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Just been checking back and came across this Cramer lightning round comment, from last night,
"Vodafone Group PLC: "This thing has been such a laggard, and every time that the stock goes down more and more, the yield gets bigger, and now I'm starting to wave the red flag. There's something wrong there. I don't trust it."
He just fires off comments like confetti, I wouldn't trust anything he says. He mesmerises by talking fast and I do wonder how much of his rhetoric stands up to analysis. I would be curious to check back through his red flags and see how many actually point to anything significant, From what I can tell, his analysis is, High yield with falling share price equals something wrong without proof, therefore Red Flag, how very scientific. I think the US is detached from reality, they are used to stocks getting stratospheric valuations, on wing & a prayer growth estimates, but only for US stocks.
I agree Jack. A myriad of information in that post. Unfortunately a lot of it is beyond me, but I’m sure if it gets deciphered, it would be a very important knowledge base.
Certainly one of the main areas of focus. Nick Read has said he is targeting over €7Bn costs with digital transformation
Financial reengineering from the Liberty deal will be big too
This has to be the main area of focus.
VOD need to double down on driving efficiency measures.
"I know the above isnt much help, but il fine tune it for you the day im really out of here. will fling you an email before the last ban haha". End quote.
That was a decent post from MN, IMO, hence I did the screen grab I did. Just the one mind. GLA.
At the risk of getting myself banned or finding disfavour here, as stated, I did a screenshot of one MarketNav’s posts. This is quoted in full as below. I hope & assume he won't mind. Cheers.
"Basically its all algos do. Assess the flow at points of past volume major interest. Not period voilume though. price volume. Im sure there are some others that do different. But not influential because price mostly does as youd expect in these areas anyway (cal the ball)
Charts, mostly naked. Two sets of volumes,A primary, one more so than other because it tells me nearly to a tick, where price will go to and stall next.
Candles, but i have a very different take on them to most outside the city walls (mad hatter party). ANd thats probably my personal edge. Look at them from a perspective that identifies what most dont look for, as long as syncs in with volumes.
four averages...but not saying what they are here. Yes i put 200 sma and ema on, but thats just so see if retail get played or not. They are not typically averages that wake me up. Fibonacci, but again, to watch retail get played and take direction more from them being fooled, than a call.
Rsi, has its uses. But not overbought or oversold. But needs a very specific setting to be relevant for divergence.
There is also the itchimoku cloiud. However, not to be used to read trends, and all elements can be stripped away, bar the cloud itself. Has a couple of uses for eastern money reading.
What makes me laugh is things like moving average crossovers and, only buy above 200 and sell below 200 etc. what a laugh, people still beleive it all
Apart from that, just have key company dates tagged to charts..agm, results, ex div date, and div date. Often aids a call when you see it a few weeks ahead. Time into capital chase right etc.
then sector charts and so on. Etfs...i wont buy a share if 80% of the globe looks rotten, the sector aint calling or the derivatives are going harder the other way. just things like that to get probability way up there with you.
There really is not much other stuff of relevance. I only look at news for a laugh.
RNS only has one use...normally if your not in and something breaks, too late. But its ok to get an rns alert when your in. Because if it caused something you just went into to jump a high percent, you can get out before they take it back again.
A few other bits and pieces but no rocket science. Markets simple enough. They start out complex, and the trick is to simplify it
What does it matter if the markets are manipulated? In fact, isnt it great? makes it more predictsable when you know the game. Suddenly manipulation is your friend
Day trading...i only like one type. Into news or data. But only if the instrument has gone one fairly vertical direction from last swing into it...if volume sits at time? il take opposite direction just before release. Crude estimates n stuff like that. Not so much on shares
Thanks. We've similar views about holding stocks temporarily under the cosh & the reasoning. Much agree.
Re MN/Jpam's posts, IMO, all BBs are healthier when common assumptions are challenged. Amid his excessive banter, there were also interesting contrary insights. Some valid points. So I took a screen shot of one post of his for further reflection as I assumed they might disappear again, as they have. I shall post his musings from that one post after this for anyone who cares.
Indeed, every time a stock trends downwards, we see many selling at huge loss near the bottom when fear is close to maximum. That's when the smart money usually starts buying. I'm not good enough to join the smart money for having bought this higher. My lowest position in VOD is 175. Nor do I have access to the L2 & other live data feeds to enable that.
Though we don't know where the bottom is as yet, we know that process will play out, followed by recovery. This wil be higher again, bar fresh shocking news. As I've little certainty where the bottom is, I stick by what works for me with real shares.
For eg., as stated last night, I avoid emotions, similar noise or trying to chase markets by selling & hoping to buy back cheaper. Luckily, that comes naturally. I have in the past hedged longs with shorts.
Like you, if I believe a decent divi-payer will recover for an overall gain, I doggedly hold. No doubts faze me. However, I also never assume that things can't possibly get worse via negative sentiment, before better. As Poker says, we really control nothing in this game, bar how we approach these things as individuals. This game is rarely easy. - Regards.
Daniel Hi, yes after reading up on today's posts it must have been him but he was captured again. I was out all yesterday afternoon and just got back this morning so I missed all of his posts !! GREAT as I understand all 76 of them I could not understand what people were talking about, that must have been the quickest ban yet.:-)))
Have a great w/e
I must have missed something, who or what is MarketNAv is it Jpam again ???? If it is he has been banned yet again I think.LOL
Think I have lost the plot as being away for a few hours yesterday I cant understand half the post on here anymore. LOL
Yes I tend to agree, down that much on one share is totally bonkers and he is advising many to short, buy etc etc then he says he can live on the divi's. I would be looking in the hardware shop for a length of rope LOL
Jack, the posts have gone, but I did follow 'a stream of consciousness' about the markets and players which had some interesting thoughts ...but 76 posts..!
I have a capital loss on Vod too and wont sell my core holding. I do some cost averaging down and on bounces, swap non core holdings for more diversity/ value elsewhere in the market if it improves my total pot. Of course I got caught with the US Asia correction this week as well.. but last nights posts reminded me 1.) when you are in the market, often you want out and 2.) when you are out of the market, often you want in
Previous crashes I have hit and missed the bottom, swapping in and out. I have also scared myself so that when I got losses back, I came out of the market and didn't want to go back in, and missed further upside etc
On balance, I am choosing companies for core holding that will be here in 5 years time. I think it is better to be in the market all the time, even if you have to hold a loss on a good company. Continue to monitor/ take swap opportunities as they arise.
I also console myself about losses in my SIPP as follows:
a.) I didn't pay income tax on the original SIPP contribution and avoided a tax loss to HMRC which is more than my Vod loss...
b.) If I didnt invest in VOD and drawdown the money, I would again have a tax loss to HMRC
c.) By staying invested in VOD, my capital loss is therefore reduced by the tax loss avoided and by the div
d.) Vod has time to recover, pay Divs, and I will drawdown in relevant tax years, but not when I have a net loss
I would take what he tells you with a pinch of salt...
Mrd hi, re your post "Im now in for 650k. Making me feel dizzy. Need 164p to break even
Thats £84,500 down at the mo. wow
1.64 - 1.51= 13pps @ 650,000 shares = £84500.00 now thats a big downer on one share. ?????
This is a game with many,many players and most of the players have far more ammunition than any little private investor.
We dont decide when VOD will turn....it is very much out of our hands...as small time players...
Sufcessex knows only too well that they did the same thing with HSBA a couple of years ago.....hammered it down and down and down to about 430p ...knocking hundreds of billions off the MCAP.. it was for a year too ...once it turned it climbed over the next couple of years to 785p or there abouts...different sector / different reasons of course
It made no difference BB chat talking about whether it would turn or not...the "Masters" decided and that was that...
This will turn too....when..is out of the small players hands ....it actually doesnt make much difference whether one poster thinks it might drop a bit lower and one poster doesnt ...although the closer you can get to what the "Masters" might be deciding the better your decision might be ...difficult as that is...
All anyone can do is either sit in the back seat and wait until the car turns around and just go along for the ride
..or wait by the roadside and get on board on the return journey ...... you take your pick
Interesting thoughts. GL to us all - we’ll all need it by the looks of it !
I agree, important to see both sides. FWIW, this is by far my biggest loser on paper. What caught me out was a mix of past few years technicals, which suggested solid support at circa 180, bar intraday dips, & fundamentals buoyed by claims of free cash flow covering divis & revenues covering debt. These were then parroted across BBs. It seems that many were misled by the free cash flow claim due to various methods of calculating it (really a form of creative accounting). So we are where we are. Myriads of us, which is no consolation
Like I say, I think you know far more than many about various aspects of this game. Presumably you'll see things that others won't even look for. We all learn at our own pace, but while that's ongoing, it's then key to at least have a general understanding of technicals, market sentiment, herd behaviour, an apathetic temperament, etc.
I'm off now so will catch you & all later. I wish you goodnight & thanks for your input. Hopefully your posts will still be ere tomorrow for others to absorb. - GL.
I agree. Hard to be certain of much. So to cut out risk of emotions & internal chatter swaying me, I stick by a time-honoured approach that’s served me well over time with real shares (not leverage). My first buy always well below L/T resistance levels. In some cases, there's limited, well-considered strategic averaging down. Anathema to some, I know, but it works for me. Then I'll sit tight for recovery, picking up yield. Doggedness isn't always an advantage, especially with leverage which I also use, but it comes naturally to me &, so far, has led to profitability.
As a trader I accept I’m below average. No time for ego. But I’ve done okay since 2009 with real shares. But that’s meaningless as all that really counts is one's current positions & next trades. So we will see. You may get your 127 first. If you do, credit as due. But I’ve little reason to believe that short of disastrous fresh news, this won't be much higher again later. That doesn't hide or seek to excuse my crap calls. But this is how I tend to deal with it. That's all. - GL.
Ok, Can't understand any of 3 posts, but what are you on man, stoned or what.
Thanks. Appreciated. You know me. I give everyone the same respect. Mindful that some people know more than others, regardless of how their style of how they choose to comment. I think MarketNav/Jpam is a knowledgeable guy, so his input is taken on board, whether I agree or disagree.
One for thing for sure is that despite others opinions, I'll not be selling VOD at these levels, even though I grant we may possibly go much lower if we lose 150+ support. But what's new? I've ridden out very poor calls before,as have a few of us. Little that's easy about this game. Regards.
Do you ever talk to people face to face, are you some kind of freak perhaps. If you do talk to people, do you tell them you are the great last call, & if so how do they react. Perhaps you just sit in a room all day tapping at your computer. You are a sad & pathetic person. But I just laugh at you, like I would if I saw a monkey in the zoo.(sorry if I disrespect monkeys)
Sorry I do ''love'' not live
Anyway past my bed time
Not sure who you are but thanks for asking :-)
Living the dream honestly
God I do live these Bill Boards
Take nothing to heart, or personel its all part of the game IMHO
Its all part and parcel of the game
Jack don't let them get to you son your a LEGEND !!!
Harmless banter IMHO
Sentiment can be affected by technicals only when there's absence of fresh news, but deteriorating or improving fundamentals will also play a part. Quality of VOD's fundamentals are open to huge questions, including re servicing their debt leverage, possible slashing of divi yield, poor growth forecasts, etc. It's just a number of things that have fallen together. Hence the hammering.
However, IMO, those selling at loss at recent levels , in some cases at huge loss, are probably panicking. It's an emotional response. If larger funds are reducing, they may well know something for sure that retail doesn't yet. That remains to be seen. Otherwise the time to sell was higher up.
Answer the question, if not you are a loser, would Last Call think you are a loser?! You never answer my posts, You don't like the truth do you?? Answer or just go away.