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Yes Jones, and oft quoted on here by disciples……… then they realised Belgium was full of coal not oil/gas, got hit by echo trumpeting oil finds that ended up being coal, so rushed for another example that actually had gas and a lot of money to fit into the wishful thinking, hence Qatar.
Jack- no doubt the old chestnut Cove will be aired at some stage
Qatar? Wasn't the marketing blurb from the company stating Belgium?
Next to nothing? How about Fastnet?
Yes, Sound Energy :)
I assume from you answering my question with a question, that you don't know of any deals that came close to a 1328% premium.
Back to the original question though, Soundingoff - do you know of any?
Do you know any examples of a company offering for sale an area twice the size of Qatar, in which commercial gas had already been found, and investors asserting that it was worth next-to-nothing?
@Longwait: The price was 7p when i wrote that, so 1328% premium if you really want to be pedantic.
I asked if there were any examples of that kind of premium being paid for a takeover or asset sale over the prevailing shareprice... That's all.
100p per share would be a premium of 1150 percent, not 1400 percent.
However, I don't think S/O was predicting an offer that high; he was giving his estimate of SOU's valuation.
50p per share would be a premium of 525 percent.
Usually, a takeover results in a premium of less than 100 percent.
Do you imagine that companies will tell Rothschild's: 'We can't offer more than 16p per share because it would look excessive'?
@SO - while I understand your viewpoint that the price we'll get for Tendrara is completely unrelated to the current share price, out of interest do you have any examples where a takeover or asset sale was done at a 1400% premium to the prevailing share price?
'If your estimate of 100p includes Sidi, how much is your estimate for Tendrara alone?'
Around £1 Longwait ;) I've been conservative using the Broker calculations.
"Success doesn't always slap you in the face"... it certainly doesn't.
High risk for me
High rewards for JP
Though the company hasn't achieved a lot
He's been paid my pension pot
....please feel free to continue the composing of this this little aria
On 1o August, S/O, you wrote:
' I took our NPV10 for the Horst and then applied acknowledged broker calculations (on other O&G companies) to our appraisal and exploration assets (including Sidi). It's just coincidence, but my calculations are just over £1 on the very limited data we have. '
If your estimate of 100p includes Sidi, how much is your estimate for Tendrara alone?
right or wrong I would suggest that it would be difficult to justify either of my 2 posts as being those of a "rabid animal" I would challenge whether Horst gives Morocco independence from Algeria for its gas needs- it has the potential to provide gas to certain industrial developments but certainly not to provide all energy needs to Morocco - hence plans for LNG depot and port, along with the investment in renewables.
However it is Sunday, the sun is out in Norwich for now, I don't want to argue, and will return to my wine soaked inane life ( Argentinian Malbec with roast beef today)
Have a great Sunday all
Please trellis, I stated forward not into energy independence. Development of gas fields takes many years and hopefully we have started that for Morocco. The TE5 development will however allow Morocco independence from Algeria, that is a fact is it not? It's rather sad that you have to jump on these words like a rabid animal.
Then 7 minutes later you ruin it by regressing into the realms of supposition and grandiose claims of moving Morocco forward into oil/gas independence based on 600 bcf at Horst(47% of which is ours) and an unproven basin model.
Oh well agreement was good for the few minutes it lasted
SO- you and I rarely agree( and I am sure that you will not be bothered in the slightest by that) but may I say that your last post was excellent, and a realistic summary of the current (perceived) position
'I cannot point to a single success since Te7, and that was sometime ago now...'
Usually small cap O&G companies can only rely on binary drills to advance the company. Clearly we wanted and needed this too. However, despite what some on here say (repeatedly), Sound have moved themselves and Morocco forward in terms of energy independence (TE5 Horst development, seismic/grad programme etc). Success doesn't always slap you in the face.
'Shaun, if you don't think that potential buyers will be referencing the SP in their negotiations u are mistaken.
They will use this as leverage.'
This could be true if we have very little interest in bidding. Those engaged in the process will know there are multiple interested parties but may or may not know if they are going to bid. If we have multiple bidders then their offers will need to focus on our development and exploration assets in their bid. Of course they will also apply some discount for the fact we are running out of time/money. However, given the makeup of our shareholders, the advice given to us by JP and the net cost to shareholders of their shares, bidders will realise it would be a very dangerous game trying to reference the SP. AIMO of course before the shouters pipe up.
We must not forget that most companies that are bid for are valued close to NPV, usually based on earnings, DCF etc. Many also hold additional value in their MCap for potential based on sales targets, new markets etc. Here it's much easier for shareholders to reference this, but for good or bad, Sound have chosen not to provide us with this information. Using broker calculations, I estimate our risked NPV north of £1. These are the reference points for any buyer, but with these situations anything can happen and nothing can be discounted.
'Additionally we raised funds near this value, which was a shockingly poor piece of planning by the mgmt team when they could have raised for 20p a few months before that.'
This is a well used tactic to show funds can be raised easily if need be.
Well said Davey. When push has come to shove, this team has been found wanting.
James said he wasn’t a practising kind of guy, he performed on the day ( something like that said in his ‘Churchilian’ speech ) .....I sincerely hope this is true, but really not holding my breath. I cannot point to a single success since Te7, and that was sometime ago now...
Should have said "they will be referencing sp"
Shaun, if you don't think that potential buyers will be referencing the SP in their negotiations u are mistaken.
They will use this as leverage.
Sure, it doesn't mean the company is worth 7p per share, but it will still be a factor.
Additionally we raised funds near this value, which was a shockingly poor piece of planning by the mgmt team when they could have raised for 20p a few months before that.
Shows a distinct lake of strategy and planning.
James ... that's on you!
"Showing interest" is not equal to "making offer"
I saw 100 people at an "open home" once.
SP is down due to end of year time frames and flakey wording.
How many companies would say to their shareholders that we are taking 6 some time out to see if anyone wants to buy the company. Might be 6 months. Might not.
We will of course all still get paid during this period.
We will make a token reduction in our salaries though, we are fair people after all.
If it's true that more than ten companies have shown interest in Tendrara , then we can reasonably assume that they realise that Tendrara has not been offered for sale so that JP can recommend to shareholders a sale at 7.5p per share.
I think one can reasonably deduce that there would be no point in their having any discussions at all, unless they were prepared to make a reasonable offer if they make an offer at all.
So if I'm right and more than ten companies are considering making an offer of X x 10p per share, then there is a good chance that at least one of them will.
If, say, an offer of 40p per share were made, we will get loads of derisory posts about JP having been proven a charlatan, ridicule of his four-figure predictions, gherkins etc., but those people who predicted 5-10p per share may not look so clever, either.
Shaun, there doesn’t seem to be much point in providing any defence of the underlying value of SOU at the moment. Some people seem intent on picking an argument with any suggestion that there might be parties who see more value in the business than the current share price. I guess that the gas flow measured at TE6 and TE7 must therefore be due to a desert mirage brought on by hallucination and wistful thoughts. Doesn’t really matter in the end. If you, like me, see significantly more value in the shares than the current price, then the LE will either validate our position or prove us wrong. In any event I’m hanging in to find out.
Is that a sober and level headed view from SG47 or ZiggyZig. Oh and anticipating the response: I am a drunken half witted naïve idiot.
£2.50p at least...….. or 50p at least ……. or...…….
Perhaps it’s the realisation you have been sold a pup