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Good lord, my fingers are too fat or too slow to write messages on a smart phone.
SHARE response was as expected.
Chex response was as expected, not as executed. Though I guess the shares were mowed down for sure. With a Tommy gun (old timer for AR-15).
KingSuarez: Selloff not surprising. Does not change long term prospects of the company but short term disappointing for many reasons. Uncertainty of how much production and when. A lot of water on zone 2. Memories of Chinook, even today only thing clear about Chinook is that it needs a couple more wells before we know what hey have. It is clear we need a couple more Royston wells. Trinidad needs more gas - want to find another gas supply somewhere on block. Lots of reasons that the response was as executed. Also a few reasons why this might be yet again another buying opportunity. I bought today. I am going to keep adding under US $2.00. I am just getting tired with the ultra long duration of this buying opportunity.
Well. Clearly investors trusted TXPs expectations, i.e. " liquids rich natural gas".
So we got a lemon (or should I say a lemon water) instead of an "unbound" orange. So of course the SP drops. Hardly manipulation anywhere. Road to cash is longer, with more Capex and not the same certainty as more gas would give. Plus some investors will probably wonder how much gas is really down there @ cascadura.
I'm of course still patient, however this was not the result I've hoped for. From the sentiment on this BB one should think THIS was the preferred outcome and oil > gas, etc.
Investors have voted today - they mostly disagree.
I think laser focus for them should be on getting coho online, cascadura online, and would be nice to hear something about the legacy wells. Kraken et al are interesting and exciting for the future, but need revenue streams and credibility established/re-established. A long term production test that produced a lot of oil would be nice too.
Scott22 - what's your personal interpretation/opinion of today's RNS?
i.e do you think the market has it right to (currently) write off zone 2 and 3, or is do you think this is totally misunderstood?
Lexicon: Zone 2 written off, yes. As was Chinook. Zone 3 (shallowest) currently being tested) also written off because as you recall it has the same high resistivity as Zone 2 (compared to Zone 1 -deepest - which had less). The high resistivity was supposed to mean gas not oil but was due to water. So why won’t zone 3 also be high water cut? That is being assumed.
TXP will get no price benefit from this until production is established and reflects in revenues. Simple because the production and revenues are just speculation at present.
T
If the day ends red then there's more selling pressure than buying pressure. The reported trades are not accurate whereas the opening and closing price is.
Mm's have 3 days to report large or uncommon trades. Considering its down 17% I expect large sells from today to be reported over the next few days.
Even if you believe the market has misinterpreted the rns, it doesn't change that there was more selling pressure today.
How low do they want to drive it, it won’t rebound until they are ready. Total manipulation, hope there’s not a raise around the corner.
I'd say next year sometime at this rate. PB did state that it would be a bumpy road...not sure if anyone thought it would be this bumpy....but that's exploration for you! Sit on your hands share! GLA
I think we may have to wait until tomorrow for some sort of recovery
I think what is needed is a clarification RNS not interview that addresses the 90% water cut
I absolutely think the market has written zone 2 completely off
Desperately trying to source more funds - total bargain basement!!!
No HM - the market is saying “you promised us the best jam in 35 years and it’s just more jam tomorrow hopefully”
PB needs to sort out the comms - not good enough!
The market is basically saying that because of the 90% water cut, that this interval is only flowing 50bopd, so is therefore seen as a major disappointment. This is what is called an arbitrage of knowledge. Those able to read the RNS and interpret (thanks to all those that have provided technical knowledge and info today) are able to see this is not a dead interval. And even if it was , we are massively below value for Cascadura. I look forward to further testing and the reserves update over the coming months. It might have some folks kicking themselves. In the meantime, I shall accumulate as much as funds allow.
Pretty shocking when you see how the market is acting on another find. As it stands without any improvements ( been told there will be)the well can produce at 980 bopd and we get a reaction like this is a pi.. take to all investors by the market especially they are going to flow it as soon as possible to help progress the block forward.
When you think that Rns is very good all round both in money generation and savings on cost using same pad for RD1 and kraken.
The Market has stuck 2 fingers up to investors that's for sure.