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Ocelot, exactly that!, perhaps they want it discounted more.......like discounting it down to zero perhaps?.....then we'll never get a placing done, crafty little trolls......when , finally the sp turns blue, will they change into Smurfs....I wonder.
" how about a comment on "why are the uninvested so concerned,they've got nothing to lose" ......without another history lesson please."
Because I have seen unscrupulous rampers and Sanderson with ridiculous claims lead many inexperienced investors to huge losses; and I do not like it.
Someone once very clearly wrote on here; if you see a person being mugged in the street; do you ignore or do something? I actually had the pleasure of taking a street mugger out some years ago; it was the right thing to do. I have a sense of justice and fairness.
I know its uncomfortable, but I am posting facts and not a fair tale of easy riches Sanderson has spouted for years. The only one retiring to the Bahamas will be Sanderson himself.
Cyan 2, how about a comment on "why are the uninvested so concerned,they've got nothing to lose" ......without another history lesson please.
Archive material is doubtless of interest to archivists, but the market has had years in which to take account of this material, so it is all in the share price.
What can change the share price is what is not already discounted in it.
Good afternoon Ocelot
You wrote "so investors have to be forward-looking, too."
Agreed, BUT you have to consider Sanderson's record of 'achievement' and the veracity of his previous claims BEFORE you take anything he says at face value about Turkey . Its what UKOG does not say that should interest.
He mentions the nearby and 'lookalike' East Sadak as an example of how quick Resan could be monetized; He does not say how many drills failed there or what the production of the 'lookalike' is; why not?
The market is forward-looking, so investors have to be forward-looking, too.
That should have posted...what might happen, not what happened 3year's ago
Cyan 2, I'm talking about the present and the future.....TURKEY....what might happened 3 years ago
Ozzy52 writes;
"I try to be honest.in what I say......many who criticise Sanderson for overstating the facts, now criticise him for saying very little"
Very commendable.
Lets look back at these two written statements from UKOG and Mr Sanderson;
19th April 2019 UKOG in their Loxley planning submission stated that ;
"Flow tests and pressure data from the Broadford Bridge and Horse Hill Wells Sites have been sub-commercial.."
Move on 5 months;
12.9.2019 Sanderson states;
"Meanwhile, the Kimmeridge continues to produce solidly and beyond our technical expectations, which bodes extremely well for the future Kimmeridge development at Horse Hill and elsewhere in our licences in the Weald Basin."
Can both statements be true?
As for; .."now criticise him for saying very little"
Its what he HAS said, again and again that has been proved wrong.
And for what he and UKOG have not said; I do criticize UKOG for not RNSing their sub commercial determination.
The clues all was not well with the Kimmeridge even before that September ludicrous claim from Sanderson;
RNS dated 28th June 2019
hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/uk-oil-gas-UKOG/share-news/UK-Oil-Gas-PLC-Half-year-Report/80227669
"Whilst we remain very positive on the future commercial potential of Kimmeridge oil play, we have assessed that, for risk mitigation purposes, we now plan that the Kimmeridge development, commencing with HH-1z, will likely follow the start of full scale Portland production from Horse Hill."
"risk mitigation" ?
UKOG is now in Turkey; says it all really; no big money to be had in The Weald now. He stated as much here;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEu4M3nCkWI
Penguin, similarly, you only emphasize the negatives.....horse hill production must benefit from the increase in oil price and production at E.Sadak will have no bearing whatsoever on any UKOG profits........now for the lecture.....oh dear
Cyan 2, and at that time he was quoting the flow test figures of that period of flow testing, then things started to go wrong....we know the history.....we're constantly reminded of it, we are now in a significantly different period, as other projects are very slow at the moment the focus is on Turkey....as for " playing with words " I see that done every day from the naysayers.....so I have learnt something from them......what Sanderson has said in the past cannot be denied.....that is the same for all of us on here......I try to be honest.in what I say......many who criticise Sanderson for overstating the facts, now criticise him for saying very little......you're damned if you do, you're damned if you don't.......let the drill do the talking......very soon......why are the uninvested so concerned......they've got nothing to lose
Penguins,
The market is forward-looking, so today's oil price is of the greatest relevance to UKOG's prospective operating margin in Turkey. It is much more positive for UKOG for Brent to be around $73 than around $40, as it was when UKOG first announced its plans for Turkey (RNS of 23/07/20).
Ocelot,
The operating margin in Turkey is irrelevant to today's profit margin - which is what today's OP determines - which seems to be the title of this thread.
My post was indeed specific to HH.
With no production in Turkey there is no 'extra profit' for UKOG.
But the operating margin for Turkey is derived from the E Sadak field - where production is from about 8 wells and has been operating for about 7 years. I also suspect the operating margin for E Sadak does not include the cost of the wells needing to be drilled on a regular basis to try to maintain production levels for the field because of the rapid decline in production.
There's been no mention of the results of the recent campaign at E Sadak where 2 more wells were planned for late 2020 and 2021 - but as UKOG haven't mentioned anything about production at E Sadak, despite UKOG calling it a producing lookalike that's no surprise - though if the results had been good (whatever that may mean) maybe they would have done.
Ozzy52
You wrote; "most of the oil " extracted " from hh was done whilst in flow testing, so not classed as production( as i see it)"
We can play with words 'production' , 'testing' all day long.
He called it a 'very productive well'
Its there for everyone to hear; Sanderson stating in October 2018 that HH was producing several hundred barrels of oil a day with stable down hole pressure issues.
Sanderson stated that '500 - 700' barrels a day would bring in a million quid a month .
Talked about just one horizontal Portland well potential to produce 700-1000 barrels a day.
He went on to suggest that adding the Kimmeridge and "we are looking at multi thousand barrels per day"
Yes, a lot has changed in the 33 months since
Move on 7 months to 19th April 2019 and UKOG in their Loxley planning submission let slip that ;
"Flow tests and pressure data from the Broadford Bridge and Horse Hill Wells Sites have been sub-commercial.."
That was never RNS'd ; should have been .
Sanderson subsequently spouted a right load of nonsense in this 12.9.2019 RNS
hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/uk-oil-gas-UKOG/share-news/UK-Oil-Gas-PLC-Drilling-and-Testing-Update/80711992
"Meanwhile, the Kimmeridge continues to produce solidly and beyond our technical expectations, which bodes extremely well for the future Kimmeridge development at Horse Hill and elsewhere in our licences in the Weald Basin."
Sanderson has made repeated incredible predictions over the years from 'retiring to the Bahamas' to more recently 'multi thousands of barrels' production at HH.
Judged by delivery ; he has fallen way short.
Ocelot: your final paragraph “But do use some of their posts as triggers to make the points I want to post.” reads like a shill’s confession.
"Its fair to assume that there are at least likely 20 profitable barrels a day; Should be enough to pay Sanderson's and one other directors pay ; maybe."
SS is on £298,000 a year - that's £ 816 a day - 20 pobd is possibly making £ 1000 aday - that has to cover all the office, Directors , all the non-HH staff and all the consultants
They were able to get a fairly steady 200-220 bopd during the well test and they almost got the same as they started "production" - but since then it's been falling steadily
Ozzy52,
Not particularly concerned by the naysayers, because, as Rodders Jones has shown, they speak for less than 5% of the share capital.
But do use some of their posts as triggers to make the points I want to post.
Cyan 2, most of the oil " extracted " from hh was done whilst in flow testing, so not classed as production( as i see it)...so actual production is not "far far worse" as you say .....also you only refer to directors salary cuts, not the Company cost cuts as quoted in the relevant RNS.......say it as it is......not how you would like it.
Good morning Ozzy52
You wrote;
"..there have been major costcuttings since 2018 that is the problem with quoting outdated information.....things have vastly changed since then.."
You are entirely correct; a lot has changed; oil production now is FAR FAR worse than Sanderson reported in 2018.
As for cost cuttings ; yes , indeed; UKOG promised 20 -50% directors pay cuts; turned out Sanderson's was cut circa 9.5 % and other directors less.
Cyan 2, there have been major costcuttings since 2018 that is the problem with quoting outdated information.....things have vastly changed since then(and don't we know it "......as we are all aware we are looking at the prospects as they are now, not three and a half years ago
How profitable is HH production?
in October 2018 Sanderson was interviewed and gave an indication as to the base production required;
hTTps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWHSjOCFRYg
From 4 mins 25 secs he stated that 80 barrels a day at $60 POO is commercial.
POO today is over $70 BUT we have to factor in water disposal costs ; so; maybe 80 barrels a day pays its way today.
HH production is about 100 barrels a day.
Its fair to assume that there are at least likely 20 profitable barrels a day; Should be enough to pay Sanderson's and one other directors pay ; maybe.
Best not to dwell too much on the other figures Sanderson mentioned.
Ibug thanks, that would indicate Mirasol is posting missinformation......no surprise there then
Production in February 21 (2786 bbls) is nearly the same as it was in September 20 (2799 bbls).
Mirasol, still acting like a child i see.........production halved, you say...share price more than quadrupled.....now if you get out your "times tables" books to help you, you may realise the prospects of UKOG are getting brighter