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Swanny - Good luck with your orders. Yes I had noticed the slow down in activity. Hope you able to resume and get round the market and get what you want.
Cumbria, well I did not get my orders cancelled but when the price dropped today they all seem to be being ignored although two dropped in late on, and at lower levels than they were set up for.
Who knows what these dealers are up to, but cheaper is good with me.
No, just got to move over to another account and buy in larger amounts. My 3% target holding was the minimum I want to have for the longer term, but if the price remains low, ie around 15p I will just keep going unless there is some bad news.
I have added about 1% over the last few days as I already had around 1% from the 7p and 20p days, not so good those 20p days! There are a bunch of other people adding here, but have to admit I am nervous about buying over the 18p range before we get some news. Refi territory! If Lookers, Pendragon or TED ever get round to finalising their bids so I can get out, no doubt I will ignore my thoughts and just dump it in here whatever the price and go for a big one.
Swanny27 - That's rich coming form the broker telling you off for apparently manipulating the market, more like you've got the MM's on the back foot for a change and unable to control and manipulate it themselves. So they would want you to place a large order for them to fill, so they have control, report the trade when they want keeping the market in the dark during real time. Well done you, hope that doesn't deter you!
100% agree Swanny, it's only a matter of time before a seismic event will cause this to fly.
I thought it would have been last year but the Wyld IPO turned out to be premature although once they fully launch their system their price will fly as well.
It's been a positive few days and I have a decent holding here so if it ever hits an all time high I would be a very happy man.
Good luck with hitting your 3% target as this may just carry on rising to 20p+ as others seem to be adding as well.
We just need that next big event and everything could change for all LTH's.
Thanks for the reply.
Yes, on about 2% now. Got told off today by my dealer for buying in multiple small amounts, manipulating markets apparently, although it is not just me buying 51k's right now, so looks like I will need to move back to my old account and buy larger chunks going forward. I had a couple of million buys lined up if the price dropped as well so they will probably be deleting these.
None of this matters though, as the price can do what it wants for now, just need the decent holding for when something material happens which should not be far away, so just got to sit tight until that happens. IMO.
Swanny,
Are you still accumulating to try a get to around 3% as you suggested last week?
Some serious volume today and this looks like this rise could continue......
As a LTH I'm hoping so....
GL
Well it's risen above one of my pretty ropey (tbh) resistance/support lines at 16.6. The next line, which looks more reliable, is at 18.8... that would now be resistance and suggests a new range between 16.5 and 19. Above that it's the old 19 to 23 range.
Just wish I'd followed my instincts and flogged my EMH to go in here back at 12. Was too chicken.
Antelope, looks like that 17p easy target has got the better of everyone!
I wonder what will happen next? Going above 18p will open up Al's refi options!
Last year it went to 30p. My gut feeling is we are pretty close to an exit somewhere. Al surely can't justify a placing lower than the last one. Time to start rewarding LTH's
Well I've never shorted, don't know how to and don't want to. But I like your idea of buying twice as much and selling half.
Shorting is dangerous as your loss can be anything whereas when buying all you can loose is what you put in. So you have to be bold to to short and I have done it a few times, Lemonade for example valued at $15b or whatever it was, was a fantastic short, thanks Motley Fool for making it share of the month twice in a row! but really should only be done with poor companies. Lemonade isn't poor but just should have been valued at 1 or 2b not 15b. Much better on TERN IMO is buy twice as much as you want at 12 and sell half at 15. Most of my trading is just to win £1 or £2k so small wins but frequent, and almost always going up not shorting. If TERN then went down a bit just sit tight until it goes back up, which is inevitable due to its various investments and rumours which cause small spikes every now and again.
Shorting does have value sometimes in calling out the bad / fraudulent operators, but far too advanced for me as you don't know the fire power of either side and who blinks first.
Well if anyone is in a position to play with those sort of numbers, they're lucky. The vastly larger proportion of people on here, and those who don't participate on boards, simply cannot afford to play the game at that level. This is bothersome, as it means nearly all of us are at the mercy of the whims of a few, as is the market cap of many small companies, however hard they work. OK, nothing to be done perhaps. Shorting on the other hand should, imo, be banned. How can it be moral for someone to be able to borrow my shares without my knowledge or consent purely with the aim of reducing their value? Of course the lawmakers are wealthy people who, as vested interests, benefit from it, so nothing is likely to change. But perhaps a debate for another time.
I'm minded to have a go.. sell 10k worth at 15 with a view to buying back at 12. But in the past, whenever I've tried this, I've lost badly. I just wish the bang would happen. Then I can get out of this game.
Hey, out of interest when the large seller appeared on Friday afternoon to dampen the price, all that was needed to shoot this straight up to 17p was a purchase of 750k, as I was checking how much was left at around the 15p mark.
I did think about doing this for a minute or two as that could have well caused some forced buyers and cause a spike leading to some really good day trading. However paying 17 for what you can probably pick up at 15 or below next week got the better of me as nothing may have happened.
I definitely would not want to be short on this when the price can be moved so easily, and when the real bang happens it will be very bad day at the office for some people, if there really are some major shorts out there. I guess there must be as you have some negative people posting all day long on ADVFN, so what would be the point otherwise.
I should add I know DA is a private co,but I would have thought we get a say via Tern.Maybe I'm wrong,not sure how it would work.
Swanny-Fair enough and thanks for your reply.
antelope-All stakeholders will have a say in any buy-out of DA including us.The fact is that Al wants US exit values and we know what that means for tech co's,especially global leaders.
Shakeyerbooty, it wont be me selling at 15p, as I have not hit my target holding yet. I will trade a bit if it pops and I still have a few CFD's to sell sometime but am not trading and will just be accumulating for now. Once loaded I will do some more trading as that pays the bills and is generally easy pickings.
I don't know how this works, but if I buy 500k CFD's I do not see a 500k buy in the market to offset this, and it is not that hard to move a small stock like TERN a couple of pence in the market to win the CFD bets, especially when it is at the bottom of its trading range.
I don't know anything about a 51 society, and the buyers I know are just city people that punt a lot on various stocks, and generally do quite well at it.
Swanny raises an interesting point though. To acquire 100% of DA would require the cordinated agreement of Louis Alsop> I wonder to what degree they and Tern talk. And are their objectives aligned?
Swanny-Just a couple of points to pick you up on.I believe you think it will drift back down because you're the one selling around 15p which you openly suggested to Sweepie to do.You believe this will give you more firepower at lower levels,hence we are stuck in this trading range.I must say it's a bit of a risk considering we could get news anytime from DA,Wyld or FVR.I don't believe we have any leaks.Nobody knew about Venafi taking a stake in DA for instance.What current buyers do you know? Are you part of a syndicate (the fabled 51 society)?
I think it's a bit conservative to say that Tern have some 'decent' investments.DA have been acknowledged by ABI Research as THE Global leader in IOT/IAM security ahead of the likes of Entrust (who have revenues of £800m p.a),are working with the US Gov't,Microsoft,Avnet,Ericsson,Venafi,Trusetd Objects,FIDO Alliance etc and are in discussions with GCHQ.Then we have Wyld who have secured many Purchase Orders and are working with Fujitsu,Bayer,Maersk amongst others with commercialisation to connect the other 85% of the earth's surface due H2.Not forgetting FVR who weren't represented at the recent presentation.I wonder why.Could it be an IPO,Series B funding round or even an outright buy.Then there's Konektio and TM making great strides.
Al has stated all our co's are up for sale all of the time,hence nothing to stop them getting an offer out of the blue.He has frequently mentioned about monthly/annual recurring revenues,rule of 40,earnings multiples,bidding wars etc and we know from Darron Antill that DA have just had a fantastic quarter.DA's position is getting stronger & stronger as is FVR's & Wyld's.I am of the firm opinion that something big is in the offing and if I had more cash right now,I would definitely take sellers shares off them now.I note that the two large trades published yesterday show as 'unknown' on LSE,but they're in the price now anyway.GLH.
Plus, whoever is correct doesn't really matter other than if you are correct I might not have all my investment in, as something will happen one way or the other in the end and none of us know when. I am sure we will both have enough in though not to worry about it too much.
A stealth buy out might be the wrong word as the word will be out on the street and the price of TERN will go up, but not up ten fold. Look at Lookers, Cinch bought 20%, wants it all, and they paid over 100p for the 20% but the price is now back to the low 70's. Pendragon has Hedin and Telios (are they in cahoots. who knows) at around 40% and then TED has Toscafund topping up with CFD's etc to 29%. I doubt all these companies have such large shareholdings just because they like the investment so much.
So to buy DA, you need on side TERN, Alsop Louie and the DA management, so you would be talking to all of them, and however much money you have buying a chunk of TERN at basically basement prices, will not only save you money but force the hand of TERN as you will be one of their largest investors so can pull some strings to get the deal done.
I actually think the DA management will have more of a say in this than you think as there is no point buying anything without management buy in, at least until after integration,so let's hope they are highly incentivised.
Thanks for that. But any potential purchaser of DA would be a sizeable corp, like MS of Vanafi or whoever. These orgs couldn't accumulate 30% without it being really obvious. In fact, as holdings above a certain % have to be declared, a stealth buyout would be impossible, surely.
I expect the anouncement of an offer for DA to come out of the blue. There'll be a suspension and a rerate when the suspension ends if the purchase is agreed. And the risk with trading is that you're out when it happens, because it could happen at any time. There need not be rumours. In fact there have been occasions when MS staff have tweeted in such a way that could have been interpreted as hinting at an imminent purchase, but which actually meant nothing.
I confess that thinking this way has cost me a fortune in lost opportunity over the years. But I have had some peace of mind.
Antelope, I think it will drift back down as well, and I know there are a few million buys ready for when it does as there is no point chasing it up in the short term. I am surprised how aggressive it was today as I am sure sellers will appear so you should be able to accumulate a lot of shares at cheaper levels if you chill out. I also know the fire power is enormous and will not run out, irrespective of what Bobsocks thinks. They could buy the whole company if they wanted to.
Personally I think there is no rush because if DA was really worth £500m or whatever, wouldn't the prospective buyer load up on TERN, at least on the quiet to just under 30%, and own around 15% of DA at under a £50m valuation. Hence I think nothing really valuable is in the pipe right now as you always have leaks, so my plan is to accumulate at these low prices and have a very meaningful share when the time is right, whenever that may be. None of the current buyers I know are looking to acquire any of TERN's companies or TERN itself, so we should see much more meaningful action when something really is in the pipeline. We may also have another refi if nothing happens this year which will give a great opportunity to load up very cheaply, so don't put all your eggs in with this possibility out there. TERN management do have a poor track record for shareholders, but I think have some decent investments so is undervalued and should do well in the long run.
I look at TED and Pendragon, both have stalking horses with almost a 30% shareholding which is what TERN requires, so for a short term punt I am on them, albeit if the deals fail I will loose. Lookers is also probably a good punt.
So all in all who really knows, but IMO TERN is a good long term trade.
..what's the prognosis here? Is this another trader driven, short term blip and the price wil soon drift back to 12? Or is it the start of a trend back into the 20s? Swanney, you seem to be in with the trading crowd. What are your thoughts?