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https://www.tpgroupglobal.com/news-events-and-insights/press-releases/tpgroup-powers-the-uks-first-full-scale-hydrogen-train
They certainly were not that long ago. Wouldn't be surprised they'd pulled out subsequently tho. Sorry for not being bothered to do more research, I was only fishing for reasons for the rise on that particular day.
A single mention of hydrogen in the annual report. Page 66. In relation to submarine air systems.
So I think it's safe to say it's not involved in any such development.
It was a year ago (on 3 September 2021) that SAG withdrew their offer for TPG. What's the betting we'll see a RNS on Mon 5 September with either: a revised offer; directorate change; major sell out (by M&G or Cannacord); or increased holding by SAG?
https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/transport/huge-scotrail-train-orders-in-pipeline-to-create-all-green-fleet-3811424
Is TPG still involved with development of hyrogen trains?
Is something brewing? Big trades today.
SAG sitting on massive loss in exchange for a minority holding with IMO little/no chance of turning things round and getting their investment back. IMO looks like a disaster for them ...
Reading Cenkos' analysis they say: We believe that satisfactory resolution of the company’s financing needs could act as a positive catalyst for the share price. However a bag of a fag packet calculation:
31/12/21 = £5.4m cash
HSBC Debt = -£7.0m
Shortfall = -£1.6m
Feb 22 Sapienza sold for £2m. £1m used to repay HSBC.
So we now have £0.4m net cash?? So what crisis? Do we not have a "positive catalyst" staring us in the face?! Joking aside, the September update should give some colour to how the ground lies. Much of the 2021 cash flow won't repeat in 2022 so there's a very good chance the coming 14 months are sufficient to keep cashflow neutral and be debt free.
Next problem is onerous contracts:
2021 Marine Margin 1%. 3 contracts are onerous. One of the 3 is 64% complete and ends 2027. Unclear about the other 2. Efforts underway to renegotiate. 2022 Trading update - behind target. At a guess there's a likely outcome of something between b/even and a -£2m loss for 2022.
2021 Service Margin 26%, 14% organic growth to £25.6m revenue; 2022 update - slightly behind but expected to recover. Assuming a further 14% growth and 2% margin growth could see a £2.9-£3.1m Op Profit.
Before you get too excited central costs will net that to near zero. That's a realistic case.
Of course there's a pessimistic case you can make..... and there's also an optimistic case where Key Defence Suppliers need to be safeguarded and a renegotiation is successful (i.e. if TPG went bust that creates disruption). Defence spending is going up and TPG is almost unique in this vertical, to not be enjoying a boon from the revival of Defence priorities.
To conclude, trying to piece together the 2022 picture out of the 2021 accounts has given me a right headache. I can see why the analysts copped out and said "there remains insufficient visibility to support forecasts for FY22."
What I can see however is a glimmer of hope. I can see how a lot of incompetence has been flushed through and a leaner, cleaner, sensible TPG is emerging. The Science Group people are not "nice". They won't throw a bone to TPG let a lone a loan. The £50k a quarter service charge for admin and £150k arrangement fee is taking their pound of flesh. However, you cannot fault the way they have cleaned the mess that came before and clearly it was what TPG needed. There's a good chance they cannot manufacture a crisis to "take the whole thing over". Clearly they a sitting on a large loss from their purchase of 27.8% of TPG at a 5p ish level (75% loss so £8-£9m maybe?)
The other ray of hope is simply that people who work there are happy. This was the reason I didn't sell up. I've monitored the glassdoor feedback since SAG's involvement and only found positives.
https://www.glassdoor.co.uk/Reviews/TP-Group-Reviews-E1697672.htm
GLA
After all this time, still no news as to how it will adjust or exit the loss making Maritime projects - why ? In addition, net debt rising at alarming rate. IMO cannot go on like this, something has got to give.
The Services business did well; when you take out the exceptional costs (assuming we don't golden parachute another CEO out this year) then TPG would have made a profit... just.
Lots of kitchen sinking and feels cleaner as a result.
Tgp is waking up . Let’s hope so . Gla
Apologies, reading SAG's update today the 12 month break is 3rd September not 29th Oct as I said before. If SAG bid before then they'd have to offer 6.5p (but could still bid). The analyst's view is that they won't move to takeover until the onerous contracts issue is resolved. Of particular note is that SAG trades on a EV/Sales of 2x and TPG is on an EV/Sales of 0.22 (suggesting of course a price of around 13p for TPG could be "fair value" longer term)
SAG has £48.9m of cash (i.e. a net cash position of £23.9m, and an undrawn £25m RCF). At current 1.5p SP TPG's EV is £15m. So SAG could "afford" 4.5p if it chose to - and still unlock 3X value based on the 2X sales multiple.
4.5p would still be painful, however it provides a perspective on where the negotiation lines sit (particularly I suppose for the II's). And how it's a possible 2 bagger from today's price for any new buyers?!
GLA
Been here forever and then some. Yep 6.5p in SAG shares will have me.
The way I look at this SAG have lost £7m-£8m in the value of its purchases of TPG at 5-6p. It would appear to me that they are tackling recent and old legacy issues (overseas acquisitions and onerous contracts). They want to buy this once fixed - not before.
Once these challenges are resolved and this is improving we will see a rerun of the takeover. (there must be a 12 month break which is 3 months away (29th Oct)). This will be because it's highly unlikely that shareholders will recognise the value but SAG will (they are the core of the TPG management team!!). If they offer 6.5p in SAG shares then I think most if not all will accept. If it's a lower offer then I just don't know but even the offer of say 5p will be more than triple from today's SP. Not great for long term holders like me but someone buying in today is laughing. I expect not many people are long term holders still?
TPG is in a great position for today's dangerous world and I have much more confidence in the new management team, but this share has required patience, a lot of patience.
GLA
Despite all the awful news, is the maritime focused group worth a punt at these levels ? LOL but seriously, 1.5p looks tempting ...
Who know but I would like this debacle put to bed asap and moving on with positive newsflow .
With today's RNS, the prospects are looking even worse than I thought they would be when I sold out at 5.5p just prior to the management changes. I'm sorry for those that have stayed with what was once a substantial group.
But with the new Board blaming the Maritime section, is this a ruse to lead the sp even lower so the largest holder can pick up the company on the cheap ?
Yes unpopular tho the thought is here, the shareholders who supported the 2 SAG directors to the TPG board would be v disaapointed to see TPG SP driven down to low ball offer territory. The recent negative update and little news since then hasn't done much to reaasure more sceptical investors tho...
This chat has gone quiet - no news. All waiting for a low ball offer? But 4 institutions still own over 40% of the equity. I'm not sure they'll allow a very low offer. Any thoughts?
"TPG has not released its results for the period ended 31 December 2021. A loss after tax of £1.1 million has been included within the Science Group Income Statement, which is an estimate based on TPG reported information and public statements, proportionate to the Group's 28% shareholding and the duration for which TPG was accounted as an associate."
...mentions TPG. Nothing substantial but may be of interest to shareholders here.
I certainly hope our experts are working hard on any MOD projects which may help the poor people of Ukraine.
Thought the European/Russian situation would help tpg's SP.
But I suppose we'll only hear about any improvement in trading after the SAG's Trojan horses have done their work & tpg is no longer an independent entity.
I came out earlier - and I'm grateful it was above 5p then - but even so I made horrible losses on this one and as you guys have alluded to, this bad financial position is a charade - amazing that SAG can get away with it but it looks they will play out the poor reporting to span the year from the last share purchases - so they can offer a lower price.
But I'm surprised they feel they will keep their consultants - I would have thought some, if not all of them, will be getting itchy feet unless they're contractually bound to TPG ?
Yes, update could have been a lot more balanced.
Sure tpg isn't in a great place due to legacy issues but what about the other parts of the business?
How's consulting going?
This update only serves SAG's agenda.
Radius I think what was worse was that people and SAG's cheerleaders (they know who they are) were adamant this would not happen and voted along with SAG. Shot themselves and us in the foot. If David Lindsay was still in control the update would read very different not saying it would have been good but it could have been balanced. No actual substance to this update. What was the revenue at the end of 2021, what is the current orderbook value? Lopsided reporting... impairments, exceptions, paper losses, provisions and intangible write downs are only part of the story and just pointing to the bogeyman under the bed. If you take the update at face value TPG didn't trade in 2021 and no inclination of 2022 when we are in February.
It's disgusting what Martyn Ratcliffe is doing here and only a fool could look at what's happening and see that the only shareholders he's concerned about are that of SAG. The usual suspects will appear to defend or point blame elsewhere. This isn't kitchen sinking it's a clear intent to destroy value.
It gives me no pleasure because like no doubt the rest of us I'm sitting on a significant loss but fatoomch here goes... I told you so. Leopards don't change their spots after all.