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GP - Raithlin said to the community group that they were going for a submersible pump as the energy in the reservoir was not sufficient for natural lift. Not sure what the consent process timeline is who what is needed exactly, whther OGA / EA or both. There may be other things they need but as information is not forthcoming it's largely guesswork by those not in the loop.
You'd think, looking at the Energy Agency's consent, that Rathlin had already covered all the bases when it came to testing oil and / or gas. Since what you recover on a well test depends on the interval perforated, and Rathlin knew there was a gas-bearing section over the oil / condensate section when they perforated the well for the EWT, I assume they would have perforated the oil / condensate part. If they didn't do this they would have risked "Blowing down" the gas cap which would normally help keep the reservoir pressure up when the field starts commercial production. Maybe they didn't find what they expected in the first stages of the EWT, eg black oil rather than condensate, or a reservoir pressure much lower than they anticipated. If this was the case, they would almost certainly have needed some extra equipment, such as a well head pump, which would have meant going back to the EA again. Looking at the EA's website it seems that variations to consents are taking 3 to 4 months to process. Now I'm only guessing, and I don't know why we wouldn't have been told this. I have read somewhere, maybe in a Rathlin briefing to local residents, that the reservoir pressure was quite low. So I suppose it's just possible that we still waiting on a consent variation which hasn't been publicised. But why not, I wonder?
PDMS, RBD hold 59% of Rathlin shareholding. So, basically RBD controlled Rathlin now and indirectly they also control news.
Fair enough PDMSP but it sounds a bit arrogant IMHO. Maybe I won't be able to find out anything new or useful, but I don't understand what's wrong with trying since we've been given so little info about this. Should any new info - and there will probably be none - be ignored just because it's regarded as immaterial by some members of this BB? I think everyone should do what research they think might be useful. Other folk can make of it what they will.
WNA2 flowed, so they say. But there’s no data. The point I’m making is that a CPR was produced and signed off by Deloitte before a definitive flow test was conducted. There is no flow test data in the WNA-1 CPR. That is the pertinent point. I don’t care if they flowed it for a few hours before shutting it in. That’s immaterial.
Regarding PDMSPiper's comment below that WNA1 has never been flowed,I'm pretty sure that I have read somewhere that the Kirkham Abbey had a short flow test from the gas zone, and that the Cadeby was cored but not tested. It should be relatively easy to find out. The WNA1 well is now more than 5 years old as it was drilled from June to Sept 2013. I think this means that it should have been published by the OGA or somewhere similar. I will do a bit of digging and see what I can find out.
There’s a lot of bull on all the websites, Reabolds and Rathlin’s. RBDs presentation also says that the EWT is scheduled to resume in Q4 2019. That’s not now going to happen as no permits have even been applied for. Rathlin obviously have different ideas and a different schedule than RBD. You can forget everything RBD have told us. They aren’t in charge. Rathlin are. The penny will drop eventually. You’ll get it.
Further research for Piper:
If you look on the RBD website, under West Newton, you’ll see this, ‘ The Extended Well Test (EWT) has been paused in order to optimise the evaluation of the potentially significant oil column and it is intended to commission a revised Competent Persons Report (CPR) following completion of the EWT.’
The relevant slides from the RBD presentation are available on Drill it Drop, here:
Both the first slide ‘West Newton A-2 Appraisal Well’ and the second slide, ‘West Newton Forward Plan’ clearly state that the revised CPR will follow the EWT.
I trust that will be enough research to satisfy your curiosity on this issue.
Piper - I realise you are a new arrival on this BB and as yet have limited knowledge of UJO. However, I would advise you to reconsider your attitude if you would like the serious, researched and long term investors here to help further your understanding. Making offensive remarks like, ‘flapping your gums’ risks disrupting the BB.
That said I will help you. It is clear to me that there are many misunderstandings in your posts to date and for the benefit of the wider UJO community I think it worth addressing them.
The information that you need was RNS’d by Reabold on the 29th August. That RNS said, ‘ The Operator and partners currently intend to commission a revised CPR following completion of the EWT.’
As I have said it is a known fact that the revised CPR will follow the EWT. It is not an unknown, or a matter for conjecture.
Uggy and myself spent some time over a weekend around six weeks ago discussing and researching this very point. I expect Uggy may recall that and might have something to add.
PDMS - It was Reabold that indicated the test would come before the update of the CPR, it's in their presentation.
The CPR for WNA-1 wasn’t ignored was it? Even though there was no flow data in it, that CPR has resulted in almost £30Million being invested into Rathlin for West Newton. I’d say the strategy worked out pretty well for them.
Who told you that? That isn’t what Rathlin and Connaught did with WNA-1. They commissioned Deloitte to produce a CPR without flowing WNA1. That well has never been flowed. Do some research instead of just flapping your gums. The Deloitte CPR for WNA1 has worked out pretty well for Rathlin. It attracted RBD, UJO and Humber. There is no reason to suggest they won’t go down that same route again and commission Deloitte to produce a CPR without flowing WNA-2, just like they did with WNA-2. That is my rationale for drawing that conclusion. What evidence do you have to say it won’t happen or are you just stamping your feet? Back it up. I’ll be waiting.
Morning Piper and Mirasol,
The decision has already been made. The EWT comes first and the CPR follows. It’s not an unknown or a matter for conjecture, it’s a fact.
"The EWT comes first. No CPR until EWT complete"
You can do a CPR at any time - sometimes one has to be done as a major shareholder or lender requires an update for internal reasons. The point is that one done without any new hard data is just another expensive (in time, angst & cash) arm waving exercise that the professionals will ignore
“You’re wrong with this statement Piper, ‘ My guess is that next news will be an updated CPR with a paragraph informing that the Kirkham Abbey oil discovery will now be tested and appraised from WNB-1.’
The EWT comes first. No CPR until EWT complete.”
BWM; Rathlin and Connaught will be in charge of that decision. I based my conclusion on the strategy they followed with their last well, how that worked for them in attracting investment and the likelihood of them employing that strategy again. Only by answering these questions can you make a reasoned assessment as to whether or not a CPR will be commissioned without a flow test. DYOR.
You’re wrong with this statement Piper, ‘ My guess is that next news will be an updated CPR with a paragraph informing that the Kirkham Abbey oil discovery will now be tested and appraised from WNB-1.’
The EWT comes first. No CPR until EWT complete.
We must bear in mind though, this is what Cali Joe said only days before UJO issued the RNS stating they were sounding out the market for a placing....
************** on Twitter: "#ujo. For anyone thinking there may be a fund raise, please note the post below. Also note that as of two weeks ago, there was £2.8m in cash in the bank and the EWT paid in advance. UJO are one of the few darlings of AIM and the only institutional door still open to West Newton?? https://t.co/GsIbIO8sUm" / Twitter
Now he says all’s well at WN and the WNA2 EWT will go ahead even though there is no evidence of the necessary permit applications anywhere.
No idea GP. Nothing filed at Ryde Council. Nothing filed at OGA. Nothing filed at Health and Safety Exdcutive. But on the plus side Cali Joe reckons we’re inventing monsters in our own minds and Mighty belle and Snide reckon we’re all just numpties. The have Bramhills number and all the info so they must be right and we’re all just numpties. It seems strange though because only a few days ago mighty belle was saying it was all held up because we were waiting for permits. When it was pointed out that there is no evidence of permits having been applied for he now says it’s because everything is on track and Rathlin are in full compliance, so no permits necessary. Ya couldn’t make it up. They’re having a good go though. Lol.
PDSMPiper: One more query if you don't mind. When you say you can't find a planning / permit application to reconfigure the EWT for oil, I think that's very significant. However, we know that the EWT consent was granted ages ago for a gas test. Do you know if a revised EWT of the oil zone would require a completely new consent from the relevant authority? Is it possible that the EA / OGA might grant it under some form of variation order? If so, it might not show up in a list of applications. Maybe I'm clutching at straws here but I live in hope!
Well all I can say PDMS is that if I really believed there would be no flow test at WNA2 I would have sold up. That would be the last straw for me. I'm still hoping that something will happen this year and knowing the communication from this lot probably the first we will know of it is equipment arriving on site.
Yes you’re right of course. It isn’t a fact until it’s RNSd of course but seeing as I’ve totally failed to find one planning or permit application to reconfigure the well for oil, I have now filed it under “Facts” in my mind. But time will tell.
Hi there DMSPiper: When you say "The fact remains: there will be no resumption of flow testing at WNA-2". Is it really a fact? Or is it just an enlightened guess based on what's not happened so far with the WN-A2 EWT? My view is that they will recommence the WN-A2 EWT once they have all the necessary consents. After all, there is no guarantee that the wells to be drilled at the WN-B site will be successful. Maybe they should also consider going back to the WN-A1 well and testing the gas zone properly . That way they would gain useful information on both pay zones before spending a bundle of cash on the B site wells. Well, I guess we'll just have to wait and see since we aren't being told anything. .
Well back in September 2019 this was the plan according to Reabold.
• Appraisal of Kirkham Abbey formation through flow test at A 2 well
• Update CPR incorporating data gathered to date and upcoming testing results
• Drill first well from West Newton B site, appraising the Kirkham Abbey and targeting the Cadeby in a more optimal location
• Success in the Cadeby may lead to a refocus on that horizon, given its potential scale
• Current plan is to drill a second well at the West Newton B site to optimise appraisal of the Kirkham Abbey
• Flow tests at West Newton B site to assess likely deliverability of development wells
• The shift to oil from initial expectation of gas as well as significant local infrastructure, increases potential for early monetisation through oil sales ahead of full field development
• Drilling and testing will help refine future work programme and move West Newton towards a field development plan
Now it's clear that the first step was an flow test at WN-2 so if that has changed then they should have informed market. Reallt don't undertand why thet can't just tell shareholders what is going om. Disgraceful in my view.
I agree Sting. The only people who weren’t unhappy with the placing are the same ones desperately ramping the resumption of the EWT on twitter. They obviously took the placing and want to get out with a profit.
I make no recommendations as to risk and no predictions as to the future share price. The fact remains: there will be no resumption of flow testing at WNA-2. The only question now is when, and how, will they tell the market.
They’ll want to soften the blow. My guess is that next news will be an updated CPR with a paragraph informing that the Kirkham Abbey oil discovery will now be tested and appraised from WNB-1.
That's why a certain investor bailed out .
I was watching for the rise to bail out on the news myself and was to busy
Mind I didn't think it would drop as it did so quick on the day
I had a plan and did not stick to it lol.
Any way they all knew this EWT was never going to happen and they will all be back for the next Catalyst which will be a EWT from WNB which I even don't think that will go ahead as again once they have wire logging why throw more money at it just get rid.
My only out is for them to get rid of it now with out drilling WNB and that the money was only needed to persuade OGS,EA ,that they have the funds to drill and make good.
Failing that I wait as others for what I believe will be inevitable rises but with the risk of large investor drag back again.
Viva Ujo for Ginger