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Boris got himself into a blethering mess in the last announcement apparently unsure what to say re projected figures etc
For those that watched it Prof Whitty was much more contrite. Whatever we do the new variant will certainly lead to greater levels of hospitalisation and mortality.
When people are deeply worried or in shock you try to lessen that anxiety by reassuring them, trying to take their minds off it and saying all will be ok.
So I guess you don’t say ‘Sh*t that vaccine that did work really well might not work too well against a much more transmissible one which may cause a lot more people to need hospital or perhaps die.’
It’s not about convincing people to believe me, I was giving a suggestion as to why Woodstock would be confused.
I ask the question why SAGE has to have behavioural psychologists on board?
COuld it be to help devise a plan for politicians into how to manage how people behave during this?
One way of doing so is to confuse and scare people, there is no debate on whether this is a tried and tested method.
It's important to consider potential side effects of vaccine versus potential side effects of covid itself.
I have known people who are much more ill from the vaccine than from covid.
I really don't understand why people who are not at any serious risk from covid are being encouraged to get the vaccine.
Whilst "the government's advisors are working from the best scientific data available", what the politicians do is another matter all together.
Migsmcl86 - "It’s a psychological tactic which has been used for years. People will do anything when they are scared and confused."
It sounds like you're trying to scare people into believing whatever stupid conspiracy theory you do.
The government's advisors are working from the best scientific data available. But looking at it rationally, if you get your news from second, third or fourth-hand sources it's inevitable that misunderstanding will creep in.
Very good point Matml. 10% will overwhelm any health system, vaccines alone will never be enough.
Woodstock just take a step back and think about this whole thing from about 3 months into it. The information we are giving is designed and delivered in a way to keep us in a state of confusion so that we stay in line as we aren’t sure what to do. It’s a psychological tactic which has been used for years.
People will do anything when they are scared and confused.
Vaccines work but just for balance people should consider what is happening in countries like Chile as well as the UK and Israel. This article from 3 days ago....
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/chile-shuts-capital-santiago-once-more-vaccines-fail-quell-rampant-cases-2021-06-10/
“Around 10% of people, even if they are vaccinated, will not be protected against serious illness. That’s hundreds of thousands of people going to ICUs,” he said. “And when our health system is strained to the limit as it is now, that percentage alone is enough to overwhelm them.”
This is why SNG001 is so important in helping the world get out of this mess.
You forgot chile? Wasn't the astrazeneca vaccine more effective after only 1 jab at 95% after trials? And less so after 2.
Now they want you to have 3 and 1 jab doesn't work! So confusing all this constant BS we're privileged to.
Doc no worries you are welcome.
So much guff under representation over representation simplistic headline grabbing sound bites.
Take it all with big pinch of salt but watch closely what they do not necessarily what they say. Because sadly politicians are apt not to always to tell you the entire truth.
Shocking I know.
It’s all ******
When has the modelling ever been right?
Put ****e in you get ****e out.
As Matthew Mc Conaghan finely put in Wolf of Wall Street, it is all just a fagazzi. Vaccine agenda for sure. Vaccinate the world population for a virus that kills a very very small percentage?
Ludicrous idea.
‘Urgently working on a booster vaccine that we hope will be ready in 100 days.’
This is in effect a ‘new’ vaccine to try to tackle the now dominant Delta variant.
‘Booster’ vaccine is just semantics.
You don’t fix vaccines which work well. The truth is that they have become markedly less effective. I was rubbished here a few days ago for saying this and Delta + would follow before Xmas. Well reported widely in India Delta + is already identified.
Humble pie anybody?
Your correct, the contempt the hierarchy have for the people is beyond belief.
So while BJ apologies With a heavy heart for destroying people’s live he and his G7 mates are flouting all the laws he’s asking the public to abide by.
The lot of them will be in Court - just hope the Judge is not from the ‘The Garrick’ club.
Woodstock, just follow the leaders, turn off the BBC, and have a BBQ by the sea with a few friends and everything will be all right. ;->
Woodstock,
The agenda is to get everyone living man jabbed with a gene therapy.
Remember it was to protect the vulnerable, then the 60’s, 50’s, 40’s, 30’s now they kids.
Bombs should be going of in people’s heads’s - 99% survival rate.
The reason why emergency laws were extended - to continue the rollout of this untested synthetic.
And here's another one.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medical/results-from-novavax-vaccine-trials-in-the-uk-and-south-africa-differ-why-and-does-it-matter/ar-AAL1RHu?ocid=msedgntp
The conflicting information from Sage, the government and media regarding the vaccine effectiveness is confusing.
Checking government statistics, the mortality rate is significantly lower than June 2020. However I worry when Sage start saying we could see 500 deaths a day.
I remain confused, very very confused.
Absolute rubbish doc! We've herd all this unsubstantiated tosh before about vaccine efficiency..
Where's the actual research papers and evidence to show this vaccine efficiency as I'm inclined not to take Boris word for it.
Why are they jabbing millions of people with post infection antibodies/natural immunity (lasts 8 months) and then including them in vaccine efficiency statistics?
'Delaying Step 4 for 5 weeks, so that it coincides with the school vacation period is expected to have a larger effect in the short term helping to flatten the summer wave and reducing the number of deaths from 49,700 (35,600-67,200) to 43,500 (31,200-62,900) and peak deaths from 700 (500-1,200) per day to 500 (300-800) for the medium / central immune escape scenario and 50% increase in transmissibility for the Delta'
This takes into consideration the step 4 delay.
As for the vaccine efficacy you are quoting its based on many assumptions, estimations and very wide confidence intervals. The efficacy is not based on absolute numbers. I suspect its been released to give a positive picture by govt. You can see the model here.
https://khub.net/web/phe-national/public-library/-/document_library/v2WsRK3ZlEig/view_file/479607329?_com_liferay_document_library_web_portlet_DLPortlet_INSTANCE_v2WsRK3ZlEig_redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fkhub.net%3A443%2Fweb%2Fphe-national%2Fpublic-library%2F-%2Fdocument_library%2Fv2WsRK3ZlEig%2Fview%2F479607266
Apologies for the editing but LSE removed it so wall of text :0
However please read the report showing what govt scientists are predicting. Optimistic case scenario 43,500 deaths in Summer wave ;/
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993361/S1290_LSHTM_Roadmap_Step_4.pdf
Latest on roadmap data and modelling of the India variant.
? Implementing roadmap Step 4 as planned is likely to exacerbate this and lead to a third wave of infection, peaking in August or early September 2021. Under most scenarios, this summer wave would be smaller than the January 2021 wave, in terms of hospitalisations and deaths, but comparable to the April or October 2020 waves. Under more pessimistic scenarios of high immune escape and high transmissibility of Delta B.1.617.2 (70% more than Alpha B.1.1.7), it is possible that the summer wave could exceed the January 2021 peak in terms of hospitalisation and deaths. The size of the peak depends strongly upon the levels of mobility (and hence social mixing) reached following Step 4, and accordingly changes to Step 4 policies may have a large effect on the dynamics of the summer wave.
? The model projects that more than half of the hospitalisations and deaths occurring in the summer 2021 wave will be in unvaccinated individuals, with admissions being split relatively evenly between the 45-64, 65-74 and 75+ year age groups. Deaths are likely to be concentrated in the 75+ age group.
? Delaying Step 4 of the roadmap is likely to have an impact in the short term, reducing the impact of the summer wave. A two week delay has a modest impact, reducing deaths as measured until the end of October 2021 from 49,700 (35,600-67,200) to 48,500(34,400-66,900) for the medium / central immune escape scenario and 50% increase in transmissibility for the Delta B.1.617.2 variant. Delaying Step 4 for 5 weeks, so that it coincides with the school vacation period is expected to have a larger effect in the short term helping to flatten the summer wave and reducing the number of deaths from 49,700 (35,600-67,200) to 43,500 (31,200-62,900) and peak deaths from 700 (500-1,200) per day to 500 (300-800) for the medium / central immune escape scenario and 50% increase in transmissibility for the Delta B.1.617.2 variant
? Taking further measures to reduce the summer wave, such as delaying Step 4 until all adults have had both vaccine doses, instigating a circuit-breaker lockdown or moving back to Step 2 measures is likely to largely negate the impact of the summer wave, unless pessimistic assumptions regarding immune escape and transmissibility are adopted (Tables 6 and 7 and Figures 9-12). Note, however, that the more stringent the short term measures are, then the larger the bounce-back in cases later in the year (Figures 9-12), when schools will be open and other seasonal factors are less favourable. Indeed, for these reasons even the 2 or 5 week delay to Step 4 can result in modest increases in morbidity and mortality when measured until the end of the year (Tables S3 and S4) as more cases are pushed back into the autumn.