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That's interesting, the link to the Sareum Website to compare the pipeline in my last message
http://www.sareum.com/development/overview/
Doesn't link, the website is not secure for some reason. Anyhow, i think my point was illustrated, if we can secure new interest it should help build on the vlaues
Here's to a good week for share holders new and old....
GLA
I was researching further Sareum (SAR) compared to our position here at Valirx (VAL)
This is the situation: -
Sareum (SAR) http://www.sareum.com/
Valirx (VAR) https://www.valirx.com/
Pipeline: -
Sareum (SAR) – 8 Projects – 2 at Phase 2 - http://www.sareum.com/development/overview/
Valirx (VAL) – 5 Projects (incl the one started last week) – 2 at Phase 2 - https://www.valirx.com/our-pipeline
Both similar cash at bank position but the market Values are Radically different: -
Sareum (SAR) – MCAP £ 227 m
Valirx (VAL) – MCAP £ 18 m
Now I’m not posting this in anyway to discredit the great work of Sareum, it’s a terrific business and there are some differences However, is it really worth almost 13 times our value?
I mean come on; I think Sareum is fair value but the share price of Valirx is just on the floor by comparison.
It will be interesting how events unfold following the VAL presentation next week and obviously licensing of VAL201 or VAL401 will be the game changer but make no bones about this, Valirx should be at least in the 80p to £ 1 range pre licence deal all day long imo.
From purely an investment perspective this stock offers serious upside value from here. We just need to bring more attention to the business, as I see it, we are un-noticed here, as interest builds so will the share price.
I believe that interest has finally just started, we now moving towards the 40p line and then up to the 80P line. The first deal should plant us well into our first £1 imo. As I posted yesterday, I appreciate that’s not much comfort to those in at £11 but these things take time with Biotech’s and the Share Price recovery must start somewhere.
Looking forward to Tuesday’s presentation and the more interest created the better
GLA
From my own Investment perspective, I value all views, but I obviously have a pro Bullish stance.
If I’m investing my hard earned into something its because I totally believe in the business and its prospects, if I didn’t, I wouldn’t be here.
I appreciate PMs posts, the poster is evidently pro Valirx and whilst some may use the word Rampy, I am often accused of being rampy myself but its hard not to post in a VERY positive stance when you look at all the great things the company are doing and yet the market still hasn’t caught up.
Equally when a share falls from grace as Valrix has (97% down from its high) a discussion board like this is going to pick up a lot of disgruntled shareholders that will have total apathy towards if the company can make it or not going forwards. I totally get that.
I’m only interested in the here and now and where the business and share price is going to from here, the new management team in situ kind of resets the clock for me. They have clear focus, set objectives and personally I’m right behind them.
Now I’m not suggesting that the SP can return to £11 level from here overnight and fully recover historic investors losses, but it is making a start, the recovery Is in play, and you know, stranger things have happened, I have every confidence in them
GLA Onwards ad upwards from here, long may positive sentiment return
Pork’s
Im not the brightest in the room, but it doesnt take a rocket scientist to see PM is a ramper. He doesnt give it a rest. Have we signed that deal yet lol
If you go back a year to when the SP went to 70p odd, the boards and poste were very similar - Valirx to be saviour in the cancer fiels - i certainly still hope so and im alk for positivity. Sentiment alone can drive SP. I have faith in VAL now leave @porky alone, he has done alot in educating us ignorant bag holders abkut Val and its facts....facts.
Only SCAP prepared to sell any at 27.5 the rest are 28/29/30 volume is just so thin...
It just needs a good dose of publicity to bring attention to them
GLA
Maybe get our losses back before the close stranger things have happened here.
L2’s just gone back to 2 v 1 & 10k v 5k
Porky - that would be awesome!
I am in total agreement regarding securing a good deal on VAL 201
Although, VAL401 may likely cross the Line first as Suzy commented "VAL401 has a shorter route to market due to the nature of it as a reformulated generic drug"
Whichever deal over the line first will prove the concept and secure their future. Out of the two VAL201 i would expect to carry the biggest Licence fee
@StarBright, i accept you will consider this comment rampy but i seriously think the first deal will break the £1 SP level, i genuinely believe that.
@Jhfg - Polar built their SNG stake by buying a parcel from Acacia, and then through a placing. They did their subsequent selling in the open market though.
I agree 100% that getting a good deal for 201 is the key, and that the upside from there could be material.
Starbright - You do make a compelling argument. I must confess to having only invested in Biotech stocks for the last 2 years so certainly do not claim to be an ultimate authority.
My one relevant experience however comes from Synairgen, which I have held shares in from a MCAP of c£20m. At that Mcap SNG had multiple institutional investors and UHNW investors who specialized in small cap biotechs.
Shares were owned by The Woodford fund, Leonard Licht, Acacia to name but a few. These some of shares may have been acquired through a placing but holdings were increasing and decreasing on the open market too.
While the MCAP was around £100m some relatively major funds purchased. Polar Capital has purchased 11% (now down to 8%) on the open market.
Should a good deal for VAL201 be secured and MCAP of c£50m be achieved, I think it is very possible that we could pick up a couple of funds. It would be this which would secure the new valuation and prevent a regression as seen on previous spikes.
Once the company has a pipeline of revenue, a new generation of investor will take note.
@Bluecity- I have explained in my last post. Depending on the cash position. I do not think they can afford to leave it to the last minute as that can force Val into a placing or a poor deal. As a negotiation tool a deal would need to be secured at least a few months before cash runs out.
Also Val have mentioned that the main priority was to get a deal for 201 which has been ongoing since last year and the work by Physiomics for 201 has been done. I don't mean we will get a deal tomorrow and it could still happen in October or November but I think we are at a stage where a deal is coming fast and i think it will be very soon. Also Val 301 has been gone for 17 months that is a long time. That should be coming to a conclusion.
We are also due an update for all the work that Physiomics have been doing. I think any positive news the SP should do well given our current low market cap.
@PM2022 - Yes re the purpose of the warrants. And if a good deal for 201 is secured, Cenkos will do well from them alongside all of us. This is the best case scenario, and the one I hope we will see play out in the coming weeks/months.
@Jhfg - nice idea, but institutional/fund investors (my professional background) rarely build positions in companies like VAL by buying in the open market because of stock availability and market (price) impact. A typical £100m small cap fund might look for a position size of £2m, say 7m shares. If they took 15% of average daily traded volume, that would take around 35 days to acquire without scaring the ducks. However, it would be disclosable via TR1 just 10 days in. Such an entry strategy would be self-defeating for a fund as they would end up paying a significant premium for their stake. So it is unlikely that they would embark on such a course of action, however much we existing holders might like to speculate on how fund buying and disclosure would be to our benefit. Funds prefer to buy positions from companies requiring capital, when they can do so in worthwhile size at a discount through placings. Those placings also generate income for the brokers involved! This is how the small-cap world works. Every 'board on LSE is full of speculation/hype regarding insto investors buying in size in the open market, but it doesn't happen very often...
PM, I thought you said last week that they've probably already signed a deal? For the past 4 months, you say every day that somethings about to happen...yet it never does.
Here's an idea. I'm all in with this positivity stuff going around. However, should we not focus primarily on things we like about the organisation and it's products, and less on when we're going to get a partnering deal and become rich? We full well know that Cenkos have not been brought in to broker deal or deals in a matter of a few short weeks. They're going to be working on it for a while I'm sure. Otherwise why not just pay for their services for a month? If your logic is telling you a deal is coming very soon, you should be able to give logical some reasoning as to why you think that is.
@Starbright- Suzy would know by now if she is going to get a deal or not. The work done by Physiomics for 201 was completed a few months back and they have been negotiating since last year. Kevin did state in December last year they will PICK the partner.
It does appear they do have sufficient interest in 201 and are in advanced discussions with the chosen partner although a deal can always fail at the final hurdle and that is the risk here IMO. The reason for issuing Cenkos with the the warrants as stated by Suzy was because brokers make most of the money through a placing and as one is not planned they have been given warrants which would also act as an incentive as well. One would not be planned as they are confident of securing a deal soon.
Also we have 301 as well. I think a deal is very close and will be transformational and will generate massive interest. It will be interesting to see what they have to say if no deal on Monday or Tuesday next week.
Starbright - If Cenkos can bring in investment from institutions for a placing, I see no reason why it shouldn’t be able to convince those same analysts/institutions to take long positions while the company does not need a placing.
@Starbright
With respect the companies share price is on its ars@, it needs new fresh investor interest
If you read my earlier posts on this point I have well pointed out the risks that if they don’t get etc a licensing deal and sort this before end of March 2022 a placing will be required however the company has said it intends to avoid that.
It’s all very well and good proclaiming to be oh so balanced but it’s been a balanced and may I say bloody negative board here for the last year with the share price going nowhere so let’s at least champion some of the great things they are doing, the SP doesn’t even represent the bloody peer average yet!!!!!
Porks - are these boards venues for discussing shares/companies, their strengths and weaknesses, their opportunities and threats? Or are they simply venues for promoting shares/companies (in which case we should stick to strengths and opportunities only) to investors? As an investor I value the former use-case over the latter. I recognise that you hold a different view!
The long decline in the SP here has created an attractive opportunity for a committed value investors like myself. Recent changes in management and strategy combine to create a platform from which commercial success is more likely. I have a position in VAL, because I believe that the company can generate real value for its shareholders through such commercial success. I - obviously! - want the company to succeed. But... the company is not perfect, there are weaknesses and threats as well as strengths and opportunities. Overtly dismissing discussion of these is the hallmark of simple ramping, of an intent to suck in new investors and drive the SP regardless of the underlying situation. You only have to read this board to understand that this is perhaps a perfect opportunity to do just that.
Regarding your responses on points 7&8, Cenkos will do their best with the limited number of funds who are active investors in micro-caps like VAL. Such funds are unlikely to drive sustainable price appreciation by investing in the open market. It's just not how they work. There's a lot of road to cover before VAL gets to an MCAP where tracker funds might become a material factor, they simply aren't relevant strategies for small-caps (let alone micro-caps) because of the small amount of committed capital AND the underlying challenges of index replication.
I agree - as I said - with C. If VAL can get a deal done in time then no placement will be required.
But investors - current and potential - should be very clear that firms employ Cenkos to raise capital from institutional investors, and such capital will be raised through placings. At the risk of stating the obvious, only capital committed through placings is available to the company to further its ambitions. Brokers have a role to play in marketing the attractiveness of their clients issued equity, but only because such clients might want to go to market to raise more!
@StarBright
Is the Glass half empty or is it half full? Is pessimism healthier than Optimism? Each to own style I guess….
But if I’m researching a stock and I visit a stock board full of negativity personally, it puts me off. If the audience is positive about the company I might be prepared to dig deeper.
Points 7 & 8
Business has stated no intention on a further placement.
A) IF Cenkos do their job properly there is no reason why they can’t present / market this business to small funds to create interest, they have a vested interest in the SP going up, if it doesn’t, they earn nothing next year
B) Once the SP increases sufficiently it will then start getting picked up anyhow by some of the AIM tracker funds
C) Suzy has until end of Q1 2022. IF no signed licence deal of any description by end of March 22 across the line they would need a placement. However, they have made it perfectly clear they expect something to license and let’s face it they have three on the brink of getting across the line.
Point 9
Agree, any findings from PYC would without doubt be a game changer and imo result in a significant step change in our SP.
Point 10
Glad you find my posts “Entertaining” – I’m not here to entertain or bemuse the pessimists. I agree that one person can’t Influence a SP long term. But I do have a vested interest here in the stock doing well AND moreover the share seriously lacks exposure. IF everyone here created some noise around the stock, told other investors about it, positivity can be created, and hopefully new Investors join and support.
Let’s face it we are talking a Biotech here on a chicken feed valuation of £18m its 28p not £11. The upside here is material. It kind of puts it into perspective….
Pork's
I agree with 1-6.
7 is pure fantasy.
8 is a question of timing. A placing will be required if no deal with upfront payments is announced before q1 next year. Placings aren’t all bad - companies are listed in order to raise capital!
9 would be great, possibly game-changing. Fingers crossed.
10. Although entertaining, Porky will not be able to influence the SP in the long run!
All to play for, but investors need the company to deliver tangible results. The upside here is material if they can. That is the essence of equity investing…
Current market cap only 18 million. This could and should hit 100, 200, 300 or even 500 million market cap in the coming months/years. Could be a life changing investment for many.
1) Transformation deal due for Val 201 with likely big milestone payments. If gets to market then market cap could hit many 100 millions.
2) Deal due for Val 301. Currently with a Japanese major pharma for the last 17 months awaiting a deal.
3) Deal likely for VAL 401 as per operational target.
4) PYC have no payment for all the work they are doing. Just 6% of any deal. No doubt they will be pushing for a big one with large upfront and milestone payments.
5) About 4 new drugs to be added per year into the pipeline.
6) Cenkos are in at 22 p from next year therefore expect them to really help get things moving in terms of share price. Provides a nice baseline for future investors.
7) Institutional investors will be investing soon. Likely to be without the issue of further shares as indicated by Suzy who said we would likely not have a placing and focus is on raising share price not just the market cap.
8) No placings planned in the near future.
9) Possible and likely new findings from study conducted by PYC for treatments for new cancers, Sepsis and other illnesses.
10) We have Porky
Very little downside from here with so much news due. This really is one to hold for gold and with each bit of news expect massive confidence going forward.