The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I agree. There should be no reason now why Tlou can't give a project timeline with deliverables followed by monthly updates showing exactly how and when they will go from explorer to producer.
I really hope we do get a full schedule of work in January. I'm most interested in poles and wires, drilling and substation. I don't think it's too much to ask now. We have held on for years, and now this is coming to fruition having the confidence to show a plan that they can stick to, with timelines would be really helpful.
Thornback, I'm with you on this one. I think there is just a 'meh whatever' attitude to any plans they state. The plan they gave is very woolly indeed although at least it's something. Over the past few years I have given the management team the benefit of the doubt in that I expected a lot of backed up news to come out once the hurdles of PPA and funding had been cleared. That hasn't happened so I do wonder what they have actually been doing on a 40 hour per week basis.
I think they run the risk of being seen as unable to deliver their core deliverable CBM-Power, and are just saying 'Hydrogen' and 'crypto' as they are buzzwords at the moment. Now I don't actually believe that is the case at all, and I think that H2 will be a great play for them. I have to say that I did cringe when I read them talk about crypto on a recent RNS because it sounded, well cringe. I do get it, as the gas can power a crypto rig and it's some revenue at last - which is good. But in light of what the market is expecting from them I think a lot of eyes rolled.
Overall though I have to remind myself that I still think their strategy is to sell the company and not actually be a power producer. I think the management team are more that way inclined, and I don't see them as a group of project management guys. I did expect us to be 9 months in to the poles and wires being built and am still amazed that it has not started yet.
But I do still think that they are a very good prospect, but they have turned a lot of investors off over the past few years hence the current price slipping down. Might buy a few more it the price hits the '1s' though.
As always, GLA.
I'm going to guess that the body armour and ammunition would have been stuff he'd accumulated over the years in his work. I'm also assuming that he'd have had false passports as part of his job and well, wanted to keep them as they may come in handy some day. Historically soldiers would do similar (except the false passport). I did laugh that one was in the name of Alicia Keys! Maybe he's a fan of hers.
So it could be a round up of Khama's guys and this is a convenient way to put him on trial if he were to be doing a few things behind the scenes that they can't really get him on. Am thinking about my previous post about the slowing down of the PPA process and GG's remarks at the signing ceremony. Just speculation though.
Appiamma - I wasn't aware of GG saying that some in Botswana were slowing the project down, almost to near collapse! I'm guessing he's also being 'political' in his restraint. I have been wondering about the vested interests in importing/trading all that fuel for the current power stations and importation of electricity. Wondering perhaps if said vested interests wanted to seriously delay Botswana's transition to self-sufficiency as long as possible.
But how to do it? If it was me I'd pay bureaucrats to slow everything down to snails pace for as long as possible. The length of time to rewrite the cancelled PPA tender did make me wonder. Plus the time taken to actually get it to signature. I guess it doesn't take much to run everything through a committee that meets occasionally, leave key paperwork in an in-tray for as long as possible, have key people go on leave and miss scheduled meetings etc. Not saying this happened of course but one has to wonder.
Well Tlou does have a perfectly green option, that being solar powered hydrogen production. So if they world went full 'no fossil fuels' which I don't think it can, then we can pursue that option. Moneyweek magazine has a good cover story on this in their Oct 15th edition. As they say "the IEA estimate that global demand for oil will grow 1% or 2% per year and our appetite for gas will expand at least twice as fast." I think we are bang on the money with Tlou and nicely hedged.
I guess some people have an investment philosophy of holding unloved shares for a few years and then selling as they are about to do well. Personally I'll be holding these tightly. The only way is now up and more news such as funding, poles and wires, and hydrogen should follow. The company might even be bought out one day.
Moagi, my thoughts in terms of what does Tlou want to be/do is simply to be sold to a major power/energy provider. I've always viewed them as an upstream company that will sell, which fits with TG's previous companies. Leading from this I think their original plan was purely as a gas to power play, which they can still achieve (I think they will). But over the last 12 months there has been a lot of announcements from companies such as BP and Total that they want to reduce their carbon footprint or go neutral by 2050 (after the current crop of managers have left!). Producing hydrogen and solid carbon from CBM especially if energy input to this process is solar fits in with these goals of the oil majors (I'm sure the oil minors will follow suit with similar goals). It is an easy win for them if they simply buy a producer who has a working set up with all the govt approvals. The 'green' hydrogen thing also allows a buyer easy access to credit if they need it.
So whilst I know that the hydrogen venture looks like Tlou are chasing things outside of their core purpose, viewed in the light of a company setting itself up to be bought, it makes sense (to me anyway) for them to pursue hydrogen concurrently whilst they are waiting for the PPA to drop.
Frustrating? Yes. But my strategy has always been to hold, and only sell when the company is sold. But it would be nice to be in the money on this share for a change.
I agree that the PPA unlocks everything we need to get this rolling, which is really funding and poles/wires being contracted. It's been a very frustrating few years to say the least. The hydrogen move does do one thing however and puts a block on how long this lack of visible progress can continue for. Getting an alternative route to market set up in Q1 next year, and let's say hydrogen generation by Q2 does mean that we don't drift for another year in the doldrums and have released the trapped assets.
It would be lovely to know at what stage this PPA is, but it will come when it comes. And if it does come (eventually) may I be the first to congratulate any long term holders/holdouts, as it's not been easy to hold this baby. I for one won't be selling on news, as waiting 3 years and then leaving when things start to rise is not something I intend to do. I'll hold for at least another two years either way. But as per my original point, at least there is a block to the drift when they start making hydrogen next year.
Well I'm glad the Q2 report is done and out of the way. I was expecting a drop in the share price which is what normally happens, so nice to see a small rise for a change. I wasn't expecting anything new in the report as, well it's a report on the last quarter, so there shouldn't be any new announcements anyway. There have been many false dawns with our expectation of progress, but hopefully we can finally expect PPA and hydrogen news within the next few weeks. Inshallah!
Significant progress will be seen by some here as significant progress, and by others as another 'tantilisingly close' remark. But we all know only time will tell. I've also enjoyed the bickering on this site, which does keep things fresh and stops us falling into groupthink either way. But as I've said before, this forum makes crypto forums sound like country gents by comparison.
I'm interested in hearing more about this hydrogen partner, who they are and ideally a proper plan with time frames to production and a route to market.
Let's hope things get interesting here - in a good way. It's certainly been a long wait, but I keep reminding myself of that Warren Buffet quote 'the stock market is a means of transferring money from the impatient to the patient'. Let's see what the next few weeks bring, and who on here wins the end of August price prediction.
I think these Tlou tweets are a good way for new investors to get a quick snapshot of where Tlou are right now, rather than wading through forums like these and old Proactive Investor interviews. Especially is there is news inbound.
Great news, I thought they would go for this. The question then, is anyone else eligible to tender? Deadline 25th May I think. So maybe a contract award in July. We can add this to the P&W, PPA and funding. I know these three have been delayed and we expected them in Q1 this year, but I see no reason why they are not on track to happen. Frustrating as this all is, it does allow me to put a bit into this years ISA allowance.
It's also good to see some other tweets from Tlou over the past 24 hours. Looks like they are making some older tweets relevant again.