOR discovery and many with major discoveries like Alpala deposit and Havieron have indeed achieved what is known in the industry as a $1 billion rating for Tier 1 deposits.
Hence, Colin Bird said in his interview: "We could have a major discovery on our hands."
[Re: Bushrangers]
Operative word: "Could" = Potential.
Zak says he expects companies like Xtract to change a £10M MC into a Billion...Think he may be being bit optimistic there!
This is asiamet
Bushranger, Australia [Xtract Resources 100%]
JORC 71 Million Tonnes @0.44% cu copper & 0.06 g/t gold.
---
From the latest 1 & 18 Oct 2020, Colin Bird said he wants to drill to 800m depth approximately.
Hence, why he mentioned Solgold, good ole days per interview because that was the kind of depth they drilled to.
Tried to see if there was any deal book on copper at the 71 Mt level.
Found that "B K M copper deposit in Indonesia" was sold for US$163 million [aggregate deal] with US$40m in cash when it is IPO*ed in 2021.
"At the end of 2019, BKM boased an ore reserve of 21.1 Million Tonnes grading 0.6% cu copper in the proven category and 30.4 Million Tonnes grading 0.5% cu copper in the probable category. Mineral Resource Statement at least 4 0 0, 0 0 0 JORC copper. The IPO will seal an equity value of US$500m."
--
My Comment:
Not bad as Racecourse, Bushranger, New South Wales increased from 21 Mt to 71Mt. With the other gold and copper bringing in a possible US$750,000 a month per Colin Bird [18 Oct 2021 Interview below, it is potentially US$9 million a year or £6.9 Million in revenue [1.3 FX]? Mkt Cap £7m @1.4p.
Kindly check and DYOR. I cant mention the name of the co but one can check BKM copper, Indonesia dated 8 Oct 2020 as industry news.
Xtract Resources, Colin Bird Interview, 1 Oct 2020.
"Expecting to drill porphyry.
Long Intersection, Get the sort of results, good ole days Solgold.
Gold value increase with depth
70Mt copper-gold there."
https://twitter.com/Share_Talk/status/1311623139097485313
--
XTR Half Year Report, 30 Sep 2020:
"Racecourse, Bushrangers, New South Wales, Australia JORC 71Mt 0.44% cu copper/0.064g/t au.
Believed to be the L a r g e s t Currently Undeveloped Lachlan Fold Belt, Oz.
Remains O p e n for expansion down plunge and along S t r i k e.
10 K i l o m e t r e S t r i k e.
Interest from Alkane*s BODA , Lachlan Fold 1,167m @ 0.25% cu copper /0.55g/t au gold."
---
Today*s News From Lachland Fold, N.S.W, Oz
"MinRex to invest in projects in Lachland Fold."-The Market Herald.com.au, 22 Oct 2020
To read, put this title into the search engine.
"Investor interest increased since Alkane*s significant copper gold porphyry mineralisation at BODA.
USGS: 4-10 porphyry remain to be found.
Newmont & Fortescue purchasing land in the area."
Ref: Colin Bird, CEO, XTR Interview with ShareTalk, 18 Oct 2020
https://twitter.com/Share_Talk/status/1317812740321288192
[Mr Bird talks of $750k a month to come. Also about Bushrangers soon to be drilled in Oz - open at depth & at strike.]
Lachlan Fold, NSW is also near [in the belt] Newcrest*s Cadir [40Moz gold], North Parkes & Alkane*s BODA.
=
Align Research on XTR
www.alignresearch.co.uk/cpt-company/xtract-resources/
"Blue sky projects include Bushrangers in the hot Lachland Fold Belt. JORC of 350,000t o;f contained copper quite a coup. ASX listed explorers with interests here have recently seen big re-rates."
"On course for £12.5m share of annual mining profit s within 12 months. Big dis-connect in the share price as our valuation show 480% upside."
CLICK the bottom full note.
DYOR. Xtract Resources, £7m mkt cap @1.4p
News, Thur 22 Oct 2020