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The drop has been absolutely brutal for long term holders but the SP being at such an irrationally low level compared to assets and revenues only serves to further expectations of a recovery to a more sensible price range. Looking at other examples where this level of punishment has happened we can reasonably expect 3 -6 months for a recovery to begin. At the end of the day the company has strong revenues even at 75K bpd and as difficult as it appears today, getting rid of the bad quality management will likely see Tullow in a much better position in two years than it would have been if he'd been allowed to stay on.
Reading some of the comments & knowing my own situation, if/when this ever gets back to a decent price...I'm out. Not just on TLW but on the stock market for good.
Most of us will be well down on this (probably more than an annual salary). Over the few years I've been dabbling on the stock market I'm overall down. If I had put that money into my pension for 1 of my providers to invest it would have been substantially up.
Oct 2018 I had grown my portfolio to 136k, currently low 40s! When it goes down & down like this I (& a few others) either trade the stock or sell ay a loss hoping to recoup that loss elsewhere (e.g. Mrd).
I had a reply to my email from TLW today telling me the things I'd highlighted (CEO, sale of assets etc) were all being worked on, but that these things take time.
GLA...this has been one hell of a rocky road & one which I'll be glad to get off, perhaps in a year or 2!
Good point hey_arnold and advice followed. Jaffjoon has joined the growing list of oxygen thieves whose comments will be replaced by a green box.
Thrump,
Look at it this way if you throw more money in yes you average down but you also increase your risk exponentially, sometimes the hardest thing to do is to do nothing but its the best risk management strategy.
All the best
Thrump you can block them, click on share chat then filters then type their name in.
I have to agree with you on that one Thrump.
I have a significant amount of money tied up in Tullow and watching this fall so rapidly a number of weeks ago made me feel physically sick. My view is that the value has gone down but I will only lose my money if I sell which I simply cannot afford to do. At the moment I haven't got any further funds to invest and am therefore sitting tight waiting for some positive news from the BOD that may influence the share price. I could have increased my stock holding by selling at peak and purchasing as the share value dipped. My only fear here was getting it wrong and losing more money.
It does annoy me when certain idiots post comments about there wish for the share price to fall and that they have a secret signal that we should wait for, this behaviour is simply pathetic..............So Yes Leer75 I'm sick of Jaffoon and if I could block his / hers post then I would
Jaff
Is anyone getting sick of this idiot yet! Thousands of people are down significantly and comments like his only confirm idiots and morons are taking over! Personally I put in 10k and 42 on the initial drop. This company is way oversold but the rise may take longer than we think. Metro is another example of this. The fact that it’s hovering round mid to low 40s is positive, given the amount of institutional share holders. Once they have fully stopped reducing your liabilities we should see a steady rise up. It’s going to take months not weeks. It isn’t going bust with these assets. GLA DYOR
Normally drop it at 9:30 when all the posh coffee slurping buffoons arrive at the boiler rooms in their pointy brown shoes.
JMAX, BDEV was one of the shares that i bought 10000 of them at less than 400, OCDO i had 15000 of them at just over 200 and look at those now, made money on both of them, but if i had kept them WELL.
Noggers,
I know that feeling. Most days I get stuck in traffic outside a car showroom, I look in and think 'that's overpriced' - then I remember I'm more than the price of this car down in TLW. Sit tight and you will double your money.
A slightly different scenario, but look at house builders in 2008, I think BDEV was at 48p - it's over 800p now.
Like I said JMAX on my original investment 10 years ago i am down less than 10k, but when you have been up nearly 30k it just pixxxx you off a bit.
Swings and roundabouts though.
Tony,
after reading that post I want to buy more!
What we do know is that coronavirus is behaving more like the usual influenza virus. The initial wave of infection from animal to human was far more toxic than human to human spread.
We also know the Kenya blocks are up for sale, and recently the bank managing this has seen its own stock value rise. Modelling a sale of this asset or part of it de-risks the company on many fronts. We also know the gas flaring of the Ghana field stabilises the oil reservoirs and ensures the 75,000 barrel targets and removes/lowers a risk of a negative surprise. We know a major equity holder is confident about what the company is doing. We also know the company is maintain profitability and cost cutting.
I think an average of 70p in a company like this is nothing to worry about. I wouldn't sell and definitely not before the March update.
Ps You are in a better position than me
JMAX I am all in here, apart from a couple of other shares which I have with a small amount, I only play about with shares just as a hobby really since retirement, I could transfer more funds over but I won't do.
If for some reason TLW went bust I would Finnish with share trading.
From my original stake of 50k 10 years ago I have been up and down.
Some of the shares I have bought in the past if I had held on to them I would have made a lot of money, but I like to buy and sell. But I am stuck with this until it starts to move up.
I keep thinking every day to sell and move on, but when it moves up a little I think this might be the bottom.
We are ship without a captain - only a positive RNS will change the sentiment and direction. Noggers, will you buy more shares ?
I just can't understand why it is never going up, when every day this week oil has gone up, i know oil is not everything, but i have never known a share to go south nearly every day like this.
Here we go.. get ready to buy . Drop on its way. Waite for my signal.