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addicknt, we have a valuation on the PEA, so we can go on that, till we get an updated valuation on the PFS.
Those are the only factual figures we can use at this moment in time.
Agreed you have no clue what Actuarial work involves.
Q, every point RK made in one of his responses is correct. There are simply way too many unknowns and you are completely wasting your time attempting to draw-up projections. You don't have a single answer to the points RK raised and I'm afraid to say, you have a very limited understanding of finance. You constantly tell us that this can be financed easily and dilution would be minimal, but actually you don't have a scooby. So why bother with your modelling? What purpose does it serve, other than keeping you occupied during lockdown?
As for valuations, we've had this discussion before. But to repeat your own admission; you've never valued a company on a professional basis before (please don't repeat the suggestion actuaries do it all the time when a company is being sold - they don't), so what on earth makes you think you have any idea about this? Your guess is no better than any else's and no matter how much you 'do the calculations', it's all totally meaningless - particularly as this will sold way before we get anywhere near production.
My point is addicknt, I knew what you said was rubbish, but you and Redknight defended it as fact and insulted me.
So not irony, you and Redknight, not only show no idea of how to value this company, but you can't even do basic mathematics.
Your problem Q is that you are utterly devoid of a sense of humour and irony passes way, way over your head.
I don't know if it's going to be 2035/36/37 or 2075, but the fact remains it simply will never happen.
So, feel free to do all your lovely calculations and pretty spreadsheets - they are all totally irrelevant and a gigantic waste of your precious life.
Well done Redknight, that's my point exactly, we can make estimations at some of those figures, but not others, that's why I asked you and addicknt to show the maths that we don't get a dividend till 2035, 2036.
That statement is rubbish.
I can state what we do know, and that is at PEA with gold at 1300 dollars an ounce, we have a payback of the mine in under 4 years. That was the figure for the Block cave operation.
When the PFS arrives with a cheaper and quicker build, and increased prices for Gold, Silver and Copper, and an increased resource, how on Earth does that mean we can't pay a dividend till 10 years after production.
RK, I believe he was a trainee actuary. He then moved on to fixing computers.
The market is forward looking. If there was a snowballs chance in hell of us paying a dividend in a few years time, we’d be way, way north of 22p. Let’s try to keep it realistic.
You're an actuary...you've made the claim that "a go for gold strategy would bring in revenues close to a billion a year minus costs."...and
"we have the copper and silver and other metals, all prices increasing. Also we get a greater gold take in the early stages, so easier to see how we could achieve just short of a billion, minus costs..."
So...you've challenged addict to produce the figures.
I am happy to take up that challenge on his behalf, but you have to come up with the assumptions, as it is your argument, so...
Which year does mining commence?
How much is open cut and how much block cave?
What levels of copper, gold and silver are produced in Year one?
What is the AISC?
How much has been borrowed to achieve first year production (i.e. what proportion of the total costs of construction?)
What interest rate was paid on the debt?
What proportion of the capital cost is by debt and what by equity?
What are the annual Admin costs in Year one?
How much is spent on E&D for the other projects in Year one.
If there is anything else I'll come back to you but give me those assumptions and I'll come back with the maths this afternoon.
And if you don't answer that challenge you have zero credibility.
You've described addicts claims as rubbish without any specific substantiation, challenging him to come up with the maths to support his claims.
You've made a specific claim yourself. I will do the maths.
Put up or shut up...
Redknight let's have a serious discussion and use your figures just given, as a basis for discussion, I agree 1700 dollars an ounce is reasonable to use in a few years time, but we have the copper and silver and other metals, all prices increasing. Also we get a greater gold take in the early stages, so easier to see how we could achieve just short of a billion, minus costs, which are as you say, plus operational costs.
2035, 2036 before we pay a dividend is beyond silly.
Also worth noting how the PFS may push this faster and cheaper.
ToS agreed and they must learn to deliver on promises/ timelines if they ever want to gain credibility..... either say something and do it or just don’t say it in the first place ..... a conversation I often have with my wife as well :)
Sorry Quady that won't do...
You could at least post the assumptions on which you base today's claims...I posted an aide memoir below for the key factors...I'm happy to do the maths...
But in the meantime here is the maths that you can understand...
To generate £1 billion revenue from gold requires the mining of 825,000 ounces sold at $1700 an ounce...
The AISC, Operating costs, interest costs and E& D costs in year one are exactly the same whether you are mining gold or copper...
Alpala has 21.7 million ounces and a mine life of 55 years...that's 394,000 ounces of gold a year...
I don't claim to know anything about mining but even you must be able to work out that you simply COULD NOT mine, mill, smelt and sell 825,000 ounces in year one...
Over to you...
DBW I’d be lying if I said my initial response was positive, but over time and on reflection, I suspect it was probably for the best. We were clearly headed in the wrong direction, and cooler minds have been able to steer us back towards more realistic and shorter term goals. Regarding the presentation you mention....definitely. A clear strategy, and path to achieve it backed up by a sound financial roadmap is what’s needed, and sooner rather than later.
Told you excuses, I have done so many calculations at various stages and offered them up, no one, has said my calculations were out.
My take on the delay of PFS was positive
We can get the stuff out of the ground from early shallow cuts both faster and quicker..... with the initial CAPEX savings being considerable..... ergo the need for dilution...... perhaps even the reason for passing up a further 50m from Franco??
Hopefully they are working on a presentation that will give us a clear path forward and reduce the need for us all to speculate.
And you know what...he rubbishes peoples posts and demands that they do the maths...
But refuses to do it himself...
He constantly demands FACTS from other posters while declining to put up facts to substantiate his latest ridiculous claims and...
Lile all self opinionated bullies, he believes his best for of defence is attack...
He has managed to alienate most reasonable posters on here, either with rubbish, unsubstantiated claims (posturing as 'facts), or cowardly attacks on even the most reasonable posters...
So...Quady...put up or shut up because right now you have ZERO credibility...
Tos1963 we have gold at 50 metres plus, I think that is why they are expanding the Alapla area.
Quady in two of your recent posts you’ve said.....
“but imagine we announce that we can get an open cut leading to production in two years” which when not challenged, led to
“and at PFS we are going to build cheaper and quicker, that could easily bring it under 3 years”
“ a go for gold strategy would bring in revenues close to a billion a year minus costs.”
Just a friendly reminder that not a single drill or assay result to date has indicated that we have any near surface mineralisation which would support such a strategy. Yes, the PFS was delayed, again, with the stated goal of finding nearer surface stuff which could support open cut near surface work, but we haven’t found any yet. Which you know. Now it’s ok to dream, and post what you want to happen on here, but when you challenge other (more realistic?) posters when they dispute your theory that we’ll be pulling up gold in two to three years and paying a dividend shortly thereafter, that’s too much. I suspect Addicknt suppositions are far nearer reality than yours.
Redknight the loan is for block cave, we have no idea of open cut, may be under a billion, before we are producing, that's my point, we need to wait for the PFS and CFP.
It is ridiculous thinking we will get a bid, remember addicknt said this will be all over by Christmas, once we were released from the standstill last October. It was rubbish then, and is rubbish now.
Redknight if addicknt puts up his calculations and notes, then I will happily check them, that's my skill, but both of you know it's rubbish, so really only expect excuses why he won't put up his calculation.
I apologise for pointing out the obvious Quady...
You are absolutely right that the loan is staged...construction starts in 2022...production in 2026, by which you've drawn down the ENTIRE debt, before you've mined an ounce...
DSop you've actually got huge ACCUMULATED losses to be covered before you even think of paying a dividend...
You've got to MINE the b****y concentrate before you sell it...yes you can presell but you only get paid when you deliver...
You're an actuary...do the maths...come back when you've done it...and then apologise too addict...
You've challenged him to do the maths, but you are skilled in that and you have alll the assumptions to back up the figures, but let me help you for starters...
Year 1,2,3,4,5 production levels in Mtonnes and sales revenue, including assumed copper prices realised
for the same years, Operational costs, interest costs, E&D costs...
Simples...don't come back until you've done that because your wild assertions make you look more and more stupid...
Redknight are you losing it.
If it's 3 billion, the loan will be staged and will not involve interest from day 1 , tell me a go for gold strategy would bring in revenues close to a billion a year minus costs.
rk, if he did that we'd be staring at hundreds of blank posts.
Quady your reply to addictt:
"That post is rubbish...."
is ignorant, pompous, arrogant risible and, frankly 'rubbish'...
Once again I entreat you to stick to what you ACTUALLY understand...
Even if it could be funded entirely from Debt, the annual interest repayments alone if its only $3 billion will still be of the order of
£160 MILLION a year...and rising, as the market is discounting much higher interest rates as early as 2023...
PLEASE reflect before you insult any more of us with your arrant ignorance and inflated opinions...
Redknight we are selling the concentrate, also the open cut is going for rich surface grade gold.