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Interesting that FRES and HOC are doing very well today....I have been buying FRES at under 800p and HOC under 152p... Today's buying giving a very clear signal on the dollar....in the sense that FRES and HOC buyers are betting on a FED pause on interest rates and bond yields ..( the dollar strength hurting gold and silver prices )
Turkish Lira and Indian Rupee up against the Dollar
Really need to watch that Dollar
Yesterday's 800 Dow Slam..may have actually done me a favour
Toff I am not experienced enough to decide how the UK market works..if I am honest ..I am learning as much as the next man...which is why I am open to hear views ...like your own ..or even Last Call (without the drama) ..I do make notes of some of the things he says before he deletes them...
I think VOD is following a similar pattern to Centrica ..which "they" took down to 123p in Feb ...and again has a dividend which is very questionable...in CNA case they have been churning out script dividends and FINALLY the CEO has made noise about targets before paying the "progressive" dividends ..of course CNA is in a different sector to VOD ....but a massive change of thought has gone on there ..and barely returned
Plenty of Private investors in all fairness sit on profits...but dont take them (message to myself on that one) ....the bears have stood aside and let the market price rise and the private investor has said ..no,no..its OK
The bears then say ..OK then....if you dont want some profit ..we do..and then they take their turn
The market climbs the stairs but falls down the lift shaft ..is what they say .... fear hits the market more than greed assists it...
Private investors more often than not ...have underestimated their future reaction to fear and under estimated the implication of potential bad news and what its implication can have
There is an unfair advantage of course ..in the sense that....my view on the market may be VERY credible but my tiny little amount of cash cant influence you into believeing my thoughts
A City player can have a non credible view but because of the size of their "bet" they can have an influence
As I mentioned last week ..someone said to me ..that you make money in the stock market but only once you have learnt how not to lose it ...private investors have a tendancy of not learning enough about how they could lose it....
Anyway... welcome your thoughts....it is a complex playing field
I am just adding one or two comments on a very complex market interpretation
One thing I would add about Last Call.....he is actually basing his opinion of VOD on what the market is telling him....ie on the vast number of other investors around the sector, EM etc....it isnt actually his view...it is him telling what the market is saying...for what that may be worth
In context, holding up better than I expected before today's open. US & Asian markets seeing huge outflows, but those indexes also have more highly-inflated tech stocks than FTSE. Low sterling also helping to keep stocks like VOD up as their profits in dollars. Let's hope 150+ was the closing low & a support level, though still too early to be sure. - GLA.
PS. Re last night's & previous days nonsense on this otherwise sound BB.
I've no issues with anyone's bearish views. I welcome all opinion. But 50 to 60 posts from one poster in barely 2 hours with stuff repeated? FFS! Can't folk just try to be reasonable. Surely not that hard or complicated.
So on your thinking toffappleton, the market is not free and rigged by the MMs? Is it not more nuanced than that? The MMs don't decide what price bargains are struck at but respond to orders to buy and orders to sell. From the balance of buyers and sellers is derived the price and the MMs only grease the wheel.
The way you've put it is like the MMs decide what something is worth, and not the market.
Are defensives really defensives nowadays. If a defensive stock only potentially loses a smaller amount of capital is it any better than a deposit account paying 2.2%. Maybe I've got my logic wrong but I don't really know what a defensive stock is now. I know what it used to be but they don't seem to be behaving as they used to.
I don't know if it is a proper downturn or not.Who does. Certainly not the IMF. The hacks have been foretelling a crash for a few years now so have to be right eventually.I do know I don't want to lose the gains I have made and am quite happy to keep those and look again in 2019. This seesaw is too erratic for my blood. If anyone really knew when to buy and sell they wouldn't be on here or even trading regularly.. They'd be at their villa in the South of France telling the chauffeur where they wanted to be driven for lunch. I'm always reminded of the IPO's when considering how herd mentality combined with desperation equals poor judgement. I had a bash at Woodford but sold at 20% gain as couldn't see what would hold it up. Sabre Insurance the same with too much noise and no substance after the fantastic gain. Baillie Gifford went right under the radar for so many with full allocations (a first for me) and immediate top up a week later selling out Monday. My luck on those was pure caution. The Smithson IPO i have just cancelled my application for the SIPP and ISA (even though he walks on water in a rising market) as it will without doubt rise because of the personality fanboys but if this is a sustained seesaw market I don't want to be 70 before i see a decent profit. AVI IPO is one which I wonder will be affected as I bet full allocations will be given if not cancelled. I was hoping to build an income share collection but don't want to subsidise my divis with capital realised or not. In real terms vodafone has underperformed for years. So it is my personal view. I take my own path as vod looks tempting with the baited divi at this price but not for me in this market as i cannot see the wood for the trees. For those buying in at 200, 190,180,170,160. How many years of divis does it take to recover the capital lost. If I am wrong then i will have missed some gains but kept my cash so in real terms inflation will have won. I'm not touching vod for the forseeable future but those that do and get the best of both worlds subsidised free divis and capital appreciation good for them.