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Penguin quote "nobody knows until it happens" funny that, I've been saying that to penguin for months....and recieved numerous lectures for saying so......quote of the week from Swizzy Abbott, " blah blah blah ", most intelligent thing you've ever said....beats your usual nonsense.
Penguins, the only leak linked to UKOG right now is the water flowing out of HH1 and HH2z. Market shows it's disinterest in the company as the SP continues to drift lower and lower. Maybe the rig is stuck in the snow, one can only laugh.
Someone has paid for the 120 km of 2D seismic ($1-$1.5 million) as it is being worked on.
Ocelot,
a company stating immediate future when it didn't have authority to do a placing until after a meeting over 2 weeks in the future would be odd. Near future doesn't exactly sound as though it isn't needed for a while.
But maybe you're right the placing will be after the drill arrives - stranger things have happened, certainly never say never - but why would anyone agree a placing just after the rig arrival which is likely to see the SP rise, if only temporarily, when there would be more opportunity to sell during a (likely) rig arrival P&D. (PS Ozzy the reason to consider gambling)
Maybe they'll announce the placing and rig arrival at the same time allowing the placee to (forward) sell into the (hoped for) rise - even though forward selling will be explicitly forbidden.
Nobody knows until it happens, unless there's a leak.
As for timing I suspect that the Turkish authorities would allow a delay if needed for any reason as the site has been prepared indicating intention to drill.
Would the Turkish government be hard nosed about the by 27th June date?
More than likely they will give an extension.
The interesting question is; how do the Turkish decision makers view UKOG's application for further licences having watched them struggle with finance to get their first well away on time.
There were others also applying for the licences; so would UKOG's poor delivery performance affect the decisions?
ZYX098: many thanks. And thanks also to cyan2, for reminding me of this. The similarities with Anguish are remarkable in terms of financial condition and the need for prompt action to raise more equity capital. I can’t understand why neither has done it already. I know Mr. Sanderson as had a small setback at the recent EGM but it’s hardly insuperable, surely?
If UKOG can’t finance the first well by 27th, does Aladdin lose the concession? If so, it doesn’t seem to be causing them much lost sleep, does it? What should we read into this?
Indeed. No money no honey. Enough said. Sando needs to give AME a big chunk of cash, £2.5m or thereabouts is due. And the drill costs are likely to be one instalment, not a buy now pay later, or pay in 5 easy instalments arrangement.
Everyone who's researched the results to end of Sept 2020 knows that UKOG are cash strapped. There's no mystery here, just a CEO who is too lame to update shareholders with the harsh hard stone cold facts. Turkey is dead. HH is nearly dead. BB has abandonment costs, and the market knows that both IoW and Loxley are merely ruses to continue operation of the SS gravy train.
Have to wait and see, ZYX098.
It is very clear, to my eyes at least, that UKOG are in no great hurry to get the next fundraise away.
Oofy - it's part of the Licence terms that AME have with the Turkish Govt.
Hopefully they have applied for an extension, otherwise with the time required to mobilise, rig up and acceptance test the Rig, they are already too late.
Ocelot - I have to admire your boundless optimism based on, well, not much really.
But the simple fact is that AME will not begin to mobilse the Rig until UKOG have paid their share (i.e. all of) the funds required to drill the Well.
UKOG will have been notified of this funding requirement through a formal cash call (i.e. the same sort of cash call that Alba are not paying).
AME will not mobilse based on "We promise we'll pay you x% now and the rest later after the placing" - that just is not how this business works, even if UKOG had any credibility.
If everything is going to plan; why do they need working capital in the "near" future?
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Because it is part of the plan to raise capital in the near future (which doesn't necessarily mean the immediate future).
If everything is going to plan; why do they need working capital in the "near" future?
As for the 27th June date and what may or may not happen if the drill has not commenced; I do not know what consequences may follow.
cyan2,
If everything is going to plan, they have no reason to update the market.
cyan2: I’d forgotten this. They’ve got ten days to start drilling, then. What does the “must” refer to? Is it a regulatory thing? Or weather-related? Or part of the terms of their agreement with Aladdin? If the last of these, are there penalties involved, and if so, what are they?
That's a very good alternative reason Ocelot.
Though ,you would have thought UKOG would have updated everyone to that effect if it was that case.
Ocelot is really grabbing at straws, its pretty lame from the chief ramper.
Trying to argue that "near" is not "immediate". LMAO.
Well, put it into context. No updates from Turkey since 12th May, is that the distant past or the recent past?
Fact remains, no updates on Turkey now for 36 days. Maybe AME/UKOG were granted an extension to the 27th June deadline given everything. I don't see that as a drop dead date.
However, based on what I posted previously, Turkey is dead, just waiting for the formalities.
No sign of the drill yet and the only logical reason is that AME are awaiting a cash payment from UKOG.
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Nope.
Another logical reason could be one of logistics.
If we look back to what UKOG published when announcing the Turkish deal they wrote;
Forward Plans
"The first commitment well, currently planned to appraise and flow test the Basur oil discovery, must commence drilling before 27 June 2021. Drilling and seismic are therefore expected to commence before the end of this year, Covid, weather and Turkish governmental transaction approval permitting."
'MUST commence drilling BEFORE 27th June 2021'
Looks urgent to me. No sign of the drill yet and the only logical reason is that AME are awaiting a cash payment from UKOG.
Yes, cyan2, we disagree.
"... will require further funds in the NEAR future" isn't the same as saying: will require further funds in the immediate future.
Good afternoon Ocelot
You wrote; "..the next fundraise looks as if it is being choreographed, to follow the spud and initial drilling of Basur-3."
I respectfully disagree. UKOG published this when asking for support in the GM;
"In order to deliver the Company's stated strategy and growth objectives, it will require further funds in the near future for, amongst other things, its funding obligations under the agreed work programme for the Resan Licence and any of the new Licence applications should they be awarded to the Company and its partner. "
'its funding obligations' in Resan I think refers to paying for the drill.
There is no sign of the drill yet.
Penguins
Thanks for the reply
Confidence will erode as long as UKOG remain silent regarding the urgently needed fund raise.
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Nothing in UKOG's conduct suggests the next fundraise is as "urgently needed" as almost all of us had assumed.
On the contrary, by taking their time to call the GM and, since the GM, of announcing the next fundraise, they seem to be dropping broad hints that they are under no immediate financial pressure.
To my way of thinking, the next fundraise looks as if it is being choreographed, to follow the spud and initial drilling of Basur-3.
Penguin, so you, the most intelligent of them all....are going to buy into a company that you state has no chance of being profitable.....run by the worst lying CEO in history, who has ruined any prospect of profitability in the UK and moved to a no hope prospect in in an extremely risky oil play in Turkey.....I think that has summarised all of your views........and after all the bad comments you have made........you are going to buy these shares......pull the other one.....it's got flippers on......all in your opinion
Penguins,
As I have stated many times before, Sando does not exhibit any level of integrity.
As for blatant misleading (or missing out the bad news) here's why the horizontal was stopped in the RS of 12 November 2019:-
'The good, clean horizontal trajectory, together with the continued indications of possible improved reservoir quality and significantly lower pressure-depletion than expected, led the Company to decide that there was little technical or economic benefit in pursuing drilling to the maximum planned c. 3,000 ft horizontal trajectory'
Whereas in the 2019 - 2020 annual review somewhat different:-
'The horizontal drilling of the Portland HH-2z was completed in November 2019, with the length of the horizontal curtailed by the intersection with natural fractures in the reservoir and the onset of drilling mud losses at the toe of the well.'
The November version is misleading (and looks untrue - the reason for the decision was not as stated) and meant the 23 December 2019 revelation of water ingress (A Merry Xmas to all our Readers) was a surprise to pi if not to UKOG.
Did they forget what they had RNS'd in November?
Jaffy,
Hopefully lower than the herd but I don't have a target and I might just let what I have ride. Watch out for when UKOG twitter stops being filled with ramps for other shares - though even that can fizzle out quickly - and take a view on the 'target' price (here and on twitter) as it's pretty clear that isn't what the herd sell at.
My posts are usually about long term expectations, not trading though.
"Mirasol - Look at his post deramping on every board"
better to look at his losses on all these small oilers..................