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Afternoon folks,
Good interview, the important bit for me was the conformation that a deal is likely to be signed before the end of the year, hopefully with a pay-out for Val and royalties. If the amount is high enough and the royalties good enough to sustain Val then we should see a increase in the share price and a stabilization of it. It will in my estimation and providing the deal is good enough bring the institutional investors to Val.
SG
Great she doesn't want to eat you Porky. K
she was full of confidence not once was she lost for words great CEO great podcast lets see what the negative derampers have to say now that the word TRY has now been taken out of the equation ??
This company will go from strength to strength OB your taget price will be reached my friend :)
Tomorrow is going to be a very interesting day
Badsterman - have you listened yet? Those quotes were spot on and Porky was mentioned by name.
Perhaps that will buy a bit of credibility now!
@Iceman
I have been debating this with a number of shareholders. Its difficult to predict.
Clearly the deal will include an upfront and be back loaded with milestones agreed, they have confirmed that during the presentation.
If we look at JUST the upfront payments only, not the total deal size, this article here is fairly interesting:-
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/insights/other-data/biopharmas-ballooning-licensing-deal-bill
It's putting the Average upfront on a Phase 3 candidate at 20m USD so in sterling that's about what £14m
Your 10m upfront shout is probably not a bad one.
It will be interesting how events unfold. Mark mentioned the quality of the partner and the management of the trials etc being equally as important. Obviously we want these drugs commercialised as quickly as possible so a bigger back end deal could pay in the long term.
Lets face it, if it turned out the partner was a blue chip like Astrazeneca then that would really add value.
Of course the big elephant in the room is we have potentially THREE deals to ultimately come over the line. Total deal size on 201 at 350m to 500m could be pushing the envelope but who knows, the data from September was brilliant so clearly its a quality proposition.
Whichever way you cut this, im thinking well north of our first quid when that deal comes over the line.
What the chart will look like along that path with the ups and downs of buyers and sellers i don't know, but for those like me that just play long and don't swing trade, its just a case of sitting back and enjoying the ride whilst championing them at every stage frankly...
Fun times....
She is very excited!
£10-£30 million upfront
£350 to £500 million milestones payment
Target £1.80 !!
Les Go!
Soon
See Suzy's tweet:-
https://twitter.com/DillySuzy/status/1449656315366752256
Where can we all listen to the roast?
@Badsterman
Well you got five recs so clearly some love your pessimistic attitude. Perhaps they sold some on Friday hoping for a little drop back to get back in mid 30s and now it turns out that they could miss that boat and will need to buy mid 40s - oh well that's trading for you.
I suggest you listen to the pod cast then you can apologise. It must be bloody hard work to wake up on a Sunday morning and think, i know i will post on LSE and tell them that porky is posting crap regarding the pod cast. Must make you feel all warm inside.
As far as i'm concerned you are a first rate, rhymes with Tanker.
I am totally done with negativity and pessimism, can't stand it. Invest and get behind the business or find company you do like. You are well into SAR, go and add to your holding there if you think it the better ROI potential.
Pork's
NOTE: My post Sat 13.39:-
To further clarity, to quote:
‘We can absolutely say we are on track to have a deal signed by the end of the year’
then again says
‘a signature on the first documents that will make it announceable before year end’
listen to the podcast, then comment.
Of course there is "substance" in the Great Pinky's words. He know's Suzy personally, has already heard the podcast and seen details of the deal for 201 - didn't you know?
What an astute ramper he is. If I could see his missives without that damn green filter I'd believe everything he says ;-)
Lets look forward to what Suzy has to say, that's what counts. However, I doubt she'll mention FOMO, 55p by Friday, Bull Run or any of that jazz.
@DarthInvestor
Get those quills at the ready and down to the Avon, you know you want to... not many fishing days left in the season.
Share Price will take care of itself, this is going one way now, not necessarily in a straight line and it wont happen all in one day, this is a journey we are on now but trajectory is far north from here as i see it.
We closed Friday at the £ 26 m mcap level, so we are barely close to HALF the peer average here. Investors should DYOR and work out what they think fair value is compared to other Biotech's but I'm putting fair value with the first deal behind us north of £65 m market cap £ 1 share price, give or take, depending on terms.
Once we know the exact terms we can then gauge probably what the next two deals might look like, then of course its down to what new projects they add to the stable to bolster the future pipeline but i see no reason why we can't be pushing a £95m market cap so about £ 1.50 by end of Q1 2022 - That's my own personal calculation and others will have different views but one thing is certain, we are looking at a materially higher SP to where we are now as i see it.
So i think its a no brainer buying at these levels but look into it, look at the deals in the market and run your own slide rule over the sums but its looking fairly good odds if you ask me.
Here's to a cracking good week
Pork's
Well everyone needs to listen to the podcast to decide. Just a simple case of comparing the current market cap to an average deal and deciding upside. Risk to reward ratio at current market cap of 26 million is probably close to zero risk over a set period provided we get a deal which is 99 % likely IMO or should be after the interview tomorrow.
I agree with Porky we should be roughly 70-80p before a hint of a deal let alone after a deal which should see us pass 100p easily. Therefore potential is huge and I expect Monday to be a brilliant day for the share price after the Sunday roast interview.
Porky hope ur material investors words of major share price boost is right cos if it aint that investor has just made a large rod for their back that i can use to beat them with!! And then after dropping that bombshell, you r off fishing!! Wha? After rallying the troops to go to war, you go off to the bunker of the fishing lakes?? *shakes head* shameful, be on the frontline with the rest of us with whistle and cain in hand.....
I wouldn't mind but I'm off to the muddy puddle again Monday to land me a big Carp, so probably miss much of the excitement here but hopefully i can catch a decent Mirror and return to decent uplift here for when i get back....
Happy Days guys
Onwards and Upwards..
Pork's
Oh go on then, may as well get the excitement juices going for Mondays trading...
I can't take credit for this as its was shared by another material investor here but the podcast will be out shortly anyhow:-
Strap yourselves in for Monday guys, I'm expecting a MAJOR Share Price boost.
I'm hearing that the Sunday Roast Interview has been absolutely Amazing as expected. To further clarity, to quote:
‘We can absolutely say we are on track to have a deal signed by the end of the year’
then again says
‘a signature on the first documents that will make it announceable before year end’
So Get in there..... that should shut the naysayers up.... talk about gift wrapped with a bow on top...
What an amazing, amazing opportunity this is, and jeeze, at 40p we are only at £26m Market Cap, peer average 80p £52m - oh my days, this share is worth north of its first pound all day long.
Good Luck all
Pork's
Porky, your posts are always appreciated and informative, thank you.
Your above comment regarding Sunday....is this just said in hope and with enthusiasm or is there some substance to what you say?