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Hi Nige
Think your trying to write longer posts than that chap on Psn :)) more interesting though
Your divi remark was interesting
My growth stocks have risen strongly this past week well chuffed, my hydrogen stock has hit 50p
Hi owls
Miners need a resource report called a Jorc which is difficult and expensive to achieve and not many get one. Ggp are in a position where they're not having to pay for it or doing the work . With a Jorc the market will take notice
With oil stocks they need a competent person report cpr , very expensive not only to prove the resource but have the infrastructure and finance to extract it before one is issued.
I hope that clears that up for you
ATB:))
Hi Nige,
Need to be careful - people get arrested these days for such a comment.
Dark forces generally work to prevent a situation where our country will be ruled by extremists (fascist or communist).
Brexit has enabled Tories to stay in power for far too long on a divide and rule basis and is generally an Eton mess.
Creating chaos everywhere in order that people will accept anything to get out of it appears to be the present strategy.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-recession-graphic/stretched-households-could-mean-lengthy-uk-downturn-if-it-comes-idUKKBN1W11FV
Ps
A Great Big Bomb!
Hi Troubles
Iran / Saudi going Pear shaped. MadMen in control of UK, US and Russia The times they are A'Changing!
Can't do much about any of that, but unless a total disaster it should not affect Builders value at least, if not Sp.
Did you notice my reply to Tom regarding % Divi return since Brexit? Surely this proves my idea that the market has got it all wrong (again). I remember you said (a long time ago) if you can see why / where the market is wrong, you can make money out of that. Imagine that is WB rule No 1.
Hardly surprising since you and me are part of the market and some others have very different points of view (far better off not trading with anyone at all ...)
Anyway, Imho Bercow won't let a disaster happen, and I think he has probably cleared a course of action with EU. As a result of that I think No Brexit more probable than ever (60% ?)
Last point, conspiracy theory. Cons have lost all credibility since DC called Ref (and lost), so a fall guy was needed (TM, trying to get a Deal), didn't work so 2nd fall guy, (BoJo, going for No Deal but lost). All part of the plan? Then who is running this, Masons, Majestic 12, Knights Templar ??? BoJo still lying - no chance of a Deal so cannot Brexit - ie he will have to get an extension, or revoke article 50. Not too surprising, cos he does that all the time!
At least Labour has lost all credibility as well (with Corbyn). Hope the Knights have a good idea for a solution to this mess.
Meant to be a short note but I get carried away at this time of night - BoL
I don't really have an opinion one way or the other. I tend to follow the market and I just wondered why the market in general is pessimistic.
Sounds the same with Tw then
Newcrest who are doing and paying for the drilling don't share your pessimism they're powering full steam ahead
The market doesn't seem to share your optimism. Good luck anyway.
Hi owls
There's no problem it's looking more and more appealing, their drilling like mad to prove the resource.
Happy days :))
Hi Tom, Is there a problem with GGP, they are down 30% since the high earlier in the year?
Hi Bamps
Just invested rest of float in bdev and bwy. Unless a political disaster, I expect all builders will be up tomorrow.
Hi Tom
Just Calcd my Divis as % age of total:
2016 10%, 2017 20%, 2018 28%, 2019 42%.
Obviously, Brexit has had a massive affect on Builders?!
BoL
Bamps hi,
Yes you were right about the "nervous start today " wow back down 2.16%, I give up.
Cheers
Tom
Hi Ben
I'm still hoping for another offer, a poster on that board told me the £100m is long term loan but I'm not sure on that
Whatever happen I won't hold on to Bovis shares
Construction margins are always low it's the Quantity Surveyors job to get betterment with sub-contractors and buyers with materials
Profits from alterations and instructions from architects and clients can be huge, Which is where Gfrd have a £56m claim
I'm holding on to mine, great 35p divi
Never any news like this with Tw
Good morning bamps thank you for a having a look and your view on it . So it looks like the straight £ 9 offer was a better one for the share holders. By the looks off things and general talk on site is the £300 million will be eaten up in debt with a few mill left over basically starting with a clean sheet, but that doesn’t fill me with much hope they will do anything when there director said last year some time ago they were pricing blue chip contracts at 1% profit not a lot of room to manoeuvre but hey hopefully there will be another offer bol
Hi troubles, Nige
Looks like it going to be a nervous start today Asian and Indian stocks are down, Rightmove have issued news that September new house sales have stalled and the sharp rise in oil price
Head in sand here today :))
Going to keep my eye on my little oil stocks Cerp been doing great last week , ukog likely to rise also gold prices have risen looking good there too
ATB:))
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/oil-soars-after-saudi-facility-attacks-weak-china-data-hits-shares-idUKKBN1W00W9
Trumps ' locked and loaded ' along with our so-called PM as he meets Juncker - pathetic.
Hi Nige,
Buffet once quoted ' I'd be a bum in the street with a tin cup if the markets were efficient '.
The one sure thing is that we're all going to end up underground (with a few flowers hopefully) or polluting the atmosphere soon enough - wonder if our SP will be affected by all that oil burning away, who knows ?
Interesting week ahead but going to take advantage of the good weather that's been forecast - hope it's correct.
ATB
Hi Bamps
I create my own plan (via my system), which is based on the published accounts and my feel for the Coys I invest in, completely independently of rampers / derampers and actual Sp movement.
Don't always get it right. Sometimes I disregard some points that the market thinks is important. Recently drop in bdev Sp after FinRes, while my calcs say they are worth 700 now (cur 659), so investing part of cash there, and rest in bwy (Pre FinRes, which I expect to be good).
Much easier to study a few company's in detail rather than a lot, hoping to consolidate profits on a rise in Sp. As you say profits can be made out of people investing on (unjustified) Sp momentum. Or, to put it another way, the market is never right - it is always wrong. If this was not the case WB would not have done so much better than us.
On another note, there is so much land owned by Councils, Govt and particularly MoD, which (on release), could destroy the value of builders land banks the big builders hold. But does that matter? Many years ago the Russians released so much softwood it made a lot of forestry companies go bust (in Canada and Scandinavia). 2nd time they did that Japs bought the lot, and didn't affect the price of soft wood at all (but they got it cheap). To put it another way if Govt is going to saturate the market with land, who is going to buy it?
Btw - forgot to mention, roof to be covered with turf and flowers (to make it underground) and look pretty, besides extra insulation. Might not need planning permission either! Pretty daft though.
BoL
Hi troubles
It would probably make Buffet more money if investors didn't diversify, profiteering out of others bad luck
I never listen to derampers for that reason
ATB:))
Hi Nige
That's not daft I built a 6 storey car park by jacking it up one floor after another
Hi Ben
I've had my lad look at the Bovis/Gallifords merger
He said from a Gfrd shareholder point of view it looks a good deal but said it looks like a fire sale.
Lost me with the figures but the £100m is to cover short term loans, there are 2 other figures of long term loans totalling £1.7bn , I tried finding that again doh.
He said it looks like they couldn't cover the short term loan and needed to sell quickly
He said hold on there's no way it will go to 80p it's a good deal even if it looks like Bovis have got a very cheap deal and no wonder their price has shot up.
Gfrd still a good hold with £2.2bn turnover
C'monPR get yer petty cash out :))
They must be in line for Boris bridge between Scotland and Ireland:))
Hi Bamps
I agree with you about putting garages under the house. Foundations are wasted space as is the attic - not far off doubling the usable area for the same frontage.
Daft idea: Since most accidents on site caused by gravity, why not build them on the ground (out of reinforced concrete) and jack them up (or even prefabs). Then fit doors windows in the gables. No need for craftsmen (brickies etc), result - build more, faster. Don't even have to pay rates cos it's not a house, it's a cave! Everyone a winner.
Also I agree never put all your eggs in 1 basket. I (always) hold (at least) 5 builders. Not worried about a disaster cos no signs of one. There are lots of signs that things are going pear shaped, but the main indicator is ease of selling houses, determined by difference between supply / demand. Don't think this will change much in my lifetime. And then there is Cash held and margins - even if big 3 stopped building entirely for a year, they will still be OK
BoL
Hi Bamps,
Preserve or Protect wealth - think they basically mean the same.
His quote mentions wide diversification - guess it's all a question of having detailed knowledge of a particular sector which in turn gives confidence re: risk taking.
The stupid old bloke has managed to outshine me regards outcomes in investment strategies - maybe that's why I don't like him so much.
BoL
Hi Nige
Standard house types are easy to build but they destroy the identities of towns and villages
3 storey town houses cramped together with nowhere to park on once green and pleasant land
There is no originality on design anymore.
If I was designing I would put the cars underground and do away with the roads making more green space, houses could have a bigger foot print and more houses per site
Rant over
ATB:))
Hi troubles
I can tell you now that diversification is the only way to protect your hard earned savings what a stupid statement from that old bloke
From first hand experience of not diversifying having built up a large holding in Bryant's and then Taylor Woodrow I watched in disbelief it fall from £5 to 4p and possible bust. It happened very quickly and with little work years left to get it back
I will never ever put myself in that position again , so as I said what a stupid statement
Hi Troubles
Interesting to note BoJo is going to "rush in a Deal with EU in 10 days" according to MSN. I cannot believe EU is negotiating anything (ie TM Deal), and see no reason why Parlt should accept it now. Anyway, still all up in the air, so who can say?
Still think we are on the way to No Brexit, and from the markets reaction last week, I think that is what they think as well.
John Bercow has been in Europe for talks. Bit worrying, I thought his role was more that of a referee, but probably the only MP Euros can trust, because of his sincerity, and his idea of protecting democracy.
Hi Bamps
When Steve Morgan came back to rdw as chairman, he insisted they reintroduce all the changes they had omitted when he was CEO, that made rdw homes a bit special. This (and his return) turned the company around, but he's retired again.
Standard house types are much easier to build, but still more variation than there used to be. Also, you cannot have almost infinite variation (as in car specs), cos the estates could end up looking a mess.
BoL