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Valuation will come down to orders for stockpiling in preparation for next winter. If the P3 proves efficacious for hospitalised patients most western economies will ensure they have adequate supply for next few winter in case of a big resurgence in cases. Most health authorities are expecting and will be preparing for this despite current vaccination. If the home trial proves a success in the UK/US and there is statistically significant evidence of reduction in long covid from any of the trials then there is large potential here for future home use for both sympotmatic and asymptomatic cases. That is where the bull case becomes feasible.
The message however is clear however. Covid is now endemic. It's mutations are effective at getting around current vaccinations and MABS and hence there will always be a need for treatments and reworking of vaccines to ensure what happened in 2020/21 does not happen again.
Sure, let's leave it here. What has changed is the instant reaction that strong p3 results will have. Released to fanfare in the middle of the winter wave before vaccines were being rolled out and the chance of the share price rallying to dizzying heights was high. Now the share price should reflect reality much more than a crazy fomo price.
I am of the opinion that £25+ is achievable, but I believe the results really have to be stellar, not just positive, enough that it brings all the potential uses into sharp focus. That could well be the case still.
a small 'minority', even...:-)
Harchris,
Seems to me very few on here thought the SP might reach £50, a small majority perhaps?
Not quite all the rest of of us in any case.
I'd guess a lot of people flutter from £10? upwards for a slice of the Covid/COPD drug market, in which case, the chance of our expectations being met has probably not much diminished, assuming trial results are as favourable as we expect based on P2.
£50 is insane but I don’t agree that it’s gone now.. the opposite actually, now that everyone knows and sees the costs associated with covid and when vaccines won’t make a difference due to new strains, (eventually they will get everything right and covid will become less potent) governments will be happy to throw couple of billion just to make sure the first line of defence is available.. even if we count 8/10m treatments globally (I think it will be more, but not sure we could supply that) you can start to see that our mc can reach £15/20b mark which is insane... obv everything has to go right for this to happen and there are risks in every part of our journey.. Realistically in case of success (fda giving a green light and orders during summer) I can see us being sold around £5b mark which would be £25..
Matt, that's a good point, I get that. Still, GW was taken out for $7b so half of £10b. Not playing down the potential of SNG at all but I'm with Doc that the chance of a sp in the realms of £50 has gone.
I'll happily exit without any regrets at £10-£15, if the rest of you get five times that then brilliant!
Harchris.... there must be more than 2 UK pharma's worth more than £10b? Astra must be worth £100b +?
***********************
I believe it's just AZN and GSK, which are considerably larger than £10b.
Harchris.... there must be more than 2 UK pharma's worth more than £10b? Astra must be worth £100b +?
That’s why most European biotech stocks move across to the Nasdaq.
I can see where Doc is coming from, after all £50 a share would make synairgen the third largest pharmaceutical company listed in the UK - bit of a stretch?!
Well done Rupert
You got it out there with good revisions.
It's interesting that a few of the specialists at Stanford are keen on interferons in general and Synairgen in particular. Certainly Active 2 is vital and I expect USA is now our prime target market.
Doc
I think you are trying to rein in expectations quite understandably but after listening to a couple of interviews of Janet Wood**** the boss of the FDA she is concerned that although the approved mAbs are available on the shelves in the hospitals they are sitting there unused. It appears that the doctors are not keen and I am sure it is not cost. Probably more difficulty in setting up I/V etc.
Spinnaker
Org, yes, of course you're right about there being competition out there, but I slightly took the view that to comment on each possible competitor (and there are several emerging each week) would be long-winded and wouldn't add much to the discussion. In the end, I think we have to form our own views. Personally, I'm not impressed by ivermectin, while I think that, for example, camostat mesilate looks interesting, but I could be wrong and in any case I don't frankly put much value on my own opinions. You would have to have knowledge way beyond most of us to assess each one.
Great work all.
Mabs like Regeneron seem relatively effective but their Achilles seems to be how specific they are.
Anybody an idea how long they take to rework against new strains?
Thank you for sharing these, Tip and Scinv. I was looking for the Stanford quote (Stanford is killing it these days...Rishi, Silicon Valley).
About Mabs said this new earlier today,
Regeneron ****tail Stumbles Against SARS-CoV-2 Variant in Vitro
A treatment of two monoclonal antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 is ninefold less effective in the lab against the B.1.351 variant than against the dominant version of the virus.
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/regeneron-****tail-stumbles-against-sars-cov-2-variant-in-vitro-68503
Very good article Rupert
Doc, thanks. You'r right about my not saying much about maBs, but that's deliberate. As I understand them (and I will happily bow to better judgment) is that they are expensive to produce, they are not agnostic, and they require hospital supervision. I therefore don't think they are a strong competitive threat to SNG001 (assuming it works, of course).
Many thanks Org and others. It was written for PMJH's Reddit site and replaces an earlier piece that got deleted. Apologies therefore to anyone who experiences a bit of deja vu on reading it.
TipTop09 just shared the first 1/4 of the article, the full article is here.
https://www.reddit.com/r/synairgen/comments/lwyjyc/synairgen_an_investment_brief_by_rupert_marlow/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Nice one Scinv. All very positive.
That was a nice read. Thank You. All information I was aware of but liked the concise summary. Without sounding too rampy, I think the £8 is an underestimate if SNG001 does everything I’m expecting it to do.
Synairgen - An Investment Brief by Rupert Marlow – 3rd March 2021
*Please read the disclaimer at the end of this note*
LON: SNG
OTC: SYGGF
FRA: OMY
* **Synairgen’s inhaled antiviral, SNG001, reduced progression to severe disease by 79% in a UK Phase II Trial for hospitalised Covid-19 patients**
* **Results due shortly for further Phase II and III Covid-19 Trials in UK, US and globally**
* **Assuming these confirm earlier results, approvals and significant orders should follow**
* **Potential for stockpiling against future pandemics and in COPD market**
# Summary
Synairgen is a UK-based biotech that has developed an inhaled treatment, called SNG001, which evidence suggests is a highly promising drug in the fight against Covid-19. Originally, and still, intended as a broad-spectrum, respiratory antiviral, it has a naturally-occurring protein, interferon beta-1a, as its active ingredient. SNG001 is currently in several Covid-19 trials awaiting results, and for a company of its size to have made the progress it has is an astonishing achievement.
The trials in progress are as below. SG018 includes a Long Covid-19 study that will report possibly in Q3 2021:
![img](as1onc98nuk61)
The [ACTIV-2 trial](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/four-potential-covid-19-therapeutics-enter-phase-2-3-testing-nih-activ-2-trial) is under Operation Warp Speed, and will be especially important in determining Synairgen’s future. At any time, we may get an indication of a switch from Phase II to Phase III, which would be a strongly positive signal.
SNG001 has three strong competitive advantages. First, evidence suggests that it is particularly effective, possibly unrivalled, in the early stages of disease progression. Secondly, its being agnostic, as opposed to virus-specific, means it will work against mutant variants of Covid-19. Thirdly, it is easy to administer.
But SNG001 is potentially much more than a Covid-19 therapeutic. Governments will need to stockpile effective agnostic antivirals against future respiratory epidemics, and SNG001 has shown promise as an antiviral for COPD patients. Placing a value on all this is difficult, and although this note suggests a target price of £8, SNG001 is likely to be either a comparative failure or an emphatic success. There are sound reasons for thinking the latter is more probable, but the risks are unusually high.
# Background
Synairgen was established in 2003 by three professors from Southampton University, and its shares were listed on AIM in June 2005. The first project was to assemble a BioBank of samples in order to build models of respiratory diseases, particularly asthma and COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and research how these might be treated.
In time this led to the development of SNG001, which is inhaled directly into the lungs, in a formulation that is pH neutral, once a day for 14 days, by means of an Aerogen S