The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Now up 8% from 'the bottom'...thanks to Baron...steady buying being followed by the AT trades...lets see
Haven't heard from schlemiel for ages and now I see this daft post:
"Cascabel is huge and ready for development. With BHP and Newcrest on board one would think SOLG would be able to monetise its stake but it seems the mgt is more concerned with feathering their own nest than creating equity value"
Mate...with 20%, creating equity value feathers their nest far more than what you think they're doing...
600 million shares at 40p would be a £200 million gain between them from here...
Interesting...
That can be a problem at your age. Try not to cough too keenly
Just need follow through now...
Looks like this has triggered some steady careful buying...
A sensible read...
'Is it possible to master emotions when trading?'
https://twitter.com/baroninvestment/status/1755492272483823736/photo/1
Love Terry
"Wonder where the bottom is for Solgold, just came up on my radar at 52 week lows, now below 7p"
"Wow one of my first ever small cap picks"
"Not looked at it for some time, was a bit surprised to see it here myself!"
"Bouncing, I suspect from ATL. If it can gain momentum @baroninvestment
is correct, might be a decent recovery play"
What are you talking about? 55% of all volume is off book. Over 1.6m of todays 3.1m volume is not AT
Maybe he’s sniffing around here
The first UT of the day was at 7.46...up 8%...
Since then the SP has fallen 10%...driven by Autotrades...
There has been very little buying or selling by PIs or other investors...
Of the first 148 trades, only 19 of them were non AT trades...
And five of those were by what looks like one plucky investor buying 500k at an average of 3.76 (currently 3.86...)
And into the 6's it goes!
RK1,
Well said. A very good assessment of where we are. I’m in from 2012 what’s another 6-12 mths?
I just invested because red Knight said so looks like we was both wrong
Apart from the fact that rapidly falling or rising shares are fuelled by PIs not wanting to miss out, there is one fundamental underlying factor that is relevant to SOLG...
Liquidity...or lack of it...
People on here and elsewhere keep talking about "the market this and the market that..."
"The market" is neithe heavily selling nor heavily buying shares...
The average daily volume on Solgold is c0.1%...yes NOUGHT POINT ONE per cent of the total shares in issue...
That tells me that nobody is selling and nobody is buying and as I have said earlier, the vast majority of daily trades are AT trades...NOT private investors...NOT institutions..
Indeed I estimate that over the last few months, leaving out the exceptional move in late December, NOUGHT POINT NOUGHT TWO (0.02)% of total shares in issue are traded on an averag daily basis.
So why is nobody buying...? Either because they are fully invested or for fear of losing even more money. They want to see news or a rising share price before stepping back in. If it falls further they may simply chuck the towel in.
But they're not>
Why?
Because they know or at least believe that Cascabel alone is worth way more than the current share price and they are either waiting for 'the market' to recognise that or for the inevitable bidding war for one of the best unmined Tier 1 prospects on the planet.
And why aren't they buying?
Because they are fully invested and they fear the SP will fall further if they buy more and it hurts too much already.
I would venture a bet that virtually nobody is running a profit at the moment on a holding of any meaningful size.
But here's the thing...liquidity in share markets is a double sided coin.
I know from my own experience as an AIM GFD with shareholder responsibility that when there is litlle or no liquidity couple with little or no news, the SP drifts steadily lower and lower...
And even 'insiders' at SOLG acknowledge that AT trades are manipulating the market, steadily dragging it lower...
Why?
At face value it looks stupid...the daily value of their hundreds of trades is immaterial and they must be steadily losing money so it can only be to keep the SP low, which clearly wouldn't be difficult for one or more prospective bidders...
But 20/27 December shows the other side of the coin.
Because of poor liquidity, when good news arrives, the SP will be marked up and PIs (and maybe institutions) will climb back in, driving the price up in a market where the only sellers will be tired investors or short term traders.
So trust me...this hurts right now...but we all still believe we are on the verge of a life changing event...
GLA
Between mid September and late October the SP almost halved, from 14+ to sub 8...
No-one who has been here for any length of time could be unaware of Berry Street Capital's animosity towards SOLG's Board of Directors, culminating in an Open Letter to shareholders.
OK so some of what they said was fair enough but this was a fund with only c1% of the shares which eventually went bust due to apparent incompetence. It was a fund set up primarily for very wealthy investors but eventually it had to be liquidated.
The key thing is, howver, that in any normal cisrcumstances the fund managers or a reciver would contact Solgold and, working with one or two MMs, work the sale carefully through the market to minimise damage to the SP.
Instead BSC dumoed their SOLG shares directly into the market, creating a protracted overhang in what looks suspiciously like a fit of pique.
IMO the SP would have been much lower if Scott hadn't stepped in to buy shares and stabilise the price.
But one thing that these two 'events' have in common is that private investors almost certainly panicked and sold as the share price was dropping, thereby exacerbating the fall. That might have been a smart move for some if they are back in at a much lower cost, but I'm sure MMs will have gleefully hit one Stop Loss after another on the way down...
The final 'event' is the share price rise from 20 to 27 December.
I've already written about that yesterday and I believe it was triggered by the very positive AGM results after investors had feared the worst.
So what conclusions can we draw.
PIs often invest in shares based on hype, a tip, seeing a share price rise rapidly, rumour of such as takeovers, mates recommendations or whatever.
But when those things don't materialise they have to ask themselves two questions:
Do I sell or hold
And if I hold, what do I actually KNOW about this company.
And the fact is that we only really know what is in the public domain. The rest is speculation and rumour.
But what a PI should ALWAYS do BEFORE they buy a share is to research in detail and be absolutely clear why they are buying a share and what their expectations are. If those expectations are unrealised and or do not materialise they have one of three decisions to make:
Do I sell
Do I hold
Do I buy more
Instead many shareholders are driven by one or both of FOMO or FOLO.
And then when things go wrong they are afflicted by the 'British disease'...look for anyone to blame except themselves.
And of course the Company has let them down...
But why have I linked these events?
Ortherncopper, can you point me to who exactly has 'walked away'?? Or are you just making that up?
Tranche #1 is in - GLA.
It is clear that worth to buy now and wait few days to sell with good profit. Lows of the lows now and I can't see any reason for that.
Scott can accuse other SOLG management teams of being incompetent as much as he likes but they all achieved something he has yet to; they created value.
What is under the bonnet is of course important for the long term success of the company but sometimes you've got to give the old girl a clean so she looks her Sunday best, particularly if you're taking her for a spin (raising more capital).
At the moment we're thick with winter muck and there's no sign of any shampoo.
In the first, the share price fell from 36 to 13.76. This was the major reason why the SP has been so deflated for the last several months.
So what happened?
After Darryl became CEO he stopped almost everything to focus on Cascabel. Porvenir was to be the 'next cab off the rank'
This is the opening statement of his Linked In profile:
"Darryl Cuzzubbo is a Chief Executive Officer and Director with over 30 years of experience in roles across a variety of commodities and geographies in both the resources and manufacturing sectors."
What do you notice is missing...? Mining exploration and development...
I am in no doubt that Darryl was appointed to Project Direct the construction of the Alpala mine. PFS2 was completed in April 2022 and the focus then was DFS. But it was Ingo's role to raise the funds, so why did he leave? Because he knew that Alpala could not be funded without massive equity dilution.
But before that, SOLG needed funds. Ingo and Ayten worked on a 'plain vanilla' equity issue but Darryl and Nick wanted to cut out BHP and NCM and they were persuaded by Barclays that they could do a 'cashbox' issue.
This very publicly failed; Ingo and Ayten resigned and the share price started to plummet...it took 6 months to recover after Scott came in.
But meanwhile Darryl had made another massive gaffe.
Sangha had a royalty funding lined up with Osisko but Cuzzubbo once again thought he could do better. Privately he went to FNV to see if he could get a better deal.
This was an act of self sabotage. He was fired and Scott took over and the SP started to recover until it became clear that the merger would take much longer to complete.
Nevertheless it recovered eventually to 22p.
As it became clear that there was much more work to do and a takeover might take longer than we wished, but especially as the copper price drifted from $4.30 to $3.60 and gold from $2085 to $1810, the SOLG SP drifted down again to stabilise around 14/15p, where it would have stayed or even advanced as metals prices stabilised, until the next major 'event' happened...
Been in the data room... analysed it all and walked away. How long has this Data room been open to potential buyers?
Orpherncopper, who's walked away?? Last time I looked BHP were still holders and hadn't sold a share. NMM via NCM still holders. And of course we have new holders in the Chinese state circa 6%+.
So not sure what your are on about with last bit of your post?
We have more key investors involved now than we did 2 years ago. They are not walking away... they are building stakes and that applies to royalty deals too. Not just Franco, but Osisko and probably soon to be Mitsui.
If anyone ever need to know what a prat they are just check out their 10:15 am post…….
They obviously think a £600k portfolio in their 70s is something to boast about…….
I don’t think words can describe what a complete and tool they come across as……..
Orthen. nail on the head,
excellent post as always