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I'd agree on that..Nov /Dec if Manica income streams don't come on line. Hopefully it works out
CB said yesterday that he is confident that the alluvial income will bridge the gap until HR income comes on stream.
I believe that is has also been reported that CB said, last month, that there is no need for a placing for the foreseeable future - which must mean, at least, for the remainder of this year.
I don't suppose TW likes being BS ed to..which basically CB did a few months back on timings to the income projects in Manica. If we can't start the income flows before year's end the company has gone from verging on 5p plus a share, if the HR mining hadn't been delayed for months from previous statements and being a flourishing gold miner, to company placing shares to fund the copper projects bird has purchased ,I hope he hasn't dug a hole to big to get free of.
Many thanks, both, for your updates.
Very much as I expected, as you will have realised from my questions.
Whilst potential remains high here, looks like we will have to wait quite a bit longer for it to be realised...
Back to those tricky knots...
Bullet Points (IMO)
CB saying Hard rock mining starting by Xmas is his best case estimate. That's looking very unlikely though as he's talking about 5 months production from August (at best) or September. Subject to borders opening. So Mid Q1 now looks likely.
He didnt seem very optimistic that the Second alluvial contract and Free Milling contract were imminent. I'm not saying we wont get an RNS on Monday confirming agreements, but he has moved from saying 'dotting the i's and crossing the Ts' to I'm working on it. So I see no reason to change my Q4 prediction on these contracts.
Salient answers by CB (IMO) below: Others will have different opinions.
CB. Back to the corona virus that is the dictator. Big items of equipment are locked down in South African factories. We will also need a large tower crane. We can start the tailings dam preparation and excavation for civils. This is ongoing. In essence, 5 month from end of lockdown should see us in production.
CB. I think that South Africa reduced lock down measures a bit prematurely. People in SA are blaming the extremely cold weather which is typical for this time of the year. We are hoping that by September borders will be open for goods if not people. At Manica we can do civils and a lot of preparatory work prior to delivery of the equipment.
CB. which border is that because the traffic seems to be one way, cathodes from Zambia and certain other metals from adjoining borders. Our understanding is that queues are horrendous and trucks are being turned around. Key question is the driver he has to be quarantined after arrival in host country
all very murky and difficult
QUESTION. Colin, apologies if I am misinterpreting you but you seem much less optimistic on getting a contractor with free milling capability than previous podcasts?
CB ANSWER I am in the process and it would be most unfair to shareholders to express optimism until a deal is concluded. As I said I am busily working on it.
Finally, if CB wasnt a mining executive, he could have been a politician or defence lawyer. He would have excelled.
Not great answers to your questions CE, the interaction is via txt not video so it's proving to be a pain. I'll provide a better update when I get more time. He mentions the two deals in his interview with TW - Seems to be much less positive on these now and is not providing dates .For now:
G "Please provide an update on the two contracts which should have been awarded by the end of June to give short term income whilst awaiting full scale HR production from Fair Bride?"
Please explain why deliverables are constantly missed, do you not feel this has a large impact on sentiment?
CB - Hello Jimmy, agree non-delivery has a large impact on sentiment but to identify, make an agreement and for the company to procure the necessary equipment to meet the contractual terms takes time, especially if that equipment is coming from China. You cannot do it in two month but the pressure is on to do it.
CB - The second alluvial contract will be modest with expectations of between 1-2kg at very little cost to us. If we complete negotiations with a hard rock operator with free milling capability then that contribution could be between 4-6 kg per month again with little cost
G - Are we still on schedule to have significantly increased income by the end of September - and, if not, what is a realistic revised schedule
CB - Hello Jimmy, I expect income to increase month on month but the key driver will be a contract for the free milling gold
For those interested Bird will be taking shareholder questions between 10am to 11am - Winnifrith has posted he has given all CEO's a grilling via a pre recorded interview, I would suggest this will be very interesting to listen to as Winnifrith bought in and previously be-rated Bird for continually pursuing new projects when he believed the focus should be on Manica.
Since then Bird has added another new project. I have a couple of direct no holds barred questions which I am sure will hit the spot, as we all know Bird is as thick skinned as one could get so no doubt he will bat them away with ease.
The reason why I keep saying CB doesn’t meet his timescales is because many seem to forget this and take the view that….
“ just because he has missed the last 20 dates / targets it doesn’t mean he’s going to miss the 21st”. I guess we all like to believe what we want to believe.
My supporting evidence that he wont meet his latest timescales is the previous 20 missed deadlines. Others’ supporting evidence that he will, is that CB said he will.
About 2 years ago, and for quick ease of reference, I started to compile a spreadsheet with the condensed and salient points of what CB had said at meetings / pod casts. Looking back at my notes, and at his timescales, it really highlights the number of missed deadlines and failed targets. What is noticeable is how an expired deadline is replaced by a new one, again and again. It’s as if the previous forward guidance didn’t happen (no reason or mention of the delay) and the latest is the first time he’s ever given timings on that subject.
Looking at the lag factor I’d say add 6 months on to his original timescale and you will be nearer to fact than sticking by his original timescale. Of course, you shouldn’t have to do this but it may help to avoid disappointment and frustration if you do.
For balance, I do expect the mine to be built (and other income to come on stream) which means substantial increase in income which means a substantial increase in SP. I just hope my Q1 HR income prediction wont start looking very optimistic over the next few months.
One does really wonder what goes on in Birds Brain - over 2 months ago he informed TW that a deal with regarding to the alluvial's was very close to being struck. Following a call with CE a month, or so later, it was days away. Is he living in a region with some sort of time dilation compared to the rest of the planet?!
Can anyone name one instance where he's met, or even come close, to hitting a target? - I may try and find an average of the delta between his predicted deliverable and actual occurrence, it may be possible to calculate a 'Bird factor' we can add on to his BS deliverable dates!
To clarify
The first alluvial contract (by river bed) will now continue and not stop by end of the year as previously stated. Probably change in contractor's decision is due to POG. And new additional second alluvial contract for terraces and free Gold mining will start in Q4 (supposedly sooner but my guess is Q4).
Therefore we should keep getting income from first river bed alluvial contract and not have to rely on any other new and additional income source
Lucky
My understanding is that the alluvials will now continue after this year, hence the second alluvial contract is being worked on. Unless I'm mistaken?
As I've said before , I never thought HR income would come this year, but I dont see why we wont get Free Gold income and second alluvial contract starting by Q4. So we should get income before HR starts and before the end of the year....I think.
So far only a very small part of Alluvial has been targeted, along the river.
I agree we need some action on some other parts, with gold price much higher then it can be more productive, the terraces in particular, where larger nuggets can be found.
I think it's important we get news on the extra revenue as the alluvials where due to run out later this year and be replaced with hard rock. Unfortunately the hard rock is now delayed and the alluvials may not overlap the hard rock. This is a big concern for me at the moment. Unless we get extra revenue that's been talked about we may have a period of no revenue.
Many thanks Gixxer. I look forward to hearing the answers.
I know what you mean - a tough job, but somebody has to endure it, oo-errr, Matron!
'Tied up' over the weekend! - Lucky you CE :P
I've signed up CE, will put your questions forward if possible.
I'm tied up over the weekend so won't be available for the event. However, if anybody here does get a chance to pose some questions, the first on my list would be "What has happened to the two contracts that were supposed to have been awarded by the end of June to give short term income whilst awaiting full scale HR production from Fair Bride?"
My second question would be " Are we still on schedule to have significantly increased income by the end of September - and, if not, what is a realistic revised schedule"
Direct answers to these questions, if positive, would go a long way towards restoring some confidence and optimism here and, if negative, we will at least know where we stand...
Unless, of course, the question is answered via RNS before then...
significant issue should have been significant event
TW now holding is a significant issue. Not because TW is a great stock picker, but because CB will not have wanted the bad publicity and coverage that he will surely get if he wasnt going to deliver. Its one thing ignoring the rants of a few BB members but CB wont want TW doing a number on him with wide circulation.
I would think CB and TW , hmm 'had a conversation' before TW invested, and TW may know what's coming around the corner. If I was CB, I would not want TW anywhere near this share if I thought it was all going to go wrong.
All of course IMHO
My guess is that after Saturdays conference the share price will start to pick up. Winnifrith has skin in the game and I doubt very much that Bird will be appearing to talk the Company down. The share price should be higher than it is, as it simply hasnt responded in any way shape or form to the increase in metal prices. The Aussie deal is another good prospect for the future.
I have registered to gain access to the $hareprophets event on Saturday, as mentioned Bird will be presenting for Xtract and will again be getting interviewed by Winnifrith, this time, unlike the last event, it will be possible to ask questions to Bird however I am not sure if I will be around to do this - if anyone wants to pose any questions the event only costs £2.99 for access.
If anyone prefers to post questions here I may be able to put them to Bird on the day but I cannot guarantee this.
The share price remains in the doldrums, I am not sure if this is due to worries over a placing or the Aussie deal which resulted in the issuing of 100m shares, lack of meaningful news and delays has not helped matters of course.