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Only just noticed this, why did they six months, they could have said 1 month and then extended. 6 months state of emergency just seems over the top.
MM I see there were a few typos around my Colm sentence, but isn't that exactly what I said?
"He'd have got the money then and there" - is the clue.
Here is a song that is fitting!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxMZpNF3qN0
Brad - not sure what we do without you!
However - Colm Cloonan's excitement back at the end of November, the 'tantalisingly close' comment, was as much to do with the proximity of funding as the PPA. The funding actually came this February in a $80m Line of Credit from the Africa Development Bank to the Botswanan Development Corporation, and our portion is working its way through their processes.
However, and this explains CC's excitement in November, the LoC was held up in December by the Botswana Parliament.
Anyway the monies are and have been ready for disbursement for some weeks now, and the arrival of our PPA will very likely have crystallised the interest rate structure - in TLOU's favour, obviously. I am told on very good authority that the Botswanan departments remain open and operating, albeit remotely in these peculiar times.
Very likely we can expect news any day - as shown by that blockbuster purchase of 3m shares (£128k) on Thursday at a 20% premium to the market.
Read all about it here:
http://www.mmegi.bw/index.php?aid=83819&dir=2019/december/13
http://www.mmegi.bw/index.php?aid=84679&dir=2020/march/02
And
https://twitter.com/TlouEnergy/status/1201246750641721344
I was in ICU for a few days last year and the main difference , apart from the equipment that is available and isolation rooms etc, is one for one car - you get your own nurse at your bedside.
Boris would have that wherever he was so I think it was easier to take him to the ventilators rather than the opposite (which might have denied ICU patients their use).
Good that he is back on the ward (private room I bet).
The government are locked at home or in safe houses so I am not sure how they are functioning.
But it is very comforting that our Minister Moagi has grasped the importance of us getting funding to survive. Omho he pushed the PPA through for no other reason than to allow BDC to see us right. Colm was failing to hold back his excitement about funding on Nov 27th - ihe have got the money then and there if we'd had a PPA. We did not have the PPA because the gas flows were insufficient to support 10Mw - hence their importance.
The masterstroke of an interim PPA which we have enough gas for - in fact that amount of gas dictates what is in the PPA imho - will bear fruit any day now , again imho.
To pinch a line from John Lennon .... All I am saying is ... once we have a PPA then all TG's plans are smack on course! That is all I have ever said - it is very straightforward - but only if you believe in Tony's approach which I do 100%.
Bummer that the virus was needed to force him into the interim PPA , and having sorted it , will now delay us again. GG getting Mr Moagi's personnel phone number is worth a lot of money in this lockdown. Good on GG!
They were already in a 28 day state of emergency and now extended to 6 month. Will not make no difference to Tlou...they were awarded an interim PPA during the 28 day state of emergency so the wheels of government are still turning. In fact the article states opposition parties argued that the state of emergency gives the government power to makes decisions unilaterally and lead to tender irregularities. If award of the interim PPA is anything to go by, could this be an opportunity for the government to now move on the PPA? More than ever Covid has highlighted the need for Bots to have proper infrastructure in place and a stable power supply is key within that.
6 month state of emergency. Not sure if that's a 6-month lock down though.
https://city-press.news24.com/News/covid-19-botswana-parliament-endorses-6-month-state-of-emergency-20200409
Donk is dumb, and has been struck dumb it seems. Double dumb , our next Eurovision song?
I was expecting some comment following the Orapa link.
It seems obvious that Donk and Whizzer are convinced a PPA can be issued even if there is no gas flows .
It appears to be based on the 2012 experience with KE/Tuma Energy, known as KES, who let that process down!
Without that charade I reckon we might have had a PPA on the go long ago , ready to sign asap!
A patient in the hospital (just over a year ago) told me that Botswana's wealth from diamonds is so great that nobody in Botswana needs to work (except diamond miners? I neve asked).
He worked all over Africa and rated the Botswana Government extremely highly.
Needless to say, I told him about my interest in TLOU and he knocked me back by doubting the need for CBM power!
He said that Africa was heavily into hydro-electricity which was borne out by a link on here the other day!
I cannot recall the context but hydro was singled out to be excluded from the argument. But it gave the impression hydro was applicable way north of Serowe.
The patient was very old so I hoped hewas going back a few decades and was out of touch in his retirement in the UK.
If only the people who arrived from a trip round the world, (Thailand, UK and Botswana), have tested positive, I am confused why Pres. Massisi has come out of quarantine. It suggests there have been no new cases?
Surely he hasn't had it and is now regarded as 'safe' ?
Whizzer, I am starting to think you are Donk in disguise.
From that link yesterday, Botswana issued a PPA way back (before 2012) for CBM at Orapa (180Mw).
It has only ever used diesel since then.
Why would Eric's ministry doubt the claims there is abundant CBM in Botswana?
Why did Eric demand proof before he'd commit to an immediate ramping of CBM as the major source of power?
Orapa CBM is the obvious answer!
Having issued a PPA 8 years ago with sfa returns from it , does it seem likely they'll issue another one without proof?
Proof is nowhere near 8 years away - virus permitting, it could be this year - and was expected before now.
The temporary/intermediate PPA ,that has been side-lined due to the virus, that Mr Moagi ordered BPC to start on was a wonderful vote of confidence in CBM.
Flares show gas is flowing, the high volume water suggest there is a lot more gas to come , it all makes sense?
IG quote has been 1.511p for several days and ASX 3.9c ( 1.921p) looks very settled too.
Botswana government will pay 50% of staff salaries for affected companies.
https://ewn.co.za/2020/04/02/botswana-brings-in-more-measures-to-ease-financial-burden-during-lockdown
Very kind of you to apologise Whizzer, although there's no need to.
We'll see what they do now. I still think that the key issue for Tlou is to secure funding. An initial loan of $10m if they can get it, will see them through this and out to the other side. What I don't know is how long they have to last before they run out of current funds. It was originally up to H2, and now there has been a small cut in overhead by the board which will give a small extention. I can't see them cutting local staff wages, so they will need funding.
A couple of sentences at the end of their Q1 stating their financing plan for the rest of they year would be ideal. And by that it would need to be more than 'talks with BDC/Barclays'.
Best of luck Wizzer. I'll not be selling at such a low price. If they can get credit for the remainder of the year, then I'd say they would by a buy again. But I won't consider this a buy until something concrete comes out.
Damo, I apologise you were correct.
It’s difficult to see a positive outcome for tlou now, how are they going to obtain funding, complete disaster for 3 years and now we’ll be looking at a project being pushed back to god knows when even if they did somehow manage to get a deal which I doubt very much now. I wish the bots people well in their battle with this virus.
Cant see tlou coming back from this, my only solace is tg will lose a lot of money from this shambles.
Now they are about to go on lock down, we'll see what this does to Tlou's timeline and share price.
https://africa.cgtn.com/2020/03/31/botswana-declares-emergency-confirms-first-3-cases-of-covid-19/
"Whilst the state of public emergency is in place, Masisi said there shall also be “extreme social distancing commencing on April 2, 2020 at midnight for a period of 28 days” because it is in the best interest of the nation."
"According to Masisi, all individuals across the country will be expected to adhere to a more severe form of social distancing and movement out of the home is only for those performing essential services and transporting essential goods during this period of extreme lockdown."
Sure - scare tactics.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-botswana/botswana-records-first-three-cases-of-coronavirus-health-minister-idUKKBN21H32B
If they drew up a PPA today here is the likely outcome.
Initial PPA
=========
0Mw at , say $18p to $30 per unit , Total = SFA
Starting date of supply = Battle of Hastings thru to next Xmas .... immaterial for 0 Mw
Duration of supply - unknown but good news, TLOU can supply SFA forever!
Botswana compensation for cost of distribution = tba once complete - 'current' ly zero - pick your own price per unit.
Dates of additional supplies = unknown .... subject to commercial gas flows being achieved and other delays (coronavirus)
Revised PPA addendum
==========
x Mw where x is unknown but depends upon the certified gas flow rate
Start date .... unknown but is subject to finding generators, distribution gear and healthy labourers
etc etc etc
Appointment of assessors
======================
Deadline for their appointment ... unknown - the bog cleaner has reviewed the above on their behalf - no action required
Conclusion.
Botswana CBM power is not dependent on gas flows in order to produce a PPA, a poster named Donk will draw up the PPA because he is the only person who can. There is a temporary delay of some years however. He picked up a table mat with "Please turn over" written on both sides - and he is still reading it, between repeating his latest novel to date.
"If demonstration of commercial gas flows was a Govt requirement of the RFP, then Tony would have said this very clearly and very explicitly long before now."
Why TG chose Donk as his biographer I don't know!
Perhaps Donk wrote this song - it must be about ST Tony :O)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OaWuVk3Mg4
Now what could have been in the REQUEST FOR PROPOSAL that I haven't considered .... given it is has been alive and well for quite some time , 97Mw to Sekaname, agreed, 3Mw to TLOU agreed, job done! UCMIU!
I am done with ADVFN ... but at least one of their posters gave me a pointer to DCT motorcycles. If only global warming lived up to its name, I'd be able to ride it! Almost April and I am frozen most of the time!
Botswana are very fortunate that the virus hasn’t made it way there yet, the way it’s affecting the world is awful. Hopefully people will come out the other side of this with a different perspective of things that really matter. I take it you’ve heard nothing from the bod on the ppa.
Indeed Whizzer.
Botswana is one of a number of countries in Africa, and in a belt around the world, where the incidence of Coronavirus is very low or, as is the case with Botswana currently, none existent.
Informed people speculate that this is down to the routine use of chloroquine as an anti-malarial drug - and which is now being prescribed, reluctantly, across more advanced countries to cure COVID.
I think Botswana has 0 cases so far but nice scare tactics.
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/03/27/coronavirus-africa-preparedness-rising-covid-19-infections/5076620002/
The above is an interesting article about the state of some of the African countries regarding their ability to deal with Covid-19. I certainly expect countries such as Botswana announcing a lock down or severe restrictions on what people can do. That will likely hit the share price again, and cause further delays to funding, PPA and power line/power station construction.