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Thanks Troubles
Personally I think a compromise is rarely the best solution, so would prefer No Brexit or No Deal. Certainly very happy to sell bdev with profit and Divi for free, last Year bdev took ages to recover after XDivDt.
I still think a Deal is almost impossible, so Politics hardly justifies this surge.
Haven't even looked at bwy FinRes yet, but psn Divi of 125 last year (XDiv around 27/03/20) looks tempting.
BoL
Hi Nige,
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-solution-idUKKBN1WQ1OF
Might be worth a read.
ATB
Hi all
Wow! Talk about a bumpy ride.
Don't know the reason for the surge - don't care. Just sold all float in bdev after picking up 36.8 Divi at 650, Float av 622 so Divi for free, plus a little profit. Back to Base shares av 380. Think I will invest in psn and bwy on Monday.
BoL
Thanks, Tom, enjoy your weekend!
Hi Tom,
' Rewarded at the end of day ' may be the operative phrase.
Not certain what actual changes have taken place in our proposals to the EU and this may be just a game of charades and a bit of theatre Act 1 Part 11 of the blame game.
I intend to sell the shares that I bought previously at 145 before the end of the day and will be happy with the profit.
Make hay while the Sun shines.
ATVB
TMT hi,
Yes that does make sense in the longer term, and quite honestly who really knows what will happen. I just hope we all are rewarded at the end of the day for our patience and loyalty over the past 3 Years.
Have a great w/e and keep dry in this wind and rain !
ATVB
Tom :-)))))
@Tom 'Yes totally agree. I was referring to some that said it will have no effect to the housing sector as houses will always be in demand / required, but how wrong was that statement !'
I said something similar to that and I still don't think it is wrong. I don't think Brexit, whatever happens, is going to have a significant impact on the profitability of house-builders. It obviously will have a short term impact on share prices because they are driven by sentiment more than by profit right now. If they were driven by profit and payouts the prices would be double what they are.
But in the long term, people will still need houses, there will still be a housing shortage, those who have land and cash will be able to ride out any short term disruptions, and they will make money and their share prices will go up. Until we leave or cancel Brexit, there will be volatility. Once either happens the sentiment will turn and eventually match the profits. What happens with Brexit may determine how quickly sentiment turns, but it won't change the underlying fundamentals. The share price today is a mirage. It will either drop if there's no deal or surge if there is a deal or Brexit is cancelled. But it has nothing to do with whether the company makes money. Speculators / day traders are having their fun right now, that's all.
Profit sorry!
Nige hi again, your note made me laugh "If I was a day trader I would take profit soon and reinvest after Deal rejected"
What proffit is that :-)))
Nige hi,
Yes totally agree. I was referring to some that said it will have no effect to the housing sector as houses will always be in demand / required, but how wrong was that statement !
Maybe some good news on the horison though !!! SP looking good today up 4.8% :-))
Have a great W/E all, looks like a wet & windy one !
Tom :-)))
You're right Nige. Everyone is still posturing, no one wants to be blamed. We'll have bad news within 2-3 days, perhaps even today, then good news a few days later, and so on.
Everyone knows where their real red lines are and no one wants to say, because they want to get better than their actual red lines. So it's going to be back and forth. News yesterday, today, and tomorrow means nothing. We'll find out at the very last minute whether there will actually be a deal, an extension, no Brexit, or no deal. If I were a day trader I also would be taking profit today.
Hi Nige,
Which deal is that ?
I've only heard of proposals so far regards the withdrawal arrangement.
Might learn more today.
Ps
If I was a day trader I would take profit soon and reinvest after Deal rejected (by any of DUP, our Parlt or EU, or Vote of No Confidence). Nice to see Sp go up but don't think it will last - bumpy ride.
John Bercow has negotiated an extension if GE or 2nd Ref.
Hi Tom
The Brexit mess has been seriously affecting Builders Sp's since it was announced 6 months before Ref.
The table below assumes Per's return to Pre Brexit levels and the resultant Sp's assuming No Brexit.
What I did say (as TMT confirmed), was these projected prices are valid now even if No Deal confirmed.
The result of (No) Brexit only varies the time taken to reach these prices, by which time they will be worth more anyway. All are still increasing Eps.
Revised revision of target Prices if No Brexit. In the table below:
CSp Current Sp
JPer Justifiable Per my idea of what Per should be = Pre Brexit Per + or - a bit, as I see fit, (see comment).
LEps Last published EPS
CPer Current Per = CSp / LEps
TSp Target Sp = CSp * JPer / CPer
% Dif (TSp - CSp) / CSp * 100
Then:
Coy, CSp, JPer, LEps, CPer, TSp, % Dif
bdev, 587, 14.0, 73.2, 8.0, 1025, 74.6 - No Issues
rdw, 592, 11.5, 92.3, 6.42, 1061, 79.3 - Always behind others, and lost Chairman
bwy, 3200, 12.0, 423.4, 7.6, 5081, 58.8 - Always behind others, but Fin Res due soon
psn, 2063, 12.5, 283.3, 7.3, 3541, 71.7 - Major issues, qualty but addressing them
tw, 148, 12.0, 21.3, 6.9, 256, 72.7 - Quality Issues and Poor Int Res
All apart from bwy 70 to 80 % increase. I expect bwy to announce increased Eps (later today with FinRes), bringing it back in line with the others. This also highlights the fact that accurate numbers can only be produced twice per year (when EPS announced).
If you set up this Spreadsheet you will notice you can change CSp, but it makes no difference to TSp, only changing CPer and % Dif. The Target Sp is not dependant on current Sp.
As a daft idea input JPer of 22 or 30 for tw (as grg Per was). 469 or 639 if your SS is right.
Why grg has such a massively bigger Per than Bldrs, I have no idea, and as I said my numbers are based on Pre Brexit levels, which are hugely undervalued. As I have said, the Market has got it all wrong and generally, I would say Builders are worth more than double their current value.
Warren Buffet is all about value which will be realised, just need to be patient, and with these Divis !
Gotta lotta cash coming, rdw, tw and bdev (Nov), with bwy to follow (Jan) and psn (Mar).
BoL
Just got back myself before heavy showers.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2019/oct/10/donald-trump-news-impeachment-inquiry-live-nancy-pelosi-updates
Trumps also agreed to meet China for trade talks.
Off for a shower that I'm in control of.
ATB
Troubles hi,
Yes just got in from a good walk in the Sun but bit on the cold side. Just listened to the latest BBC news and yes !! lets hope something comes out of this. I remember someone on here saying that the mess has no effect to our SP how wrong that was. Just goes to show how the markets react !!!!!
ATB
Tom :-)))))))
Hi Tom,
12 inches I think or something I can my boot on.
Johnson and Varadkar see a path forwards - not sure how clear it is and may be a way to just avoid blame.
ATB
Somethings afoot, SP now up 2.88%, 148.20, will we see 1.50+ today, hope so. :-)))))))