George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
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Yes you're right.
Rather than cheap.. Inexpensive is the better word.
The proposal for the current pipeline is estimated to cost between $3-4/barrel - based on 2020 target volumes and cost.
I don't think word cheap should be used when talking about Kenya pipeline.
Almost 900km over challenging terrain in some areas + you need to build a jetty and dredge a huge area for tankers to dock. Its not for Tullow to develop thats for sure, it has to be sold or farm out, if not agreed already.
Rather interesting how Kenya will play out.
$5m CAPEX spend in 2021 to come up with a more attractive development plan.
The Kenya pipeline is already as cheap as it can be.
There are also no plans to combine development phases to provide a low cost per barrel.
Tullow will likely accelerate low cost producing wells (similar to what they are doing with Ghana) at Kenya. But wouldn't really make that much of a difference in the overall picture. However, will reduce costs per barrel in first phase of the development.
Likely buyer still CNOOC.
could it be that they might also be waiting for first drilling results..
...and don't forget Rahul knows Kenya assets very well given his time at Delonex, let alone building a very low cost pipeline in India.
There are a number of permutations for Kenya eg complete exit, keep whole or farm done which then all in turn play into the refi workstream. I would have preferred to have done the bridge refi with a bolt on financing for Kenya. I am sure they looked at the scenarios and felt they had the time until end H1 to refi only what they needed rather than being locked in for a facility which was too large or small for their needs, especially as the liquidity markets still frothy, especially in US where lots where they have a lot of money to put to work....not long now for LTHs, landscape will become clearer in 6-7 weeks max, which is not long given the past 15 mths!
That would be quite funny, as Kenya will hopefully be valued significantly higher than when he was in charge.
I would even bet that Paul Mcdade and his vehicle will have already be in contact about TLW's assets, would they be interested in Kenya? No idea, but plausible as not too difficult to join dots on pure speculation :-D
Scrod,
Thank you for that input. Uni, as for Kenya -the reworking will take time and if a few extra $ per barrel can become profit, then that makes a huge difference, but I don't want to get too confident yet.
Who knows but if the intention was to sell Kenya then unless there's already a letter of intention already in place with a third party why would you risk A. Demonstrating to the market that you can't afford to develop it and B. Leaving Kenya to force you out of the licences... Both resulting in you getting less in any potential sale and going against the current principle of value accretive deals only. I believe there is either a deal to sell or farm down already in place or TLW intends to develop with the largest stake, the alternative option of just seeing how it pans out doesn't strike me as something Rahul or anybody with sense would do.
Could it simply be the Kenya development proposals are good to go but can't be moved forward until the rbl is finalised and this in turn is why the agm is later than anticipated.
GLA.
JMAX, agree... I know it's a case of some of the wiser heads on here putting 1+1 together but with $1B of liquidity headroom 2021 maturities due later this year are covered ($300M). Plenty of time to refinance before future RBL determinations, maintaining a headroom to cover the test for the 2022 maturities. So no immediate need to refinance unless you need additional credit lines, a more suitable repayment timeline, a reworked RBL with less restrictive covenants, or a reduced coupon for some future big spends and the Kenyan development plan needs submitting before the end of Q2. Coincidence... possibly.
I thought for a long time the intention would be to sell Kenya, and they may still do if they don't secure a favourable re-finance deal but the bottom line is TLW does not need to refinance immediately with oil where it is. Plenty of time before 2024 becomes an issue and the board seem to think they will be producing much more then, than they are today. So why the rush to refinance now, possibly to save a few million here or there but I'm of the belief this is to sure up finances for a geniune field development proposal to the Kenyan government this year. If TLW does not have an agreed proposal with Kenya by the end of the year it will be sold or significantly farmed down so another party has the largest stake.
This kind of skulduggery will result in bad Karma biting one's derrière sooner or later, somewhere along the path.
Jeffries have been the most downbeat broker for a long time, they have upgraded this year from 13p to 38p.
The analyst covering Tullow has been quoted in the FT and debt is clearly at the forefront of their rating. The share is being ridden down on the current lack of news. DM your constant posting suggests to me and everyone with sense that you are watching intently. I really hope that you get caught out when the refinancing RNS is released as you truly are undeserving of any benefit from a potential rise in the SP. Shameless daily parasitic antics, for once I 100% agree with Happy. I feel for anybody who bought or sold based on either your ramping or de-ramping. You are truly a morally bankrupt despicable character.
yes but SP average goes up
DM,
It doesn't seem to be public knowledge that Kenya is being reworked - that's the game changer.
43M out on loan -4M increase.
Funny how these Goldman Sachs notifications come down the line exactly as we get a price upgrade from a broker...
Just a coincidence probably...
It means that Goldman Sachs feeds off others like a parasite...
GS is lending more shares to shorters. Does it means that some good news coming out from Tlw and the shorters want to ram it down to prevent Tlw shares going up so they can buy back cheap?